Why Obama will win...

[courseofhistory]

As of October 25, 12:02PM EDT:
Obama: 294
Romney: 244
Meta-margin: Obama +1.60%

Princento Election Consortium: (go to link to see beginning of article)

1. President Obama would be a bit more likely to win. This is false – he’s a lot more likely to win. Look at the Princeton Election Consortium’s EV histogram, which tabulates all 2.3 quadrillion possible combinations of states to give a clear snapshot of the race'. In a race today, President Obama would win with about 90% probability. The true probability is even higher, since the Meta-Analysis does not correct for individual pollster errors. We could – but the political blowback from unskewing polls is too large.

2. There seems to be a whiff of momentum toward Mitt Romney. Ah, yes…Ro-mentum! Bobo has taken the bait. He is probably looking at other aggregators, where for various reasons (q: do you want me to write about that sometime?) the real trends are harder to see. Let’s roll the instant replay.


As you can see, Ro-mentum ended around October 11th, the date of the VP Biden-Ryan debate and reversed around October 16th, Debate #2. Now the median EV expectation is at a plateau around Obama 293 EV, Romney 245 EV. Viewed through the all-important Electoral College, Obama has a Popular Vote Meta-Margin lead of 1.5%. This measure is precise to within <0.5%, far better than any single poll. If anything, the race is starting to look a bit static. Of course, some change may well happen over the coming 12 days. Based on past races (see “The Presidential Predictor sharpens,” Sept. 29), here is how much movement we can expect.

SEE LINK for the rest

He talks about how the meta-margin will not move all that much in the next 12 days which means Obama has a strong likelihood of winning.

Meta Margin Explained: (from a different article)

Instead, the Meta-Analysis uses an overlooked method to calculate the probability of getting an exact number of electoral votes, covering all ways of reaching that number given the individual state win probabilities. This is a much easier problem – it can be solved in less than a second. Here is a simple example.

Imagine that there are just two states. State 1 has EV1 electoral votes and your candidate has a probability P1 of winning that state; in state 2, EV2 electoral votes and a probability P2. Assume that EV1 and EV2 are not equal. Then the possible outcomes have the following probabilities:

EV1+EV2 electoral votes (i.e. winning both): P1 * P2. EV1 electoral votes: P1 * (1-P2). EV2 electoral votes: (1-P1) * P2. No electoral votes: (1-P1) * (1 – P2).

 

[The Infidel]

 

[Listening]

Cohisfos

 

[buckeye45_73]

LOL, the best part of this is now liberals LOOOOOVE the ellectoral college (and I do as well)....Funny how liberals only support things when they think it's in their interest (and Romney is gonna win in the EC)

 

[decker]

As of October 25, 12:02PM EDT:
Obama: 294
Romney: 244
Meta-margin: Obama +1.60%

Princento Election Consortium: (go to link to see beginning of article)

1. President Obama would be a bit more likely to win. This is false – he’s a lot more likely to win. Look at the Princeton Election Consortium’s EV histogram, which tabulates all 2.3 quadrillion possible combinations of states to give a clear snapshot of the race'. In a race today, President Obama would win with about 90% probability. The true probability is even higher, since the Meta-Analysis does not correct for individual pollster errors. We could – but the political blowback from unskewing polls is too large.

2. There seems to be a whiff of momentum toward Mitt Romney. Ah, yes…Ro-mentum! Bobo has taken the bait. He is probably looking at other aggregators, where for various reasons (q: do you want me to write about that sometime?) the real trends are harder to see. Let’s roll the instant replay.


As you can see, Ro-mentum ended around October 11th, the date of the VP Biden-Ryan debate and reversed around October 16th, Debate #2. Now the median EV expectation is at a plateau around Obama 293 EV, Romney 245 EV. Viewed through the all-important Electoral College, Obama has a Popular Vote Meta-Margin lead of 1.5%. This measure is precise to within <0.5%, far better than any single poll. If anything, the race is starting to look a bit static. Of course, some change may well happen over the coming 12 days. Based on past races (see “The Presidential Predictor sharpens,” Sept. 29), here is how much movement we can expect.

SEE LINK for the rest

He talks about how the meta-margin will not move all that much in the next 12 days which means Obama has a strong likelihood of winning.

Meta Margin Explained: (from a different article)

Instead, the Meta-Analysis uses an overlooked method to calculate the probability of getting an exact number of electoral votes, covering all ways of reaching that number given the individual state win probabilities. This is a much easier problem – it can be solved in less than a second. Here is a simple example.

Imagine that there are just two states. State 1 has EV1 electoral votes and your candidate has a probability P1 of winning that state; in state 2, EV2 electoral votes and a probability P2. Assume that EV1 and EV2 are not equal. Then the possible outcomes have the following probabilities:

EV1+EV2 electoral votes (i.e. winning both): P1 * P2. EV1 electoral votes: P1 * (1-P2). EV2 electoral votes: (1-P1) * P2. No electoral votes: (1-P1) * (1 – P2).

i understand that but i worry obama still 3% behind in gallup and ram and that not good with 12 days to go

 

[cereal_killer]

I have no dog in this fight but when people start throwing meta-margins, super novas, and magnetic fields into the mix, it's nothing more than nonsense. Throw enough complex sounding theories and mathematics at anything and people will believe. It's called grasping at straws.

Save yourself the time and wait until November 6.

 

[decker]

I have no dog in this fight but when people start throwing meta-margins, super novas, and magnetic fields into the mix, it's nothing more than nonsense. Throw enough complex sounding theories and mathematics at anything and people will believe. It's called grasping at straws.

Save yourself the time and wait until November 6.

true november 6th vote is one that matters in the end