On TV Wednesday night, Obama will give what one aide described to me as a meaty discourse on his basic tax and health-care proposals. No high-flown rhetoric, but rather a briefing paper for wary undecided swing voters---most of whom, the campaign thinks, are soft Republicans who kind of want to vote for Obama but need reassurance.
Consumer confidence is at an all-time low. The job performance rating of the outgoing Republican president is at Nixon-Carter levels. Nine out of ten voters think the country is off on the wrong track. The Democrats lead in the generic congressional preference vote by a double-digit margin.
Obama has outspent McCain on TV advertising three or four to one
Obama has four thousand paid organizers in key states, an unheard of number.
Most voters think that McCains running mate is not qualified to be president.
Many people wonder aloud if McCain is in fact too old (72) to be president.
Obama is one of the most winsome, charismatic candidates to have appeared on the scene in decades.
Still, in todays traditional Gallup Daily Tracking Poll (the one that screens likely voters most rigorously, based on past votes), Obama leads McCain by only two percentage points, 49 to 47 percent.
Its hard to make the Electoral College numbers add up for McCain. He has to win all of the current tossup states (Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina and Florida), plus Ohio and Virginia and one of the following three: New Hampshire, Colorado or New Mexico. That isnt just drawing one inside straight; thats drawing a whole casinos worth of them.
So why hasnt Obama run away with this?
Because the country remains culturally divided. Because the more it looks like Democrats will score huge gains in Congress, the more worried soft Republican voters get. Because McCain has succeeded, in the minds of some of those voters, in raising the hoary specter of tax-and-spend liberals.
Because Obama hails from a place (South Side Chicago)
Because of Jeremiah Wright, Ayers & Rezko
And, to a degree we cannot measure and may never fully know, because Obama is an African-American---and one with a Swahili name at that.
Race to the Finish : Why It?s Still a Race
Consumer confidence is at an all-time low. The job performance rating of the outgoing Republican president is at Nixon-Carter levels. Nine out of ten voters think the country is off on the wrong track. The Democrats lead in the generic congressional preference vote by a double-digit margin.
Obama has outspent McCain on TV advertising three or four to one
Obama has four thousand paid organizers in key states, an unheard of number.
Most voters think that McCains running mate is not qualified to be president.
Many people wonder aloud if McCain is in fact too old (72) to be president.
Obama is one of the most winsome, charismatic candidates to have appeared on the scene in decades.
Still, in todays traditional Gallup Daily Tracking Poll (the one that screens likely voters most rigorously, based on past votes), Obama leads McCain by only two percentage points, 49 to 47 percent.
Its hard to make the Electoral College numbers add up for McCain. He has to win all of the current tossup states (Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina and Florida), plus Ohio and Virginia and one of the following three: New Hampshire, Colorado or New Mexico. That isnt just drawing one inside straight; thats drawing a whole casinos worth of them.
So why hasnt Obama run away with this?
Because the country remains culturally divided. Because the more it looks like Democrats will score huge gains in Congress, the more worried soft Republican voters get. Because McCain has succeeded, in the minds of some of those voters, in raising the hoary specter of tax-and-spend liberals.
Because Obama hails from a place (South Side Chicago)
Because of Jeremiah Wright, Ayers & Rezko
And, to a degree we cannot measure and may never fully know, because Obama is an African-American---and one with a Swahili name at that.
Race to the Finish : Why It?s Still a Race