Rethinking Future - Israel's emerging cultural revolution
I've mentioned this before, something new is going on in the Israeli discourse.
With the recent global developments in the last 10 years, and the emergence of independent and very influential free thinkers taking the internet by storm globally, the Israeli web sphere has of course followed suit, as much as this intellectual phenomena engaging the free world.
But here it's typically different, way less formal and antagonist.
The discourse, though dealing with most complicated and loaded topics,
while with top experts, is rather very casual and inviting to the wide range of opinions,
no one tries to empress or "cancel" anyone, rather actually engage people to think critically,
engaging in a more eye to eye informal conversation.
To this of course adds, the Israeli chutzpah, and the feeling of physical proximity,
Israelis can literally watch a video with someone who gets them curious, inspired,
and the next day sit with them for a coffee, or engage them otherwise at no effort.
The whole conduct of the discourse is different - for example, Dr. Roi Yozevitch,
from my previous post on "Your Nation's IQ, one of these new emerging intellectual figures,
is a computer scientist, who essentially uses his channel to reach for the best experts abroad and in Israel, from English teachers, writers, Rabbis to Knesset ministers - for perspective on today, and just about any big question that interests him in life, and engage them and the audience in the process of attempting to challenge himself, and synthesize the new information and if needed reach new conclusions.
Alex Tseitlin, also coming from the high-tech industry, as many in Israel,
has initiated a forum called "Coming to the Professors" where he engages people from the Israeli academia, media, politics, to answer the most curious and debated questions about Israel's past, present, and most important - future as an emerging regional leader, and global leader, with all the challenges it brings. But again despite such loaded topics, the way these conversations are held is very casual, though not in the video with Dr. Stayetsky, usually at someone's dinner table or sitting on the balcony.
These are just two examples of this new Israeli blogger scene. Other who have emerged very recently ,during just the last year, are already fundamentally shifting the Israeli discourse, yet remain mainly unnoticed in the West, while gaining much influence in the Middle East.
I will try to keep posting under this title as a series, to introduce these folks, but also just to sum up some of their main ideas for myself. And bring up interesting questions that are never seen here in the repetitive way the I/P discourse goes...some of these may deserve their own thread.
Here we go:
Episode from 'Coming to the Professors' -
Alex Tseitlin in conversation with Dr. Daniel Stayetsky:
Israel a small or a big country?
The demographic power of Israel in past and future
Dr. Satyetsky's opening quote:
"Let's begin with my main point, that may look surprising to Israelis, there's today more than 9 million Israelis, and my main point as opposed to what is commonly thought is not a small country.
That's a claim that I'll show data to support, and I'll show Israel in the frame of comparison to European, Mediterranean and Middle Eastern spheres. To show what I perceive the true status of Israel, rather her imaginary one."
Key points of discussion:
- In comparison to Europe (00:00-20:30)
- In minute 6:13 Dr. Sayetsky presents a table comparing Israel to European countries by population, showing it already now firmly in the middle, having population the size of most/average European countries, with only 9 countries like Netherlands, Ukraine,
Germany, France etc significantly bigger, with the leader of course being Russia.
- Compared to Israel, there're more smaller countries in Europe, than bigger ones.
- When taking out giants like Russia, Germany, France etc, and examining the category to which most European countries belong, in comparison, Israel stands firmly in the middle. (10:20)
- Main causes at hand :
a. Dr. Stayetsky: "Israel's very high natural growth, unprecedented in comparison to Europe.That has nothing to do with Arabs or the Orthodox - the average fertility of a woman in Israel, even taking these two groups out of the equation, remains high. But essentially there's no need to take those two groups out, Israel's fertility is what it is, and it's high."
b. Opposite process - "Europe's demographic decline, not catastrophic, it's slow,
but it's happening. And today a big portion of countries in Europe don't grow anymore.
- Forecasts for the next 35 years (minute 16:40).
Israel's position in the category in 2020 compared to 2055.
- In comparison to the Middle East (20:30- end)
- While Egypt being the "Russia" of the middle east, the table ( 26:10) demonstrates the same average category of the region, Israel standing firmly in the middle.
- Libya and Lebanon are actually smaller, with Israel's new friends from the Gulf,
the UAE being about the same population size, soon to level and exceed.
- 2020 vs 2055 - at 31:00 table shows the population of Israel to outgrow Syria, eventually leading in the average category, with the middle east still dominated by the region's main demographic giants like Morocco, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia etc.
- Official CBS forecast estimates Israel's population in the 2nd half of the 21st century
at 20-24 million, reaching the category of countries like Algeria and Yemen.
Summary and closing points:
Dr. Stayetsky : "Why was it important to talk about this?
I've noticed that recently You've been inviting people to Your channel, whose common denominator, if that can be said, they're dealing with the question " Israel heading where?" something like that"
Alex Tseitln: "Yes that's a subject under which I bring a lot of experts, and we try together to really understand where we are moving, where Israel should head, what are our directions of development, and also want to see whether there're existential threats, and how to solve them".
Dr. Satyetsky: "Exactly. I think that is one of the most blessed initiatives, and this is my contribution to this initiative, if I must summarize how I see what I've presented.
From my perspective, it's very important that in each period and period, we have relevant data , and that we write our political program on the basis of that data. Now everything I've shown wasn't relevant relatively recently. Let's assume, and I'll exaggerate as much as I can - in the 19th century Theodor Ze'ev Herzl wrote a Zionist political program, he somehow estimated the condition of the Jews, and thought it was the call of the hour, demand of the time.
Wrote a book called "New-Old Land", was politically active to promote his program. Not everyone accepted it, and that's totally normal politics, why should the whole nation agree on anything, there were people who wanted someone else, he had supporters and opposition.
50 or 70 years fast forward, Ben-Gurion's politics and writing, metaphorically he wrote a different book. He didn't deal with what program to write, but how to build the state, how to absorb immigration, how to develop economy - that was the call of the hour.
What I'm saying is that since then a lot of time passed, and Israel's population grew and changed, and that is indication, foundation of what is called the Hebrew civilization, or Israeli civilization, if You choose. And it's relatively big in comparison to the European arena, and it's important to understand. All further political programs should be derived from this understanding of the reality.
In the table I've presented, at the very beginning, part of European countries were painted red,
Those are names of countries that once, at some point in history developed empires. And one can see there's no correlation between the imperialist thinking and the size. And they were smaller in the past, acting in the smaller world.
Sweden is one of those countries, not commonly known, that developed a European empire.
Portugal developed an exo-European empire and left her language and culture in the country called Brazil. Meaning there were several models of what's called 'cultural influence', continental as Russia, Poland and Sweden, and there were those who sailed across oceans.
But that's irrelevant today, this is not how empires are built today, rather they're built through the transfer of cultural contents - and this is exactly what I mean."
A. Tseitlin: "I totally agree with You, I think that at first stage the goal of Zionism was to establish a state, and the state was established. And today we're 70 years after, or a 100 depending if You look at the beginning of the Zionist movement, and it's time we ask ourselves what we do next.
And I think that today we're, also from the demographic perspective, which was important to understand today, also economically, also from the cultural perspective - we're today the only body capable of leading the Middle East, because we have this basis, also historic, cultural and idealistic. As much as our ideas influence Europe through the Book of Books, so they have to influence the Middle East, and we have to be not another player, rather really lead, maybe as a coalition of countries, lead them.
As in our past, they say the king of Israel was among the heads of the Levant royal coalition, while cooperation with Aram-Damask, which wasn't easy at the time, the countries weren't at much good relations, nevertheless these two countries lead the kings of Levant to war with Assyria and represented this Levanatism, however we call it. But essentially our idea, it's our idea that we're continuing. Also today we have to lead together with countries like Saudia maybe, which are rich in resources and money, yes lead the Middle East.
And what You're saying, what supports it demographically, it's also very important data, because the power today is really of course demographic, but it's also economic, historic, spiritual and also demographic, because I think the amount of people of course has influence.
Dr. Stayetsky: "Ill only say and finish with this - somewhere along the discussion I've mentioned Theodor Ze'ev Herz and his book, and I'll finish with his words. In the motto of his book he has written -
"If You will, it ain't a legend"...correct? A well known phrase. No one read the book, but everyone knows this. What no one knows is the second part of that phrase -
"If You will not, everything I've written here for You, remains but a legend, just a legend I've told".
And the one who understands will understand.
A. Tseitlin: "I think it's a very important message. People are telling me I'm crazy, that I don't understand our problems, and where we at, and that makes me laugh. Because if we look at the challenges the Zionist movement has passed a century ago, and during these 100 years, what am I even talking about? Right now beside us are parked 4,000 tanks, we have nuclear bombs, we have the strongest air force in the Middle East. Today we have problems? We have no problems, the only problem is lack of thought.
I'll even say it in a vulgar way - we have created a new nation, the Israeli nation.
The Israeli nation is different from the Jewish nation. The Jewish nation had this analytical brain and immense thinking power. We have received a lot from the local characters of the Levant nations, but we missed a bit from the Jewish power of thinking. I think that our Israeliness, our Israeli 'chutzpah', and the Israeli initiative, which are positive characters, we should still add what we have attained during the 2000 years of exile, the Jewish wisdom.
And that's what I'm trying to do with my channel".
