When the next Great Recession hits, how will republicans respond?

[zeke]

Show me anyone starving in this country.
Our problem is obesity, not starvation.

Hey rabbit, head on down to your local food bank or soup kitchen and ask any of those folks if they would be starving without food handouts.

 

[g5000]

The thing about the CDO chain is that the person at the beginning of the pipeline is the one making the loan. If he can sell that loan before the ink is dry, and he doesn't have to keep a piece of that loan on his books, then what has happened to the incentive to do due dilegence on the borrower?

It has vanished. In fact, the broker has an incentive to make as many loans as possible now. More loans means more profits he makes for selling them into the pipeline. He has ZERO risk. All the risk goes into the pipeline.

Then the broker-dealer (Goldman Sachs, et al.) bundle those loans into CDOs and sell all those cups to the investors. They also have no risk. They are getting fees for building and managing the CDOs. All the risk is on the buyers of all those cups. They have the risk of the artificial river drying up on them before they get to dip their cup in the revenue stream.

The whole game of a CDO is to dip your cup into the stream and get more money out than you paid for your cup before the river dries up.

It is much worse for the buyer of a synthetic CDO. They are risking having to shell out more than they invested in the cup!

Remember that $200,000 house that had ten insurance policies against it? When it burns down (the loan defaults), someone has to pay $2 million to the people who bought those policies.

The synthetic CDO investor paid fifty bucks for their cup, got eight dollars (if they were lucky) as their share of the premiums revenue stream, but now they have to cough up $2 million.

 

[g5000]

Lehman Brothers wanted to ensure their pipeline could never be hijacked/outbid by other broker-dealers, and so they bought their own supply chain of mortgage brokers to make sure they would never run out of loans to be fed into their CDOs. They had exclusive feeds into their chain.

And they were not subject to the CRA. And they went to the SEC and asked for a waiver of capital reserve requirements so they could leverage the shit out of themselves. And they got it.

This is why I laugh hysterically whenever I hear someone say "Da gubmint made da banks make all dose loanz!"

 

[g5000]

Show me anyone starving in this country.
Our problem is obesity, not starvation.

Spend a few months with me, I'll show you plenty of people in poverty.

 

[EdwardBaiamonte]

Wall Street's CDOs were far more prevalent and far more toxic.

dear, thats perfect hindsight. At the time history indicated that liberal govt would keep stimulating the housing market with 132 separate programs and inflating prices so there appeared to be no risk. Do you think its coincidence that soviet markets like housing and health care go crazy while 99% of markets work perfectly??

 

[EdwardBaiamonte]

Show me anyone starving in this country.
Our problem is obesity, not starvation.

Spend a few months with me, I'll show you plenty of people in poverty.

America's poor are more likely to be overweight than underweight.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

AIG made their money by collecting premiums for collateralized debt swaps (CDS). A CDS is a lot like insurance, except for one very critical difference. They do not require an insurable interest.

What is an insurable interest?

What if you could buy a life insurance policy against your neighbor's life? What do you think would happen to the murder rate? You could buy an insurance policy against your bitch ex-wife and then have her killed and collect on the policy. Win/win.

What if you could buy fire insurance for any house on the planet? What do you think would happen to the arson rate? You pay a hundred bucks for insurance on some guy's house who you don't even know, then collect $200,000 when his house burns down.

What if ten people could insure one $200,000 house? If it burns down, the insurance company isn't out 200 grand. They are out $2 million.

That is why you have to have an insurable interest to buy insurance. You have to stand to lose something if something happens to what it is you are insuring. You have to suffer a personal loss.

Not so with CDS. You can bet against someone else's loan.

So what do you think happened to the loan default rate?

TA-DAAAAAA!

If you get to build a house, then sell it, then buy fire insurance against it, what will happen to the quality of houses being built?

TA-DAAAAA!

That's what happened to the quality of loans being made.


Okay, let's back up a little bit now.

"AIG made their money by collecting premiums."

Think about what money coming in from premiums is.

Got it yet?

That's right! IT IS A REVENUE STREAM!

And what can we do with a revenue stream? We can bundle it into a CDO!


And that is what a synthetic CDO is. It is the revenue stream built out of insurance premiums.

So if you buy a tranche in a synthetic CDO, your income is coming from insurance premiums (CDS payments). And if you accept an insurance premium, then you are on the hook for what is being insured.

D'oh!

And that is how Wall Street was able to keep the music playing after AIG got out of the CDS business in 2005. They just tricked their investors into selling insurance against the firetraps they were building in the home mortgage world.


Don't believe me?

Google "ABACUS 2007-ac1".

Not so with CDS. You can bet against someone else's loan.

So what do you think happened to the loan default rate?
Unlike your examples of arson and murder, you can't force all the (or even some of the) borrowers in your CDS to default.

And that is what a synthetic CDO is. It is the revenue stream built out of insurance premiums.

It's a synthetic bond. The buyer hasn't sold any insurance to anyone.
The buyer isn't paying out anything in the case of some insurable event occurring.

And if you accept an insurance premium, then you are on the hook for what is being insured.

One third of the mortgages in my synthetic CDO go into default, where do I mail the check to pay off the "insurance" you insist I've sold?

Don't believe me?

No.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

The thing about the CDO chain is that the person at the beginning of the pipeline is the one making the loan. If he can sell that loan before the ink is dry, and he doesn't have to keep a piece of that loan on his books, then what has happened to the incentive to do due dilegence on the borrower?

It has vanished. In fact, the broker has an incentive to make as many loans as possible now. More loans means more profits he makes for selling them into the pipeline. He has ZERO risk. All the risk goes into the pipeline.

Then the broker-dealer (Goldman Sachs, et al.) bundle those loans into CDOs and sell all those cups to the investors. They also have no risk. They are getting fees for building and managing the CDOs. All the risk is on the buyers of all those cups. They have the risk of the artificial river drying up on them before they get to dip their cup in the revenue stream.

The whole game of a CDO is to dip your cup into the stream and get more money out than you paid for your cup before the river dries up.

It is much worse for the buyer of a synthetic CDO. They are risking having to shell out more than they invested in the cup!

Remember that $200,000 house that had ten insurance policies against it? When it burns down (the loan defaults), someone has to pay $2 million to the people who bought those policies.

The synthetic CDO investor paid fifty bucks for their cup, got eight dollars (if they were lucky) as their share of the premiums revenue stream, but now they have to cough up $2 million.

It is much worse for the buyer of a synthetic CDO. They are risking having to shell out more than they invested in the cup!

Wrong. If I pay $200K for a tranche of a synthetic CDO, that's all I can lose.

The synthetic CDO investor paid fifty bucks for their cup, got eight dollars (if they were lucky) as their share of the premiums revenue stream, but now they have to cough up $2 million.

Wrong. If an investor sold a CDS on a $2 million CDO, they may have only collected $8 in premiums, but they'll be liable for $2 million, minus recovery of collateral.

 

[TooTall]

Hey, pssst...democrats were in charge when Fannie Mae collapsed bringing the entire world economy down with it. Democrat Barney Frank was the chair(person) of the powerful "house banking committee" which had oversight responsibility for Fannie Mae and Frank told Americans that Fannie was solvent when it was in desperate trouble. The question is whether democrats nudged Fannie over the edge as the biggest October surprise in history or it was typical democrat negligence.

I don't know why you are ranting about irrelevant bullshit. I don't care what dems did or didn't do years ago. That's not the point at all.

Let me simplify this: if the next Great Recession hits, how would republicans respond? How would they help the thousands that would be losing their jobs in the economic free fall?

The same thing the Democrats did. Blame it in Obama.

 

[TooTall]

When the next Great Recession hits, how will republicans respond?

They'll rush to Fox News and blame Obama.

That would make them Democrats.

 

[TooTall]

Yup, Dems took over in 2006 & it's been all downhill since.

If republicans were in control, how would they assist the thousands, potentially millions of people who lost their jobs against their will? What policies would they put in place?

This is a simple question gramps. Answer it.

I'd hire them to clean up the trash in our National Forests.

There'd be no unemployment, thus no need for welfare.

Your solution is to hire millions of people to pick up trash?

Your solution is to pay millions to sit on their asses and create more trash?

FDR had no problem sending the unemployed into the Forest Service lands to live in camps and work for a check.

Why should today be different?

Um no my solution is to give them temporary relief until they can find a new job. You do realize of course one of the conditions of UI is sending in documented proof that you are actively looking for a job right?

And when UI runs out, you hire one of the hundreds of lawyers that make a damned good living dummying up a reason for you to get on SSDI.

 

[TooTall]

billy boy one question, how will the democrats respond in another recession? I hope it's better than they did during the great depression and the last recession, they're effort was like they wanted to destroy America.

Their effort saves America. That jobs free fall, 500,000 a month, was stopped in its tracks by the stimulus package. These are facts.

The only problem is that the stimulus wasn't big enough.

Is that the one that went to pay for all of those 'shovel ready' jobs?

 

[Billy000]

billy boy one question, how will the democrats respond in another recession? I hope it's better than they did during the great depression and the last recession, they're effort was like they wanted to destroy America.

Their effort saves America. That jobs free fall, 500,000 a month, was stopped in its tracks by the stimulus package. These are facts.

The only problem is that the stimulus wasn't big enough.

Is that the one that went to pay for all of those 'shovel ready' jobs?

It paid for 3 million private jobs due to an increase in economic demand.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

billy boy one question, how will the democrats respond in another recession? I hope it's better than they did during the great depression and the last recession, they're effort was like they wanted to destroy America.

Their effort saves America. That jobs free fall, 500,000 a month, was stopped in its tracks by the stimulus package. These are facts.

The only problem is that the stimulus wasn't big enough.

Is that the one that went to pay for all of those 'shovel ready' jobs?

It paid for 3 million private jobs due to an increase in economic demand.

It paid for 3 million private jobs due to an increase in economic demand.

$280,000 for each job you feel was created, and you think that was a good deal? LOL!

 

[Billy000]

billy boy one question, how will the democrats respond in another recession? I hope it's better than they did during the great depression and the last recession, they're effort was like they wanted to destroy America.

Their effort saves America. That jobs free fall, 500,000 a month, was stopped in its tracks by the stimulus package. These are facts.

The only problem is that the stimulus wasn't big enough.

Is that the one that went to pay for all of those 'shovel ready' jobs?

It paid for 3 million private jobs due to an increase in economic demand.

It paid for 3 million private jobs due to an increase in economic demand.

$280,000 for each job you feel was created, and you think that was a good deal? LOL!

Most of the money was given to unemployed people. They spent that money on business that grew the economy. $288 billion was through tax cuts. Tax cuts aren't free you know that right?

 

[Truman123]

When the next Great Recession hits, how will republicans respond?

They'll rush to Fox News and blame Obama.

I'd say we Nationalize all of the Indian Casinos and put the money they make right into the general fund.

Hell, why not just kill them and steal the rest of their lands?

No we'll just wean you off of the Gov tit and make you folks work for a living.

So get rid of the military?

 

[Antares]

When the next Great Recession hits, how will republicans respond?

They'll rush to Fox News and blame Obama.

I'd say we Nationalize all of the Indian Casinos and put the money they make right into the general fund.

Hell, why not just kill them and steal the rest of their lands?

No we'll just wean you off of the Gov tit and make you folks work for a living.

So get rid of the military?

Nope, just subsidies for the Redman because we had the gall to conquer them.

WITH that army by the way.

 

[Contumacious]

billy boy one question, how will the democrats respond in another recession? I hope it's better than they did during the great depression and the last recession, they're effort was like they wanted to destroy America.

Their effort saves America. That jobs free fall, 500,000 a month, was stopped in its tracks by the stimulus package. These are facts.

The only problem is that the stimulus wasn't big enough.

Is that the one that went to pay for all of those 'shovel ready' jobs?

It paid for 3 million private jobs due to an increase in economic demand.

It paid for 3 million private jobs due to an increase in economic demand.

$280,000 for each job you feel was created, and you think that was a good deal? LOL!

Most of the money was given to unemployed people. They spent that money on business that grew the economy. $288 billion was through tax cuts. Tax cuts aren't free you know that right?

I see, It is bad to let the people keep THEIR own money?


.

 

[Billy000]

Their effort saves America. That jobs free fall, 500,000 a month, was stopped in its tracks by the stimulus package. These are facts.

The only problem is that the stimulus wasn't big enough.

Is that the one that went to pay for all of those 'shovel ready' jobs?

It paid for 3 million private jobs due to an increase in economic demand.

It paid for 3 million private jobs due to an increase in economic demand.

$280,000 for each job you feel was created, and you think that was a good deal? LOL!

Most of the money was given to unemployed people. They spent that money on business that grew the economy. $288 billion was through tax cuts. Tax cuts aren't free you know that right?

I see, It is bad to let the people keep THEIR own money?


.

A day may come when you lose your job against your will. An economic crisis that leaves you without a job for months or even longer. Wouldn't you appreciate the help? Paying taxes serves a lot of purposes. Paying taxes is part of being a citizen. You commit to the system and you get services in return.

 

[Avorysuds]

Is that the one that went to pay for all of those 'shovel ready' jobs?

It paid for 3 million private jobs due to an increase in economic demand.

It paid for 3 million private jobs due to an increase in economic demand.

$280,000 for each job you feel was created, and you think that was a good deal? LOL!

Most of the money was given to unemployed people. They spent that money on business that grew the economy. $288 billion was through tax cuts. Tax cuts aren't free you know that right?

I see, It is bad to let the people keep THEIR own money?


.

A day may come when you lose your job against your will. An economic crisis that leaves you without a job for months or even longer. Wouldn't you appreciate the help? Paying taxes serves a lot of purposes. Paying taxes is part of being a citizen. You commit to the system and you get services in return.

I'll take Harding's recovery from a depression over the 10+ years wasted under FDR or 6 years now wasted under Obama. No, I don't want your welfare, it has impoverished millions of people.

The more programs we get that you support the worse off the nation has become... Ever stepped back and asked why that might be? None of your bullshit is getting repealed, Republican only add to these welfare programs.... You're at a point now where you want min wage to be like 15-25$ an hour. Fact is it won't happen because anyone with a slight understanding of economics since the beginning of the first economic structure knows you will create a depression you will not be able to get out of near instantly.