What is happening in Kazakhstan?

[Donald H]

You are such a clown.

You said: "Did I ever tell you the one about the two old ladies in Cuba who begged to not have their passports stamped? I'll save it for another time." as if this was some big secret or that most people didn't know about "the stamp". Not getting your passport stamped while in Cuba has been widely known for over 20 years.





.

The scene I witnessed hasn't been known for 20 years. I watched the Cuban customs officer stamping the two passports. What can I say about it? Apparently the decision to stamp or not stamp is in the hands of the customs officers. Although it makes sense that Cuba invites all tourists. The point being, arrogance didn't pay off in this instance.

 

[Decus]

The scene I witnessed hasn't been known for 20 years. I watched the Cuban customs officer stamping the two passports. What can I say about it? Apparently the decision to stamp or not stamp is in the hands of the customs officers. Although it makes sense that Cuba invites all tourists. The point being, arrogance didn't pay off in this instance.

You really don't have a point, except to show how truly ignorant you are.

.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

Americans should be allowed legally and freely to visit Cuba, invest there under Cuban law, trade and socialize — like Canadians and Europeans. That would have many positive economic effects for Cubans and help them to reform their system of government.

 

[Donald H]

Americans should be allowed legally and freely to visit Cuba, invest there under Cuban law, trade and socialize — like Canadians and Europeans. That would have many positive economic effects for Cubans and help them to reform their system of government.

So true Tom! Obama saw the logic in normalizing relations with Cuba at the appropriate time for America's interests. That can still happen but the competition with China's interests in Cuba will minimize the benefits for America.

Obama's initiative could have even helped to disqualify China from rushing in to fill the gap.
China will move slowly on it's agenda of owning Cuba's military alliance but quickly on gaining the hearts and minds of the Cuban people and the loyalty of Cuba's government.

What a sad mistake Trump made!

Now, I see it as China's answer to the divided Korea issue.

 

[Donald H]

You really don't have a point, except to show how truly ignorant you are.

.

Well, maybe we can leave it at that at least until we can find something on which we can disagree? Why not see if you can invent something that we can both care about? I'm pretty adamant on the Ukraine situation if you want to jump over to one of those threads.
On Kazakhstan, I don't know what point you want to make?

 

[Unkotare]

A very, very long time ago I knew a very, very beautiful girl from Kazakhstan.

 

[xyz]

One very interesting thing about this is that the Chinese praised the crackdown.

Why is this interesting? Because they broke their golden rule of not commenting on the politics of different counties. Of course to them that does not include what they consider to be China: Hong Kong, Taiwan, South China Sea islands, part of India that they invaded and so on. But Kazakhstan?

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

It is not entirely true that China always acts on this “Golden Rule” never to comment on other country’s internal affairs. It is true that it generally says little, does not interfere, never disrupts elections, never invades distant countries, etc. China is very conservative in these respects, emphasizing “national sovereignty.” It is also very hostile to “color revolutions,” which imo the Kazakh riots hardly amounted to. China did not even support the USSR takeover of Crimea.

But the U.S. is now almost forcing the development of a strategic alliance between authoritarian powers China and Russia. The Chinese like that the Kazakhstan Russian alliance intervention was done at the specific request of the Kazakh authorities, was completely “legal,” and was both short-lived and “successful” from almost any perspective. Of course the future of Kazakhstan, as well as the success of the Chinese “Belt and Road” initiative in Asia, is still very much undecided.

 

[xyz]

China did not even support the USSR takeover of Crimea.

It was the Chinese Republic then, they didn't have Communism until the 1950s.

Unless you meant Russia recently.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

Yes, of course you are right. My mistake. Russia, not the USSR.

 

[xyz]

The Chinese would only support Russia if it benefits themselves in some way. They wouldn't be against taking some Russian territory if the opportunity arose.

 

[surada]

Little is known yet about the real forces that were behind the recent violence. The situation seems to have stabilized for now, and there are reports that the several thousand Russian and CSTO forces will soon be withdrawn. Let us hope so. If even only a few thousand Russian troops remain too long, or are too obvious in everyday life, serious problems down the road may emerge in relations between Kazakhs and the large Russian minority population.

That Russian population is today around 19% of the total, less than half what it was just before the USSR collapsed. We are talking of some 3.5 million Russians out of about 19 million total. Even after 30 years of independence, and despite resentment from some Kazakhs, the Russian language still plays a crucial role in higher education and society as a whole. There are other minorities as well, at least partly because this area was where many suspect populations and individuals were sent in Stalinist times.

The arrest of the old security director on high treason charges, and other reports too, strongly indicate that a power struggle at the top opened the door to different forces from below. The Russian role, the American role, the role of criminal and tribal elements, the degree of repressed Kazakh / Russian conflict, the role if any of religion, these are all still unclear.

Kazakhstan is the size of West Europe, has a small population density and tremendous oil & gas resources. Hence there are immense temptations for elite corruption, as in Saudi Arabia, Libya and similar oil-producing countries.

We need to understand that the tiny civic freedom groups there, mostly underground, were NOT leading the struggle, and were evidently as surprised as others by its sudden outbreak and ferociousness.

The standard Western psychological profile of “imperial” Russians — applied to the recent Kazakhstan events — is misleading and obscures much. Kazakhs were a nomadic people who were first partly Russified and then transformed by their Soviet experience — not entirely for the worse. The “new” Kazakhstan that arose after independence eventually brought more wealth and much more inequality than existed under the final decades of the USSR. There are real conflicting geopolitical interests here, tremendous economic and social differences, as well as deep corruption. Though there is much hatred for rich and corrupt ruling groups in society, it is still far from clear that the recent violence inaugurated the beginning of any future “revolution against authoritarianism.”

Russia, not wanting any more “color revolutions” on its periphery, naturally made itself available to prop up the recently established Kazakh governing administration, suddenly faced with this unexpected and violent uprising. This was no Soviet “invasion” or “occupation” however. There are not enough Russians left for the political situation to resemble China’s Xinjiang. The Kazakhs — like the Uighurs a Turkic-speaking people — are mostly Muslims, but have never been religious fanatics. Still, their nationalist pride is growing.

Splits among Kazakh’s own kleptocratic factions in the country’s domestic ruling class, and in its security forces, may have precipitated the violence. But what lies deeper is unclear. Was there any role of “foreign influencers” in bribing certain factions to take action? Was everything spontaneous? We may never know. We do not even know if there are any “domestic oligarchs” or political factions genuinely interested in bringing democracy to the country.

It will be interesting to see if the great Western oil and commercial interests, like Chevron, that have been allowed in recent decades to grow dramatically and now have huge sums invested there, will continue to be welcome. We shouldn’t assume that the West really has the best interests of the people of Kazakhstan in mind, anymore than our corporations and military have had the real interests of the people of the Middle East in mind. The best future for the people of landlocked Kazakhstan will almost certainly require careful balancing of trade and relations with Russia, China and the West.

You have never been to Saudi Arabia or Libya. Gaddafi was like Trump in too many ways. Saudi Arabia has excellent leadership since Abdul Aziz ibn Saud with the exception of king Saud.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

Not sure what your point is here. Qaddafi like Trump? Well, OK. Strange and surreal, but I see where you’re going.

Of course NATO went on the offensive against a country that didn’t threaten if and overthrew Qaddafi … and the horror that followed is clear.

On Saudi Arabia, it may be true that the reigning Princes have all been educated at Harvard and the best business schools in the West, but the Saudi state excels in torture and cutting up dissident bodies — remember Jamal Khashoggi! Even the Saudi ruling princes are now terrified of MbS. It seems to me that oil money has totally corrupted that country, and it is its minorities, imported workers, Yemenis, who suffer as a result. Certainly no more a democracy than Kazakhstan.

But you are right, I’ve never been there. Or to Israel or the Pentagon either.