Weather Patterns - A Discussion

[Matted Joybeard]

 

[Billy_Bob]

That's where Billy denies that conservation of energy holds, and thus reveals himself as a laughable crank.

According to Billy's kook physics, sunlight can't warm a rock, being that sunlight can barely penetrate into a rock. Since sunlight clearly does warm a rock, that demonstrates how Billy is an imbecile.

LOL.... You have to receive the energy before you can conserve it... You people are running in circles...

 

[ReinyDays]

Moving on from the troll....

Back to topic...

Why can we not model weather accurately?

GCM's (Global Climate Model) are complex computations of multiple pressure gradients. These models are actually models within a larger model. Each model is 100kl x 100kl x 10kl deep. These are called grid squares and the distances change with latitude.

View attachment 660304

source

These grid squares are stacked as we enter different sections of the atmosphere.

The problem is thunderstorms and other micro circulations, which occur in 1-3 kl regions. You can have changes within each grid square, that change the calculations of the whole, which you cannot generate. We simply do not have the temporal or spatial resolution to model even one square correctly.

At best, you might get 3-5 days close but long term, the model will fail with 100% certainty. Most meteorologists will not trust any model beyond 24 hours. They are simply that inaccurate.

Can you narrow down your source for this a little ... the link takes me to an analysis of TV reception in Iran during bad weather ... you should be able to do better ...

At best, you might get 3-5 days close but long term, the model will fail with 100% certainty. Most meteorologists will not trust any model beyond 24 hours. They are simply that inaccurate.

I agree except you over state your case I think ... just using climatology will give correct results ... some times, and in some places, this method is fairly accurate ... twenty years ago this is how the NWS determined rain chances, maybe still to this day ... it's not that these computer models are accurate past 72 hours, but there's only so many forecasts to be stated ... just pick one at random and you'll get some positive hits ...

Remember ... if you're in a 5 mph wind field ... and you want to know what the weather will be in 12 hours ... simply call 60 miles upstream and ask what weather they're having right now ... there's your 12 hour forecast with 99% accuracy ... call 120 miles upstream for your 24 hour forecast with 98% accuracy ... after this accuracy crashes and we'll have to consider the area's storms and polar jets and sunspots and all that other funny stuff we see on the TV's weather report ...

 

[Matted Joybeard]

 

[Matted Joybeard]

 

[mamooth]

LOL.... You have to receive the energy before you can conserve it... You people are running in circles...

And again, Billy tells us sunlight can't warm a rock.

Longwave IR penetrates into the ocean. Hence, it is absorbed by the ocean. What about this confoozes you so much?

 

[Matted Joybeard]

And again, Billy tells us sunlight can't warm a rock.

Longwave IR penetrates into the ocean. Hence, it is absorbed by the ocean. What about this confoozes you so much?

The physics.

 

[ding]

The physics.

Does light produce heat or is it the absorption of light that produces heat? Light is energy. Heat is energy. When a physical body absorbs light, it converts the energy of the absorbed photons into kinetic energy (vibrations) of its own atoms. We call that mechanical energy "heat".

Does this sound right to you?

 

[Billy_Bob]

Does light produce heat or is it the absorption of light that produces heat? Light is energy. Heat is energy. When a physical body absorbs light, it converts the energy of the absorbed photons into kinetic energy (vibrations) of its own atoms. We call that mechanical energy "heat".

Does this sound right to you?

They don't get basic physics.. That's the problem, they simply cannot grasp the root of problem. The region of energy (downwelling solar radiation) that warms our oceans to depth is declining. That energy loss is what is driving the lack of ENSO recharge and why our oceans are cooling.

 

[Billy_Bob]

And it is only July 20th. The size of the polar jet is that of wintertime and the speed has increased. The large High pressure above the plains is breaking up as the polar jet descends. The equatorial jet is being pushed down. A month and a half early...

The width of the polar jet is massive, and the lows are gaining strength already.

 

[ding]

And it is only July 20th. The size of the polar jet is that of wintertime and the speed has increased. The large High pressure above the plains is breaking up as the polar jet descends. The equatorial jet is being pushed down. A month and a half early...

View attachment 672376

The width of the polar jet is massive, and the lows are gaining strength already.

It's only a matter of time before a prolonged cooling trend proves everything they believe to be false.

 

[Matted Joybeard]

Getting pretty fucking cold out there.

 

[ding]

That's what happens in an interglacial cycle.

 

[Billy_Bob]

We had almost three weeks where the nighttime temperatures were at the 30-year average. This week we are back to 12-15 deg below average and the air flow at 25,000 feet has returned to late October temps. The polar jet has taken back over as the driver of temperature in the mid latitudes.

The upper-level winds have already shifted southward. Things are beginning to change rapidly in the Northern Hemisphere. I hope JC and Skooks are ready...

 

[Billy_Bob]

It has begun... The first of many Polar Jet intrusions and polar lows is set to enter they US on Thursday into Friday. We will go from near record heat to below average in the next 72 hours in the western US.

Thunderstorms likely in Casper Friday; 'significant snow' possible in Bighorn Mountains

CASPER, Wyo. — The Casper area could see rain on Thursday with thunderstorms then likely on Friday, according to the National Weather Service in Riverton.

oilcity.news

This is the response of a very powerful polar jet that is now going to again affect the US very quickly. Sadly, California and other states will not see much relief for another month. The northern Rockies will be getting its first major Snow about 1 and 1/2 months early.

 

[ReinyDays]

It has begun... The first of many Polar Jet intrusions and polar lows is set to enter they US on Thursday into Friday. We will go from near record heat to below average in the next 72 hours in the western US.

Thunderstorms likely in Casper Friday; 'significant snow' possible in Bighorn Mountains

CASPER, Wyo. — The Casper area could see rain on Thursday with thunderstorms then likely on Friday, according to the National Weather Service in Riverton.

oilcity.news

This is the response of a very powerful polar jet that is now going to again affect the US very quickly. Sadly, California and other states will not see much relief for another month. The northern Rockies will be getting its first major Snow about 1 and 1/2 months early.

I've been watching this ... you sure did get lucky with your spring predictions ... [giggle] ...

North Atlantic hurricane season is running below average ... the polar jet could be keeping things calmer or more laminar in the tropics ... I've seen stranger things in the atmosphere ...

Maybe the northern Rockies will finally get a tropical cyclone to spin out there ...

 

[abu afak]

And it is only July 20th. The size of the Polar jet is that of Wintertime and the speed has increased. The large High pressure above the plains is breaking up as the Polar jet Descends.
The Equatorial jet is being pushed Down. A Month and a Half Early...

View attachment 672376

The width of the polar jet is massive, and the lows are gaining strength already.

Yup you nailed it on July 20th!

Probably the Hottest Summer Ever in the West/Midwest.
Records Highs most Everywhere many times since.... and Still Hot as Hell.

What a ******* disastrous call.
They can add you to the top of the list of those terrible predictions.. and yours wasn't even good Short term!

`

 

[ReinyDays]

Yup you nailed it on July 20th!

Probably the Hottest Summer Ever in the West/Midwest.
Records Highs most Everywhere many times since.... and Still Hot as Hell.

What a ******* disastrous call.
They can add you to the top of the list of those terrible predictions.. and yours wasn't even good Short term!

`

Billy_Bob speaks of trough-to-trough ... you speak of peak-to-peak ... it's a sine wave, you're both saying the same thing ... the techno-geek-freaktoid term is "a positive Arctic oscillation index value" ... and Billy_Bob has been correct all summer long that this value has remained high ...

It's a meteorology thing ... we're using dt instead of ∆t ...

 

[abu afak]

Billy_Bob speaks of trough-to-trough ... you speak of peak-to-peak ... it's a sine wave, you're both saying the same thing ... the techno-geek-freaktoid term is "a positive Arctic oscillation index value" ... and Billy_Bob has been correct all summer long that this value has remained high ...

It's a meteorology thing ... we're using dt instead of ∆t ...

Nope
He was talking what was coming for the summer on July 20. (Polar stuff "1.5 mos early") (getting his cords of wood piled up)
I was/am talking the whole summer/pizza oven.
thx

`

 

[ReinyDays]

Nope
He was talking what was coming for the summer on July 20. (Polar stuff "1.5 mos early") (getting his cords of wood piled up)
I was/am talking the whole summer/pizza oven.
thx

`

It's been strictly synopic here in The West ... where are you where it's been excessively hot all summer long? ... we've had our hot spells and we've had some downright pleasant weather ... alternately ... like a sine wave ...