Weather Patterns - A Discussion

[abu afak]

There is great misunderstanding about the difference between 'weather' and 'climate'. One is short term weather flows, and one is long term weather patterns.
I created this thread to help sort out and discuss short term patterns. (Less than 250 years in length). Climate defined is: the culmination of repetitive weather patterns over long periods of time. Weather defined is; cyclical patterns and flows over short periods of time.

Everything we see today is in to short of a time span to be called climate. The use of the term "Climate Change" is deceptive and devoid of science.

Here I want to discuss the flow changes we see today, our current weather cycles. In my next post I will lay out why our wide swings in the polar jet are causing areas of high temp and then followed by areas of low temperature.

Really!
And where did you get your self-serving numbers? "250 years" etc?
And ergo you Disingenuously ("created this thread") to try and preclude AGW and the Industrial Revolution's large effects on the atmosphere!/climate!
LOL

NASA, NationalGeographic, and Dictionary, com have 'Climate' at 30 years or more:


NASA

NASA

NASA.gov brings you the latest news, images and videos from America's space agency, pioneering the future in space exploration, scientific discovery and aeronautics research.

www.nasa.gov

NatGeo

Weather or Climate ... What's the Difference?

While weather refers to short-term changes in the atmosphere, climate refers to atmospheric changes over longer periods of time, usually 30 years or more.

education.nationalgeographic.org

and
Dictionary,com

What’s The Difference Between Weather vs. Climate?

When it comes to wind, rain, and temperature, are you talking about weather or climate? Learn the difference between the two so you can handle any storm.

www.dictionary.com

`

 

[ReinyDays]

Really!
And where did you get your self-serving numbers? "250 years" etc?
And ergo you Disingenuously ("created this thread") to try and preclude AGW and the Industrial Revolution's large effects on the atmosphere!/climate!
LOL

NASA, NationalGeographic, and Dictionary, com have 'Climate' at 30 years or more:


NASA

NASA

NASA.gov brings you the latest news, images and videos from America's space agency, pioneering the future in space exploration, scientific discovery and aeronautics research.

www.nasa.gov

NatGeo

Weather or Climate ... What's the Difference?

While weather refers to short-term changes in the atmosphere, climate refers to atmospheric changes over longer periods of time, usually 30 years or more.

education.nationalgeographic.org

and
Dictionary,com

What’s The Difference Between Weather vs. Climate?

When it comes to wind, rain, and temperature, are you talking about weather or climate? Learn the difference between the two so you can handle any storm.

www.dictionary.com

`

What does any of that have to do with weather? ...

 

[abu afak]

It's been strictly synopic here in The West ... where are you where it's been excessively hot all summer long? ... we've had our hot spells and we've had some downright pleasant weather ... alternately ... like a sine wave ...

I live in Florida now and it's been slightly warmer than normal, and a bit dryer.
Thankfully/Shockingly No Hurricanes or serious Tropical Storms anyhere within 500-1000 miles of the East Coast.
Everything has turned North well east of Bermuda, most not even forming off Africa. Very strange shearing winds and Saharan dust keeping it dryer than usual.
This is a La Nina year usually more storm-active but it's dead... so far.
`

 

[abu afak]

What does any of that have to do with weather? ...

You might want to read the first sentence/two of the OP I quoted and busted.
Look at the OP or my bolded quote of it.
The TIME difference between weather and climate IS the topic here.
Got it?
I quoted it and then refuted it.
That's one of the things I do well against these warped/Warming Denier posts.
`

 

[ReinyDays]

You might want to read the first sentence/two of the OP I quoted and busted.
Look at the OP or my bolded quote of it.
The TIME difference between weather and climate IS the topic here.
Got it?
I quoted it and then refuted it.
That's one of the things I do well against these warped/Warming Denier posts.
`

Do you have a number in mind? ... because using ∆t = 250 years is completely reasonable ... this lets us use 50 to 60 El Nino cycles to average out ... 22 solar cycles ... but only four Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillations ... all of these oscillations are notoriously erratic and unpredictable ... and we haven't talked about oscillations that haven't been discovered yet ...

The downside is we don't have the thousands of years of empirical data to make any decent conclusions about treads in our 250-year time interval ... we only have 140 years ... at best we can use ∆t = 70 years just to get two data points for comparison ... and any extrapolation we make with only two data points is going to be questionable in the general sense ... and especially true for the meteorological parameters, whose averages always carry a large standard deviation ... every last one of them ...

So go ahead and state what time interval you want to use ... and give us your data points using this time interval ... I'm suggesting 70 years and this gives us a 13ºC average between 1881-1950, a 14ºC average between 1951-2020, and thus a 15ºC average between 2021-2090 ... this is the definition of globe warming, it's getting slightly warmer over time ... it may even get to 16ºC once we've burned every last drop of cruel oil in a few hundred years ...

I'm denying any of this changes climate ... Indiana will still get adequate rainfall to grow corn all summer and California will still be burning ... hurricanes and thunderstorms will come and go just like before ... the weather we expect will be exactly the same as 500 years ago as it will be in 500 years ...

Memorize this article ... this is the PRIMARY cause of both weather patterns and the climatic averages we can calculate from these weather patterns ... it's all about temperature differences ...

Atmospheric circulation - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[abu afak]

Do you have a number in mind? ... because using ∆t = 250 years is completely reasonable ... this lets us use 50 to 60 El Nino cycles to average out ... 22 solar cycles ... but only four Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillations ... all of these oscillations are notoriously erratic and unpredictable ... and we haven't talked about oscillations that haven't been discovered yet ...

The downside is we don't have the thousands of years of empirical data to make any decent conclusions about treads in our 250-year time interval ... we only have 140 years ... at best we can use ∆t = 70 years just to get two data points for comparison ... and any extrapolation we make with only two data points is going to be questionable in the general sense ... and especially true for the meteorological parameters, whose averages always carry a large standard deviation ... every last one of them ...

So go ahead and state what time interval you want to use ... and give us your data points using this time interval ... I'm suggesting 70 years and this gives us a 13ºC average between 1881-1950, a 14ºC average between 1951-2020, and thus a 15ºC average between 2021-2090 ... this is the definition of globe warming, it's getting slightly warmer over time ... it may even get to 16ºC once we've burned every last drop of cruel oil in a few hundred years ...

I'm denying any of this changes climate ... Indiana will still get adequate rainfall to grow corn all summer and California will still be burning ... hurricanes and thunderstorms will come and go just like before ... the weather we expect will be exactly the same as 500 years ago as it will be in 500 years ...

Memorize this article ... this is the PRIMARY cause of both weather patterns and the climatic averages we can calculate from these weather patterns ... it's all about temperature differences ...

Atmospheric circulation - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

"Do I have a number in mind?"

Do YOU READ?
I gave a number with 3 sources.

You are really too Obtuse to debate.
You didn't even get why I posted what I did (and thought it was off topic) when in fact it was a direct answer to the OP and his ATTEMPT to obliterate man-made 'climate' change/AGW by making the period FOR 'climate' (250 years) which is longer than the Industrial Revolution's 150 years during which man caused climate change.

Got it yet?
So sorry but you are too dim to discuss anything.
`

 

[ReinyDays]

"Do I have a number in mind?"

Do YOU READ?
I gave a number with 3 sources.

You are really too Obtuse to debate.
You didn't even get why I posted what I did (and thought it was off topic) when in fact it was a direct answer to the OP and his ATTEMPT to obliterate man-made 'climate' change/AGW by making the period FOR 'climate' (250 years) which is longer than the Industrial Revolution's 150 years during which man caused climate change.

Got it yet?
So sorry but you are too dim to discuss anything.
`

No ... please state the time interval you would like to discuss ... there's nothing obtuse about linear algebra ... if your math is wrong, then you are wrong ... that's physics for ya ...

 

[flan327]

All you can do is prepare. Take precautions. When it starts to cool winterize the home. I have wood burning stoves and about 3-4 cords of wood. We cannot control the weather. We must adapt.

Carbon monoxide EMISSIONS

 

[ReinyDays]

Summer snow? US town gets winter preview weeks before fall begins

School is back in session, a new season of the NFL has just kicked off and pumpkin spice lattes are being served up across the country, all signs that fall is almost here. But on Friday morning, some corners of the contiguous United States received their first taste of winter. Snow fell across...

www.yahoo.com

Ha ha ha ...

 

[ding]

You might want to read the first sentence/two of the OP I quoted and busted.
Look at the OP or my bolded quote of it.
The TIME difference between weather and climate IS the topic here.
Got it?
I quoted it and then refuted it.
That's one of the things I do well against these warped/Warming Denier posts.
`

Didn't you ever learn how to write a paragraph?

 

[Billy_Bob]

Carbon monoxide EMISSIONS

In winter it is soaked up by ice falling out of the sky and sequestered in the soil where plants use it for food in spring.... I love renewables....

 

[Cardinal Carminative]

Summer snow? US town gets winter preview weeks before fall begins

School is back in session, a new season of the NFL has just kicked off and pumpkin spice lattes are being served up across the country, all signs that fall is almost here. But on Friday morning, some corners of the contiguous United States received their first taste of winter. Snow fell across...

www.yahoo.com

Ha ha ha ...

SURPRISE! Reiny doesn't understand statistics, noise or even the topic!

YAY!

 

[Billy_Bob]

A new paper out shows the Paradoxical Presentation and why it happens.

Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis: New support for the effect of solar activity on lower atmospheric circulation

by Javier Vinós A recent paper by Svetlana Veretenenko provides important support for the effect of solar activity on the lower atmospheric circulation through its effect on the polar vortex. Veret…

judithcurry.com

Interestingly the comment follows and the usual science deniers tout platitudes... The warming in the polar regions is Normal and Natural for our climatic cycle and not caused by man.

 

[Delldude]

A new paper out shows the Paradoxical Presentation and why it happens.

Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis: New support for the effect of solar activity on lower atmospheric circulation

by Javier Vinós A recent paper by Svetlana Veretenenko provides important support for the effect of solar activity on the lower atmospheric circulation through its effect on the polar vortex. Veret…

judithcurry.com

Interestingly the comment follows and the usual science deniers tout platitudes... The warming in the polar regions is Normal and Natural for our climatic cycle and not caused by man.

Milankovich Theory works for me.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Milankovich Theory works for me.

I think it is more of a combination of events that drive our climate. Milakovich theory is only one part of it and the others either prolong the warmth or shorten it.

 

[Delldude]

I think it is more of a combination of events that drive our climate. Milakovich theory in only one part of it and the others either prolong the warmth or shorten it.

Solar is a large contributor, but not many want to hear that.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Solar is a large contributor, but not many want to hear that.

Truth... That is why a little old volcano can cause so much havoc with a little ash into the stratosphere.

 

[Crick]

Truth... That is why a little old volcano can cause so much havoc with a little ash into the stratosphere.

And how long do you think that ash will remain in the atmosphere?

 

[ReinyDays]

A new paper out shows the Paradoxical Presentation and why it happens.

Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis: New support for the effect of solar activity on lower atmospheric circulation

by Javier Vinós A recent paper by Svetlana Veretenenko provides important support for the effect of solar activity on the lower atmospheric circulation through its effect on the polar vortex. Veret…

judithcurry.com

Interestingly the comment follows and the usual science deniers tout platitudes... The warming in the polar regions is Normal and Natural for our climatic cycle and not caused by man.

... based on evidence that climate change is primarily the result of changes in poleward energy transport ...

This is taught the first week of Meteorology 201 class ... everything weather, climate and ocean starts with this motion ... simple F = ma ... so much of the misinformation in the mainstream media can be dismissed based on this fact ...

This deserves to be memorized ... everything weather, climate and ocean starts with this motion:

Atmospheric circulation - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Billy_Bob]

... based on evidence that climate change is primarily the result of changes in poleward energy transport ...

This is taught the first week of Meteorology 201 class ... everything weather, climate and ocean starts with this motion ... simple F = ma ... so much of the misinformation in the mainstream media can be dismissed based on this fact ...

This deserves to be memorized ... everything weather, climate and ocean starts with this motion:

Atmospheric circulation - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

You would be correct. This paper also lays waste to Skeptical Science's graphing on the earth's energy budget. Once you get into the energy calculations and how the solar input affects our atmosphere the Climate Sensitivity number immediately is less than a 1 to 1 ratio. Current empirical evidence shows that number to be 0.6 deg C to 1. Which means the current warming of 0.3-0.6 deg C is well within those parameters. This throws Trenberth's and Mann's silly graphs into the trash bin of history.