The lines haven't moved significantly and rarely in Ukraine's favor in a year. The offensive force almost always incurs more casualties, something Ukraine can ill afford so if Russia turtles into a purely defensive war and decides to just keep the territory it currently has Ukraine can do little but weaken itself trying to take it back. They should have taken the deal that was on the table 3 weeks into this war but Biden (or whomever was running the country) took a gamble and lost. Ukraine will suffer because of it.
Chapter 1
If there ever was a reasonable deal proposed, it was the one by China in 2023 - intentionally rejected by NATO (before even reading it) - whilst indicating to Zelinsky the expected arrival of large quantities of NATO weaponry, that should enable him to beat the Russians back.
Zelisnki took on the gamble and attacked - even successfully, but due to a lesser progress then anticipated by NATO - following urgently needed weaponry wasn't delivered by NATO. At the end of the day the UAF were worse off then before they had launched this overall offensive. And Putin decided to strike back no matter the costs (something NATO had not anticipated) - thus Putin effectively taking more additionally territory then he had during the Chinese peace proposal.
Putin is very well aware that he can't afford additional huge manpower and material losses, but still keeps the offensive ongoing in anticipation that NATO might very well finally send those long time requested weaponry to Ukraine. And Putin indeed would then face a serious problem. Thanks to Biden's indecision, especially in the last 6 month plus Trump's idiotic involvement, Ukraine was severely hindered to press against the exhausted and still mediocre led Russian Forces.
So until "massive" NATO supplies roll into Ukraine - Putin naturally is taking his chance to make the best out of it - until NATO, foremost this naive Trump might finally commit himself to massive shipments - in the meantime Putin is playing Trump in regards to telling him that he want's peace - waiting to see IF those shipment eventually arrive, and if yes, well off-course he will accept a ceasefire whilst still haggling about the terms - foremost in regard to NATO and the USA committing themselves to stop arming Ukraine.
Chapter 2
If there is one thing I am absolutely sure about:
Putin will NOT hesitate to use tactical nukes (in Ukraine) - if he realizes that he can't hold onto his territorial gains in Ukraine. So how can NATO avoid such a scenario? - only via committing NATO troops into Ukraine - and again this naive Trump play's right into Putin's hands - via publicly stating that NATO aka US troops will NOT enter/participate within the Ukraine.
Ukraine knows very well, that a prolonged ceasefire will only be used by Putin to regroup and reform his Armed Forces - so as to strike again. Therefore excluding Ukraine from NATO simply and only works for Putin.
The USA since Bush sen. has caused this entire mess, so either they feed Ukraine to Putin, (exactly what Trump is doing) or get US forces involved in Ukraine, whilst demanding for Putin to pull out of Ukraine and setting a date for free elections for Crimea, Donbass and Luhansk and comitting themselves to keep Ukraine out of NATO.
Europe would be plain stupid to go into Ukraine - let the USA handle their own created mess and prepare Europe for a time when Ukraine is controlled by Russia - without a USA being around. Much less in regards to wasting hundreds of billions onto it's military - but in view of having to accomondate 10-15 million Ukrainians.
And keep in mind - Putin won't be around forever.
Just my 2 cents.
