Where the fuck did you get those numbers?
Yup, he's a moron, and RCP is indeed much closer to what's going to happen than whatever his inane ramblings are.
Even taking the current RCP polling averages, which are rather skewed toward Democrats because the polling industry are mostly all Democrats themselves (and are obviously biased in their polling because they NEVER err on the side of Republicans... iow, they always overestimate Democrats)...
The Senate is currently 44 (R) - 43 (D) when counting "safe" and "likely" seats. Then, there are only 2 seats that "lean D" but 4 that "lean R"... Assuming R's and D's each get all of those respective seats, R's are currently up 48-45... Then it depends on how the "toss up" states fall... R's only need 3 of those 7 seats to go their way to get control of the Senate.
Wisconsin -- will definitely go for Johnson --- +1 R!
Pennsylvania -- SHOULD go to Oz, but watch for fraud --- +1 R?
Washington -- don't count R's out here, but I suspect D's barely hold it --- +1 D?
Nevada -- SHOULD go to Laxalt, but watch for fraud --- +1 R?
New Hampshire -- a true toss up in my mind --- ???
Georgia -- Walker will win, whether in Nov or in Dec --- +1 R!
Arizona -- Masters has momentum and he will win on the back of Lake --- +1 R!
This means that R's should end up somewhere between 51 and 53 seats, with 55 seats possible. Given a "red wave", I expect R's to end up with 53-54 seats in the Senate, with D's probably holding Washington and maybe holding New Hampshire.
With regard to the House map, R's already easily have it won, as a whole bunch of "toss up" and "leans R" races will go their way. Under the same rules as above, R's are currently up roughly 228-174... Assuming that half of the toss ups go the R's way, that would get them up to roughly 245 seats, so my prediction of roughly 250 seats at the high end for R's is quite realistic.
www.racetothewh.com
