Uh Oh Al, scientist on Al's film

sitarro

Gold Member
Nov 17, 2003
5,186
1,028
153
USA
OOOOPS

http://www.canadafreepress.com/2006/harris061206.htm

Scientists respond to Gore's warnings of climate catastrophe

"The Inconvenient Truth" is indeed inconvenient to alarmists
By Tom Harris
Monday, June 12, 2006
"Scientists have an independent obligation to respect and present the truth as they see it," Al Gore sensibly asserts in his film "An Inconvenient Truth", showing at Cumberland 4 Cinemas in Toronto since Jun 2. With that outlook in mind, what do world climate experts actually think about the science of his movie?

Professor Bob Carter of the Marine Geophysical Laboratory at James Cook University, in Australia gives what, for many Canadians, is a surprising assessment: "Gore's circumstantial arguments are so weak that they are pathetic. It is simply incredible that they, and his film, are commanding public attention."

But surely Carter is merely part of what most people regard as a tiny cadre of "climate change skeptics" who disagree with the "vast majority of scientists" Gore cites?

No; Carter is one of hundreds of highly qualified non-governmental, non-industry, non-lobby group climate experts who contest the hypothesis that human emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) are causing significant global climate change. "Climate experts" is the operative term here. Why? Because what Gore's "majority of scientists" think is immaterial when only a very small fraction of them actually work in the climate field.

Even among that fraction, many focus their studies on the impacts of climate change; biologists, for example, who study everything from insects to polar bears to poison ivy. "While many are highly skilled researchers, they generally do not have special knowledge about the causes of global climate change," explains former University of Winnipeg climatology professor Dr. Tim Ball. "They usually can tell us only about the effects of changes in the local environment where they conduct their studies."

This is highly valuable knowledge, but doesn't make them climate change cause experts, only climate impact experts.

So we have a smaller fraction.

But it becomes smaller still. Among experts who actually examine the causes of change on a global scale, many concentrate their research on designing and enhancing computer models of hypothetical futures. "These models have been consistently wrong in all their scenarios," asserts Ball. "Since modelers concede computer outputs are not "predictions" but are in fact merely scenarios, they are negligent in letting policy-makers and the public think they are actually making forecasts."

We should listen most to scientists who use real data to try to understand what nature is actually telling us about the causes and extent of global climate change. In this relatively small community, there is no consensus, despite what Gore and others would suggest.

Here is a small sample of the side of the debate we almost never hear:

Appearing before the Commons Committee on Environment and Sustainable Development last year, Carleton University paleoclimatologist Professor Tim Patterson testified, "There is no meaningful correlation between CO2 levels and Earth's temperature over this [geologic] time frame. In fact, when CO2 levels were over ten times higher than they are now, about 450 million years ago, the planet was in the depths of the absolute coldest period in the last half billion years." Patterson asked the committee, "On the basis of this evidence, how could anyone still believe that the recent relatively small increase in CO2 levels would be the major cause of the past century's modest warming?"

Patterson concluded his testimony by explaining what his research and "hundreds of other studies" reveal: on all time scales, there is very good correlation between Earth's temperature and natural celestial phenomena such changes in the brightness of the Sun.

Dr. Boris Winterhalter, former marine researcher at the Geological Survey of Finland and professor in marine geology, University of Helsinki, takes apart Gore's dramatic display of Antarctic glaciers collapsing into the sea. "The breaking glacier wall is a normally occurring phenomenon which is due to the normal advance of a glacier," says Winterhalter. "In Antarctica the temperature is low enough to prohibit melting of the ice front, so if the ice is grounded, it has to break off in beautiful ice cascades. If the water is deep enough icebergs will form."

Dr. Wibjörn Karlén, emeritus professor, Dept. of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, Sweden, admits, "Some small areas in the Antarctic Peninsula have broken up recently, just like it has done back in time. The temperature in this part of Antarctica has increased recently, probably because of a small change in the position of the low pressure systems."

But Karlén clarifies that the 'mass balance' of Antarctica is positive - more snow is accumulating than melting off. As a result, Ball explains, there is an increase in the 'calving' of icebergs as the ice dome of Antarctica is growing and flowing to the oceans. When Greenland and Antarctica are assessed together, "their mass balance is considered to possibly increase the sea level by 0.03 mm/year - not much of an effect," Karlén concludes.

The Antarctica has survived warm and cold events over millions of years. A meltdown is simply not a realistic scenario in the foreseeable future.

Gore tells us in the film, "Starting in 1970, there was a precipitous drop-off in the amount and extent and thickness of the Arctic ice cap." This is misleading, according to Ball: "The survey that Gore cites was a single transect across one part of the Arctic basin in the month of October during the 1960s when we were in the middle of the cooling period. The 1990 runs were done in the warmer month of September, using a wholly different technology."

Karlén explains that a paper published in 2003 by University of Alaska professor Igor Polyakov shows that, the region of the Arctic where rising temperature is supposedly endangering polar bears showed fluctuations since 1940 but no overall temperature rise. "For several published records it is a decrease for the last 50 years," says Karlén

Dr. Dick Morgan, former advisor to the World Meteorological Organization and climatology researcher at University of Exeter, U.K. gives the details, "There has been some decrease in ice thickness in the Canadian Arctic over the past 30 years but no melt down. The Canadian Ice Service records show that from 1971-1981 there was average, to above average, ice thickness. From 1981-1982 there was a sharp decrease of 15% but there was a quick recovery to average, to slightly above average, values from 1983-1995. A sharp drop of 30% occurred again 1996-1998 and since then there has been a steady increase to reach near normal conditions since 2001."

Concerning Gore's beliefs about worldwide warming, Morgan points out that, in addition to the cooling in the NW Atlantic, massive areas of cooling are found in the North and South Pacific Ocean; the whole of the Amazon Valley; the north coast of South America and the Caribbean; the eastern Mediterranean, Black Sea, Caucasus and Red Sea; New Zealand and even the Ganges Valley in India. Morgan explains, "Had the IPCC used the standard parameter for climate change (the 30 year average) and used an equal area projection, instead of the Mercator (which doubled the area of warming in Alaska, Siberia and the Antarctic Ocean) warming and cooling would have been almost in balance."

Gore's point that 200 cities and towns in the American West set all time high temperature records is also misleading according to Dr. Roy Spencer, Principal Research Scientist at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. "It is not unusual for some locations, out of the thousands of cities and towns in the U.S., to set all-time records," he says. "The actual data shows that overall, recent temperatures in the U.S. were not unusual."

Carter does not pull his punches about Gore's activism, "The man is an embarrassment to US science and its many fine practitioners, a lot of whom know (but feel unable to state publicly) that his propaganda crusade is mostly based on junk science."

In April sixty of the world's leading experts in the field asked Prime Minister Harper to order a thorough public review of the science of climate change, something that has never happened in Canada. Considering what's at stake - either the end of civilization, if you believe Gore, or a waste of billions of dollars, if you believe his opponents - it seems like a reasonable request.

Tom Harris is mechanical engineer and Ottawa Director of High Park Group, a public affairs and public policy company.
 
Well crap, if you are going to bring the REAL experts into there wont be any fun (or funding...lol) at all!
 
cRAP! I was on my way to post this very article!

LOL. Go on Al, I hope they select him as their next candidate!
 
I can't wait to read the spin our leftist Al lovers on the board will put on this article.:cof:
 
sitarro said:
I can't wait to read the spin our leftist Al lovers on the board will put on this article.:cof:
LOL...first thinf they will do is point out that the article is Canadian and everyone KNOWS that global warming is the US's fault
 
My favorite quote:

Carter does not pull his punches about Gore's activism, "The man is an embarrassment to US science and its many fine practitioners, a lot of whom know (but feel unable to state publicly) that his propaganda crusade is mostly based on junk science."

Gore definitely knows about being an embarrassment.

He has had enough practice.
 
GotZoom said:
My favorite quote:

Carter does not pull his punches about Gore's activism, "The man is an embarrassment to US science and its many fine practitioners, a lot of whom know (but feel unable to state publicly) that his propaganda crusade is mostly based on junk science."

Gore definitely knows about being an embarrassment.

He has had enough practice.

Gotta love some outspoken reality getting a little attention. Gore has to be saying "oh shit not again, they got me on that internet bullshit last time, now this.":rotflmao:
 
sitarro said:
Concerning Gore's beliefs about worldwide warming, Morgan points out that, in addition to the cooling in the NW Atlantic, massive areas of cooling are found in the North and South Pacific Ocean; the whole of the Amazon Valley; the north coast of South America and the Caribbean; the eastern Mediterranean, Black Sea, Caucasus and Red Sea; New Zealand and even the Ganges Valley in India. Morgan explains, "Had the IPCC used the standard parameter for climate change (the 30 year average) and used an equal area projection, instead of the Mercator (which doubled the area of warming in Alaska, Siberia and the Antarctic Ocean) warming and cooling would have been almost in balance."

See http://grida.se/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/pdf/TAR-02.PDF pg. 116 (18 of 84) in Section 2.1.

See also http://holocene.meteo.psu.edu/shared/articles/KnightetalGRL05.pdf (2 of 4)

Gore's point that 200 cities and towns in the American West set all time high temperature records is also misleading according to Dr. Roy Spencer, Principal Research Scientist at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. "It is not unusual for some locations, out of the thousands of cities and towns in the U.S., to set all-time records," he says. "The actual data shows that overall, recent temperatures in the U.S. were not unusual."

The best data to use is simply to ask average people who have been alive. The longer Americans have been alive, the more likely they recognize that the temperature has increased. See also the references above. Also check the mean temperatures yourself.
 
catatonic said:

Why do you insist on acting like you are going to get banned? Why can't you just post as a new user and leave it as that? Are you looking to instigate for some reason?
 
jimnyc said:
Why do you insist on acting like you are going to get banned? Why can't you just post as a new user and leave it as that? Are you looking to instigate for some reason?
Ya think? I nearly posted, "time out" but figured it would be quoted, even if a joke.
 
A poster in the last thread clearly stated that if I started off full-swing in the upper boards, I would get banned.

I am making clear that this is not my intention.

Can we get back on topic?
 
catatonic said:
A poster in the last thread clearly stated that if I started off full-swing in the upper boards, I would get banned.

I am making clear that this is not my intention.

Can we get back on topic?
Telling the owner what to do is not good form. Just post and see what occurs.
 
jimnyc said:
Why do you insist on acting like you are going to get banned? Why can't you just post as a new user and leave it as that? Are you looking to instigate for some reason?

Looks like our new member has issues. Though it's kind of sweet that he/she loves us so much that he/she is petrified of being banned.
 
Originally Posted by sitarro
Quote of Tom Harris
Concerning Gore's beliefs about worldwide warming, Morgan points out that, in addition to the cooling in the NW Atlantic, massive areas of cooling are found in the North and South Pacific Ocean; the whole of the Amazon Valley; the north coast of South America and the Caribbean; the eastern Mediterranean, Black Sea, Caucasus and Red Sea; New Zealand and even the Ganges Valley in India. Morgan explains, "Had the IPCC used the standard parameter for climate change (the 30 year average) and used an equal area projection, instead of the Mercator (which doubled the area of warming in Alaska, Siberia and the Antarctic Ocean) warming and cooling would have been almost in balance."


See http://grida.se/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/pdf/TAR-02.PDF pg. 116 (18 of 84) in Section 2.1.

See also http://holocene.meteo.psu.edu/shared...tetalGRL05.pdf (2 of 4)


Gore's point that 200 cities and towns in the American West set all time high temperature records is also misleading according to Dr. Roy Spencer, Principal Research Scientist at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. "It is not unusual for some locations, out of the thousands of cities and towns in the U.S., to set all-time records," he says. "The actual data shows that overall, recent temperatures in the U.S. were not unusual."




The best data to use is simply to ask average people who have been alive. The longer Americans have been alive, the more likely they recognize that the temperature has increased. See also the references above. Also check the mean temperatures yourself.
 
catatonic said:
Quote:
Originally Posted by sitarro
Concerning Gore's beliefs about worldwide warming, Morgan points out that, in addition to the cooling in the NW Atlantic, massive areas of cooling are found in the North and South Pacific Ocean; the whole of the Amazon Valley; the north coast of South America and the Caribbean; the eastern Mediterranean, Black Sea, Caucasus and Red Sea; New Zealand and even the Ganges Valley in India. Morgan explains, "Had the IPCC used the standard parameter for climate change (the 30 year average) and used an equal area projection, instead of the Mercator (which doubled the area of warming in Alaska, Siberia and the Antarctic Ocean) warming and cooling would have been almost in balance."


See http://grida.se/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/pdf/TAR-02.PDF pg. 116 (18 of 84) in Section 2.1.

See also http://holocene.meteo.psu.edu/shared...tetalGRL05.pdf (2 of 4)


Quote:
Gore's point that 200 cities and towns in the American West set all time high temperature records is also misleading according to Dr. Roy Spencer, Principal Research Scientist at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. "It is not unusual for some locations, out of the thousands of cities and towns in the U.S., to set all-time records," he says. "The actual data shows that overall, recent temperatures in the U.S. were not unusual."

The best data to use is simply to ask average people who have been alive. The longer Americans have been alive, the more likely they recognize that the temperature has increased. See also the references above. Also check the mean temperatures yourself.

i have been alive a long time....this has been the coldest fall, the coldest winter the coldest spring and the coldest summer i can remeber in the last 46 years....mean temperatures are taken in cities were reflected heat from paving and smog increase the ambient air temperatures.....so i say global warming as al "internet creator" gore defines it is................bullshit
 
catatonic said:
The best data to use is simply to ask average people who have been alive. The longer Americans have been alive, the more likely they recognize that the temperature has increased.

Americans? don't you mean humans of any country?

How accurate is the human nervous system over the course of a life time in determining a rise of .6C??
 
manu1959 said:
i have been alive a long time....this has been the coldest fall, the coldest winter the coldest spring and the coldest summer i can remeber in the last 46 years....mean temperatures are taken in cities were reflected heat from paving and smog increase the ambient air temperatures.....so i say global warming as al "internet creator" gore defines it is................bullshit


this just in ... is now cold and rainy .... in formerly hot sunny california
 
catatonic said:
Anyway it was a joke.
Right. Another shining bulb:


sitarro said:
Originally Posted by sitarro
Concerning Gore's beliefs about worldwide warming, Morgan points out that, in addition to the cooling in the NW Atlantic, massive areas of cooling are found in the North and South Pacific Ocean; the whole of the Amazon Valley; the north coast of South America and the Caribbean; the eastern Mediterranean, Black Sea, Caucasus and Red Sea; New Zealand and even the Ganges Valley in India. Morgan explains, "Had the IPCC used the standard parameter for climate change (the 30 year average) and used an equal area projection, instead of the Mercator (which doubled the area of warming in Alaska, Siberia and the Antarctic Ocean) warming and cooling would have been almost in balance."


See http://grida.se/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/pdf/TAR-02.PDF pg. 116 (18 of 84) in Section 2.1.

See also http://holocene.meteo.psu.edu/shared...tetalGRL05.pdf (2 of 4)


someone said:
Gore's point that 200 cities and towns in the American West set all time high temperature records is also misleading according to Dr. Roy Spencer, Principal Research Scientist at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. "It is not unusual for some locations, out of the thousands of cities and towns in the U.S., to set all-time records," he says. "The actual data shows that overall, recent temperatures in the U.S. were not unusual."




The best data to use is simply to ask average people who have been alive. The longer Americans have been alive, the more likely they recognize that the temperature has increased. See also the references above. Also check the mean temperatures yourself.
Edit/Delete Message
 

Forum List

Back
Top