‘“The Trump campaign assumes that employers would simply replace the deported workers with native workers, but the historical record shows that employer behavior is far more complicated than that,” according to a PIIE story about the research on Sept. 26.
“Past experience with deportations demonstrates that employers do not find it easy to replace such workers. Instead, they respond by investing in less labor-intensive technologies to sustain their businesses, or they simply decide not to expand their operations. The net result is fewer people employed in key business sectors like services, agriculture, and manufacturing. In addition, those unauthorized immigrants aren’t just workers—they’re consumers too. Deporting them means less demand for groceries, housing, services, and other household needs. This lower spending in turn reduces demand for workers in those sectors. That reduced demand for workers in all types of jobs outweighs the reduction of supply of unauthorized workers. Contrary to the Trump campaign’s assumption that deporting workers increases domestic employment, removing immigrants reduces jobs for other US workers.”
The researchers also warn, as did the authors of the literature review published by the University of New Hampshire, that mass deportations will spike inflation in the short term.
“On the whole, unauthorized immigrants act as complements for US-born workers rather than substitutes for them,” Chloe East, an associate professor in economics at the University of Colorado and a non-resident fellow at Brookings Institution, told us via email. “My research has found that one of the last mass deportation episodes in the US, which deported about 400,000 people over 2008-2014, actually hurt the US labor market and job prospects for US-born workers. For every 100 people removed from the labor market because of deportations, 9 US-born people lost a job permanently.’
On the campaign trail, President-elect Donald Trump repeatedly vowed to begin "the largest deportation program in American history." How exactly he plans to carry that out, and how many he ultimately intends to deport, remains unclear.
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Trump Cult members don’t care about the facts, blinded by racism, bigotry, and hate.