No, but we control the sky.
No, you don't. You can't prevent delivery of important cargo from Caspian coast to launch positions.
Modern history of America proves quite opposite. You are pragmatic guys and when you see that potential losses are more significant than potential incomes - you quite and try to minimise damage. Same is your official position in nuclear posture. That's the position of "Coercers".
But probe to agree with the group of "eliminators". We agree with you. You won't alleviate and therefore you (at least your nuclear forces) should be eliminated. Russia will pay significant, may be, even terrible price, but if the war is inevitable it's much better to strike first.
You are the one who always thinks the enemy will surrender before more nukes are used.
Actually, it's you. You believe that Iran will surrender (and Russia+China alleviate) before nukes (or more nukes) are used.
If Iran pulled a nuke out of their a$$ and nuked Israel, how many Iranian cities would get nuked?
10? 20? Iran would cease to exist.
If Iran nuke one Israel's military base, Israel (and the USA) face the choice -
1) accept Iran's peaceful proposals, don't retaliate and surrender;
2) try to nuke Iran's military bases and play Limited Nuclear war with tactical nukes. Given that Iran (and Russia+China) have more nukes and military bases - Iran is going to win.
3) don't play counter-force games and try counter-value strike against Iranian cities. If you try counter-value strike without counter-force preparations - Iranian retaliation against Israel and American cities will be devastating.
We have 3,500 warheads. More than enough to destroy any country and the planet.
Most of those warheads are in storages. Some are in bases (and to be eliminated by the first Russian/Chinese/Iranian strike). You hardly have one thousand nukes on alert, Iran has 1250 cities and most of those cities need more than one nuke to be destroyed. Iran has 25% of rustic population and even in totally destroyed city, if population is prepared, evacuated and sheltered significant part of it (may be more than 75% of urban population) will survive.
So, if they are shooting first, and they are prepared - you'll kill no more than 10-20 mln of Iranians.
What is even more important - if you are launching all you have, Russia and China will kill you without your retaliation at all.
Remember, scientists say more than 100 total nuclear detonations ends civilization.
They are not scientists, they are pseudo-scientific freaks. And even they don't say about "end of civilisation". They say about affected agriculture. And trust me, decrease of fertilizeres supply (which you are going to have if this conflict continues on the current level) will affect agriculture more seriously than a year without summer (like 1816).
Russia is busy in Ukraine, and China has other domestic problems to deal with.
Wishful thinking. Russia doesn't see Ukrainian conflict and Iranian conflict as two separate wars. It's the same indirect war with the USA, just with different proxies. And if there is a possibility to hurt America's allies more painfully than in Ukraine (and earn some additional money) Russia is going to use it.
The US wants to get Iran out of the nuclear terror business, it may take some time, patience is a virtue.
More you wait - more Iranians are convinced that they should get in "nuclear terror business".
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