Trump Recession?

[Robert W]

Okay, where are the other articles that show bias for all the other economists that stated the same? I mean, it isn't just one economist. In fact, do you consider JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and the Deutsche Bank (who is the one that lent money to Trump in the year 2000, when no one else would) biased against Trump?

Please take each one of those below and do the same explanation. Prove that I am wrong.

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JPMorgan and other financial institutions are raising their estimates for a global recession to 60% due to the Trump administration's tariffs, which are seen as a significant economic shock.

Here's a more detailed breakdown:

• Increased Recession Risk:
  JPMorgan, a major Wall Street bank, has raised its estimate of a global recession to 60% in 2025, up from 40% previously.
  
  
• Trump's Tariffs as a Catalyst:
  The main driver for this increase is the Trump administration's recent announcement of a sweeping new tariff regime, which is seen as a major economic shock.
  
  
• Bruce Kasman's Perspective:
  Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan's chief economist, stated that disruptive U.S. policies have been recognized as the biggest risk to the global outlook all year, and the latest news reinforces those fears.
  
  
• Economic Impact:
  The tariffs are expected to amount to a 20 percentage point increase in U.S. tariff rates, comparable to the largest U.S. tax rise since 1968, according to JPMorgan analysts.
  
  
• Potential Consequences:
  The tariffs could lead to retaliatory actions from other countries, weakening business sentiment in the U.S., and disrupting global supply chains.
  
  
• Other Perspectives:
  Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, has also expressed a similar view, stating that the odds of a US recession this year are increasing to 60%.
  
  
• CNBC CFO Council Survey:
  A majority of chief financial officers responding to the quarterly CNBC CFO Council Survey expect a recession in the second half of 2025.
  
  
• Deutsche Bank Survey:
  A Deutsche Bank survey suggests the probability of a recession is approaching 50%, with bond expert Jeffrey Gundlach at DoubleLine Capital seeing the chances at 50% to 60%.
  
  
• Goldman Sachs:
  Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 35%, up from 20%, citing surging tariffs as a threat to growth.
  

You protected yourself by selling out, correct?

 

[Hollie]

According to the Dimwinger Cult we should be in a depression and WWIII.

I couldn’t help but notice that the OP didn’t age well over the past year. Employment numbers far exceeding expectations obviously indicate a strengthening economy.

The sad sack OP is a purveyor of fear porn, desperate to show her insensate hatred for Trump.

 

[San Souci]

Nobel Prize-Winning Economist Warns of Trump Recession

A Nobel Prize-winning economist has told Newsweek that President Trump's trade policies and the ambiguity surrounding their implementation are pushing America toward an economic downturn.

The warning came from James Heckman, a professor of economics at the University of Chicago, who said: "The fear of tariffs and the uncertainty about their magnitude and duration is causing the recession."

Trump's trade math baffles economists It is "idiotic and flawed"​

Trade economists were scratching their heads on Thursday at the formula used by the White House to measure trade imbalances and inflict punishment on all its global trading partners.

Handed a chart in the White House Rose Garden, US President Donald Trump presented the rationale for how his administration would impose reciprocal tariffs on partners ranging from major powers like China and Europe to the smallest nations.

The figures presented bear little resemblance to actual tariff levels, however. "This is to economics what creationism is to biology, astrology is to astronomy," former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers posted on X.

and on and on and more.........

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What this all clearly shows

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Another Fatassed Ivory Tower Intellectual who has NEVER Worked a day in his life. REal Employment is way up..GOV'T Jobs have been CUT--Thanx ,DOGE

 

[Robert W]

Another Fatassed Ivory Tower Intellectual who has NEVER Worked a day in his life. REal Employment is way up..GOV'T Jobs have been CUT--Thanx ,DOGE

What To Know​

Heckman, who was awarded the 2000 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics for his work on microeconometrics, said it was "too soon to say" whether Trump's tariff policies had irreversibly changed or damaged America's trading relationships.

However, he added that while a recession is not yet guaranteed, one is likely to occur in 2025, with other aspects of the administration's agenda adding to the "uncertainty" that was making this outcome more probable.