Toro
Diamond Member
Trump has brought out more voters to the polls, both for him and against him. But mostly against him.
He's also swung the college educated against the GOP, and those who typically don't vote. That's one reason why the Republicans have done poorly in the last two midterms.
He's also swung the college educated against the GOP, and those who typically don't vote. That's one reason why the Republicans have done poorly in the last two midterms.
since the election of Donald Trump in 2016, “we’ve discovered that Trump turns out more people on our side than theirs” in the battleground states. Before 2016, Podhorzer told me, it was Democrats who had the math problem. Midterm elections had been dominated by a whiter, more conservative electorate. Trump’s win in 2016, however, added a new tranche of voters to the electorate. Using data from the Catalist voter file, Podhorzer estimates that these “new voters” (defined as those who voted in 2018 and 2020, but had not voted in 2014, or, if they were eligible for the first time, voted in 2020), number almost 40 million. These voters aren’t necessarily Democrats, says Podhorzer, but “they are anti-MAGA.”
As such, Democrats’ political success comes down to a pretty simple equation. When those millions of “new voters” show up, Democrats can win. When they don’t, Democrats fall short. ...
“In 2016, despite losing the popular vote, Trump became president by virtue of his Electoral College victory. That election made clear that the political fulcrum would be the states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.” Trump won all five of those states in 2016. Since then, however, Republicans have steadily lost ground. “In those five states, on the day that Trump was sworn in, only one state had a Democratic governor (Pennsylvania), only four Democrats served in the Senate, and Democrats did not constitute a majority in any of the 10 state legislative chambers.” Today, however, “four of the five governors will be Democrats, 8 of the 10 Senators will be Democrats, and three of the state legislative chambers will have Democratic majorities.” And, of course, Joe Biden carried every one of those states in 2020.
Plus, as the Pew Research verified voter study found, voters who sat out 2016 but came out in 2018 and 2020 supported Biden by 26 points.
The Republicans’ Math Problem in Midterms and Potentially 2024
Politics isn’t all that complicated. It’s really just math. But, as those of us who were never big fans of the subject in school can attest, sometimes math can be hard. As I write this on Thursday, the most prominent political figure in America, Republican Kevin McCarthy, has a very big math...
www.cookpolitical.com
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