Time Expiring for Obamacare to Avoid Death Spiral

[Wehrwolfen]

by Robert Wilde
14 Jan 2014

The dreaded "death spiral" for Obamacare is looking more like a reality. With 2.2 million Americans having signed up for Obamacare from October 1 to December 28, older, sicker pools of enrollees (ages 45-64) are outnumbering the younger, healthy enrollees (ages 18-34) by a margin of 55% to 24%.

According to a new Kaiser Family Foundation report, Obamacare will need about 40% of enrollees to be young, healthy adults to “cross-subsidize” the older and sicker participants. "If enrollment among young adults falls short, then the total amount of premiums collected by insurers will be less than the total health care expenses of enrollees plus administrative overhead and profit," the report states.

[Excerpt]

Read more:
Time Expiring for Obamacare to Avoid Death Spiral

Obama's young are failing to follow his orders to join the Ponsi scheme. In the end Obamacare is destined to fail. Obama will make certain the middleclass taxpayer will foot the bill.

 

[JimBowie1958]

He WANTS the death spiral so he can then replace it effectively with 'single payer' health care system using executive orders, since the GOP doesn't have the balls to stop him.

 

[Mad_Cabbie]

CBS: Mechanisms Built Into The Affordable Care Act Work to Prevent A "Death Spiral." In a December 27 CBS News article, Stephanie Condon explained that the CBO projection of 7 million is not critical for the Affordable Care Act's success, and concluded that a death spiral is unlikely to happen due to mechanisms built into the law to prevent problems with cost. Condon also reported on a study conducted by the Kaiser Family Foundation that showed "even if young adults only made up 25 percent of the market rather than 40 percent, overall costs in individual market plans would only be about 2.4 percent higher than premium revenues":

The concern has been that if only older, sicker people join Obamacare, the costs of covering that market would leader to higher premiums. That would, in turn, prompt even more healthy people to leave the market, leading to the dreaded "death spiral." The death spiral is unlikely to happen in large part because of mechanisms built into the Affordable Care Act to prevent that. In fact, even if far fewer young, healthy people sign up than expected, the impact on the Obamacare markets would be relatively minimal, some argue.

"Even in what I think is a worst-case enrollment scenario, premiums would only go up by two-and-a-half percent," Larry Levitt, a senior vice president at the Kaiser Family Foundation, told CBS News. "It would be better to get a good mix of enrollees, but it wouldn't make or break the program if you don't."

Levitt and his colleagues at Kaiser Family Foundation simulated the effects of two different enrollment scenarios. They found that even if young adults only made up 25 percent of the market rather than 40 percent, overall costs in individual market plans would only be about 2.4 percent higher than premium revenues. Given that insurers set premiums to achieve a 3-4 percent profit margins, they'd still be making money. They would, however, likely pass on that increased costs to customers in the form of higher premiums -- though hardly high enough to risk the "death spiral."

Even if enrollment is very low by the end of March -- with relatively few younger, healthier customers -- the market will have a chance to recover. Rick Curtis, president of the Institute for Health Policy Solutions, co-wrote an article pointing out that a substantial number of people should be expected to enroll in an Obamacare plan during "special enrollment periods," which accommodate people experiencing certain life changes such as becoming a citizen, getting married, or moving to a new coverage area. [CBS News, 12/27/13]

http://mediamatters.org/research/2014/01/02/what-fox-wont-tell-you-about-health-care-enroll/197397

 

[theDoctorisIn]

Whoops. Fixed.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Whoops. Fixed.

What? You fixed Obamacare?

Damn, you are a freaking wizard of the modern age, lol.

No, wait, I bet you just dropped 30 million people from the 'looking for insurance' category;

My bad.

 

[Politico]

The corridor allows a bailout. You are going to pay for it no matter what happens.

 

[william the wie]

The corridor expenditures are also constrained by the takings clause (4th amendment) and state government autonomy (10th amendment). For example ER admissions due to subsidy payments ceased 10/1/13. Tenn state employees are covered under Tenncare and won't be participating in Ocare if the state government doesn't want to. That will see many more defections as well.

 

[dblack]

He WANTS the death spiral so he can then replace it effectively with 'single payer' health care system using executive orders, since the GOP doesn't have the balls to stop him.

Which highlights the crazy irony in all of this. He won't get it.

It will be Republicans who "save" Obamacare. They'll do it specifically to prevent single payer, just as they originally proposed.

 

[Rozman]

This never made any sense to me..
Obama and the Democrats and everyone else said that young people were needed to fund this mess.
Then in the bill Obama and the Demorats were so proud of the fact that young people were going to
be on their parents insurance till age 26.

HUH?

 

[william the wie]

This never made any sense to me..
Obama and the Democrats and everyone else said that young people were needed to fund this mess.
Then in the bill Obama and the Demorats were so proud of the fact that young people were going to
be on their parents insurance till age 26.

HUH?

Pelosi was off her meds.

 

[Luddly Neddite]

Why don't the kneejerkers know that all insurance has always depended on the premiums of the healthy in order to pay the claims of the sick and injured?

 

[william the wie]

Ocare is simply unaffordable, LN

 

[MeBelle]

Why don't the kneejerkers know that all insurance has always depended on the premiums of the healthy in order to pay the claims of the sick and injured?

Talk about knee jerking!

The cost of ACA for a family of four making $95k a year in California will bankrupt this family in a year or two.

 

[billyerock1991]

Why don't the kneejerkers know that all insurance has always depended on the premiums of the healthy in order to pay the claims of the sick and injured?

Talk about knee jerking!

The cost of ACA for a family of four making $95k a year in California will bankrupt this family in a year or two.

and you know this how???

 

[billyerock1991]

Why don't the kneejerkers know that all insurance has always depended on the premiums of the healthy in order to pay the claims of the sick and injured?

Talk about knee jerking!

The cost of ACA for a family of four making $95k a year in California will bankrupt this family in a year or two.

subsidy for a family of four as you can see your 684 dollars a month, 8200 a year won't bankrupt any one...
if you can't read the chart click on it it will get bigger...

 

[william the wie]

I guess that's why GOP results in special elections are surprising so much on the upside.

 

[MeBelle]

Talk about knee jerking!

The cost of ACA for a family of four making $95k a year in California will bankrupt this family in a year or two.

and you know this how???

Hmmm, I know this because I'm NOT stupid.

Talk about knee jerking!

The cost of ACA for a family of four making $95k a year in California will bankrupt this family in a year or two.

subsidy for a family of four as you can see your 684 dollars a month, 8200 a year won't bankrupt any one...
if you can't read the chart click on it it will get bigger...

Here's some reality for you Billy.
This family is not eligible for a subsidy.Your Financial Samurai source is wrong.
Their yearly health insurance premium is $20,676.00
That's before any deductibles are met and doesn't include co-pays.

https://www.coveredca.com/individuals-and-families/