Representative Thomas Massie’s chances of winning against Trump-backed challenger Ed Gallrein in the Republican primary for Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District have plunged one day before the election.
Early Monday, Massie, who had previously been the favorite on prediction markets, slipped down to a 43 percent chance of victory on both Kalshi and Poloymarket, down from 61 percent and 56 percent respectively on Saturday, as in-person early voting ended.
I don't know about those "prediction markets" but some here put faith in them. I prefer to let the voters decide.
Traditional polls show roughly the same thing.
New poll shows Gallrein overtaking Massie in GOP primary
GOP primary
Photo by: Jon Cherry/AP
Congressional candidate Ed Gallrein speaks as President Donald Trump listens at Verst Logistics Contract Packaging Facility Wednesday, March 11, 2026, in Hebron, Ky. (AP Photo/Jon Cherry)
FRANKFORT, Ky. — A new
Quantus Insights poll published on May 13 shows Rep. Thomas Massie now trailing former Navy SEAL
Ed Gallrein in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District GOP primary election.
In the new poll, Quantus Insights showed Gallrein moving ahead of Massie, 53% to 45% — an eight-point margin. The same pollster previously showed Massie ahead 47% to 38%.