”The West” has backed itself into a corner over Ukraine

[ZestolPastilevsky]

What is your point? 100% of Sweden is still under Swedish control.

The Ukrainis have been routed time and time again. But what is your point anyway?

And whose goal is all of that? What are you talking about? You don't know what you are talking about.

Yeah, and 80% after almost three years isn't the sort of pressure needed to make Ukraine come to the negotiating table. The rate of Russian advance isn't fast enough, and their gains aren't big enough to put the squeeze on Kiev to negotiate. That's why it matters that the front hasn't collapsed. Unless the front collapses, Kiev is unlikely to negotiate.

It's currently similar to the position that Germany was in in 1917. It was losing, but it still had a lot of land, and a lot of troops. Germany could have kept fighting, but Kaiser Wilhelm II gave a shit, so he agreed to the peace terms.

Finally, those goals are the only sensible goals. If Ukraine still exists after the war, what will prevent it from remilitarizing, joining NATO, and just going to war again? And why would Russia trust Ukraine to adhere to any sort of peace agreement after Minsk II?

 

[ZestolPastilevsky]

You are hitting them with 200% to protect YOUR economy and millions of lives. This goes well beyond Ukraine alone. It is a critical deterrence. The have many billion dollar sea.ports around the globe. .They have a plan. This plan will end with war if they aren't blunted. The addition of N Korean troops in Russia has increased the stakes rather quickly.

That may be your reason for the tariff, but it's very unlikely to play out like that. Most of the US' goods come from China. The price of those goods will skyrocket. The US is unable to produce those goods for cheaper within its own borders.

The US has no obligations to Ukraine. Simple as. Deterrence comes in the form of the nuclear umbrella which covers the US and its allies (which it is legally obligated to protect).

Furthermore, there's yet to be any evidence presented that there are North Korean troops involved in the conflict beyond some grainy photographs peddled by dubious intelligence agencies.

 

[shockedcanadian]

That may be your reason for the tariff, but it's very unlikely to play out like that. Most of the US' goods come from China. The price of those goods will skyrocket. The US is unable to produce those goods for cheaper within its own borders.

The US has no obligations to Ukraine. Simple as. Deterrence comes in the form of the nuclear umbrella which covers the US and its allies (which it is legally obligated to protect).

Furthermore, there's yet to be any evidence presented that there are North Korean troops involved in the conflict beyond some grainy photographs peddled by dubious intelligence agencies.

Manufacture in Texas, no shipping costs either. N Korean troops.are there and have suffered.losses. This is according to S Korean intelligence. They and Japan in particular identify a real threat from N Korea and it has caught their attention. Unlike in the West, these nations.understand the China/N Korea relationship. These same Asian nations have long, proud histories, they don't easily forget these past lessons and are weary of responses from adversaries for actions that sometimes go back centuries.

 

[ZestolPastilevsky]

Manufacture in Texas, no shipping costs either. N Korean troops.are there and have suffered.losses. This is according to S Korean intelligence. They and Japan in particular identify a real threat from.N Korea and it has caught their attention. These Asian nations have long, proud histories. They don't forget these past lessons and are weary of responses from adversaries for actions that sometimes go back centuries.

South Korean intelligence says so? And you just believe it? Hell, the "evidence" they presented was a few grainy photographs. You don't think that they might have a reason to drum up fear about North Korea?

Texas can't produce cheaper than China. Probably not in the same quantities either. Double so since the US largely deindustrialized.

For the third time, why would Russia trust a no-NATO pledge? What stops Ukraine and the West from just going back on it?

 

[shockedcanadian]

South Korean intelligence says so? And you just believe it? Hell, the "evidence" they presented was a few grainy photographs. You don't think that they might have a reason to drum up fear about North Korea?

Texas can't produce cheaper than China. Probably not in the same quantities either. Double so since the US largely deindustrialized.

For the third time, why would Russia trust a no-NATO pledge? What stops Ukraine and the West from just going back on it?

Russia can trust a no NATO pledge because the alternative is not good for them.

 

[ESay]

It's quite bizarre, and I'm not sure what the logic is. From what I read, only in this past year did Russian forces numerically start to match the Ukrainian forces deployed. If I'm not mistaken, at the start of the war, Ukraine had like 700,000 men under arms, and Russia sent in...I don't remember the exact number but it was something significantly less than 700,000. It may have been 200,000 or less.

The possibility of social tensions, maybe. Economic impact. The need to equip and feed an additional army, while military plants has already reached their full capacity.

 

[ZestolPastilevsky]

Russia can trust a no NATO pledge because the alternative is not good for them.

"Trust it or else" is not negotiation. You're not going to intimidate a country with 5,000 nukes. Especially not while it's winning.

 

[ZestolPastilevsky]

The possibility of social tensions, maybe. Economic impact. The need to equip and feed an additional army, while military plants has already reached their full capacity.

The thing is that the number is increasing. My theory is that it was some kind of attempt to...I dunno...show off, or save face. "Look! We were outnumbered and still won!" Of course it didn't pan out that way.

 

[shockedcanadian]

"Trust it or else" is not negotiation. You're not going to intimidate a country with 5,000 nukes. Especially not while it's winning.

They were supposed to have taken Kiev within two weeks.

It's over two years later and we had Japanese leaders visit Kiev this week not a concern in the world that they are in any danger.

This has been a costly war for everyone, Russia and Ukraine paying the most.

 

[ZestolPastilevsky]

They were supposed to have taken Kiev within two weeks.

It's over two years later and we had Japanese leaders visit Kiev this week not a concern in the world that they are in any danger.

Well, what, do you expect Russians to launch a cruise missile strike on the Japanese delegation? Why would they do that? If you follow what's been going on on the front, Ukrainian forces have been inching backwards for several months now. Like I said in another post, the front hasn't collapsed, but it's clear that they're on the back foot.

 

[ESay]

The thing is that the number is increasing. My theory is that it was some kind of attempt to...I dunno...show off, or save face. "Look! We were outnumbered and still won!" Of course it didn't pan out that way.

They had to increase the number because their advance not only stalled, but they became steadily lose the ground (back in 2022). And the main question is whether they reached the maximal point where they can sustain their army without severe impact on the economy and society or not. Something tells me they did.

 

[ZestolPastilevsky]

They had to increase the number because their advance not only stalled, but they became steadily lose the ground (back in 2022). And the main question is whether they reached the maximal point where they can sustain their army without severe impact on the economy and society or not. Something tells me they did.

Time will tell.

 

[shockedcanadian]

Well, what, do you expect Russians to launch a cruise missile strike on the Japanese delegation? Why would they do that? If you follow what's been going on on the front, Ukrainian forces have been inching backwards for several months now. Like I said in another post, the front hasn't collapsed, but it's clear that they're on the back foot.

Indeed. The last few feet are always the most difficult to obtain. Russia is trying to gain the most optimal negotiation situation they can. It may collapse if he isn't honest.

He can take a win or try to parlay his war into a big win at a far greater cost. These costs can be very unpredictable in times of extreme turmoil. He understands that.

 

[ZestolPastilevsky]

Indeed. The last few feet are always the most difficult to obtain. Russia is trying to gain the most optimal negotiation situation they can. It may collapse if he isn't honest.

He can take a win or try to parlay his war into a big win at a far greater cost. These costs can be very unpredictable in times of extreme turmoil. He understands that.

I think he has no choice but to go for the big win. If he doesn't, Ukraine will just rearm, rebuild, and try to recapture the lost ground. If they do so as a member state, they'll have overwhelming superiority in everything. The only way to prevent that scenario would be to eliminate Ukraine entirely.

 

[shockedcanadian]

I think he has no choice but to go for the big win. If he doesn't, Ukraine will just rearm, rebuild, and try to recapture the lost ground. If they do so as a member state, they'll have overwhelming superiority in everything. The only way to prevent that scenario would be to eliminate Ukraine entirely.

Well, if he intends to eliminate Ukraine entirely, the West is going to circle the wagons and he will be fighting this war for the entirety of Trumps term.

The biggest loser outside of the poor souls lost to the evils of war will be Chinas economy and President Xis reputation.

 

[ZestolPastilevsky]

Well, if he intends to eliminate Ukraine entirely, the West is going to circle the wagons and he will be fighting this war for the entirety of Trumps term.

The biggest loser outside of the poor souls lost to the evils of war will be Chinas economy and President Xis reputation.

We'll see.

 

[luiza]

Without constant replenishment of NATO troops fighting as mercenaries and working for private contractors , Ukraine has no army .
Out of any sort of air cover
Out of men
Out of weapons
Out of ammunition
50000 Russians wiping out the NATO incursion toward Kursk .
And here we are with yesterday's summary :-

The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on November 16 2024
Trump To Kick Out Zelensky?

Zelensky Panics As NATO Nation Dials Putin? Ukraine Fears ‘Other Calls’ Will Follow Scholz’s Move

Collective west plan to shuffle cards and remove Zelensky

Zelensky Gives Up? Putin's Fury, Trump's Victory Push Ukraine for Peace Talks to End War in 2025

WAR UPDATE: Russia Is EVERYWHERE! Key Advances Recorded On EIGHT Fronts This Week

Russian Military Capability Rapidly Expanding

Crazy Developments As Russian & Ukrainian Forces Step Up Military Clashes Across The Entire Front

Russia Cornered NATO in Ukraine! Ukrainian Soldiers Began To FLEE 'KURAKHOVO' En MASSE!

Massive New Russian Zaporizhzhia Offensive Starts l Multiple Russian Advances

Kupyansk Defenses Collapsed l RUSSIA'S MOST DANGEROUS OFFENSIVE YET Starts in Chernihiv

3 villages captured in Chernihiv


1/100 Russia
1million/1 The Midget Coke addict .

 

[shockedcanadian]

We'll see.

Hopefully we won't

 

[ZestolPastilevsky]

Hopefully we won't

Well I mean we'll get an outcome to this war eventually, one way or another.

 

[rightwinger]

Eh. This was is far from over. I expect it to run for another two or three years. While the Ukrainian front is starting to crack, it has yet to collapse. Despite predictions, they have not yet run out of manpower, and for the most part it seems that they still have the materiel needed to continue fighting. Despite daily victories on the front, Russia's gains actually don't amount to significant tracts of land. My theory is that this is because Russia invested very heavily into armored forces after WW2, but in this day and age, man portable anti-tank weapons are very dangerous and very common.

Russia still has not figured out how to respond to Drone Warfare