The US Has ZERO Chance Of Defending Taiwan, Naval Power In That Region Now In Jeopardy

[jotathought]

Not with 2 million troops they won't. They would attack Taiwan with a fraction of a fraction of that, as they don't have the landing craft, they don't have the paratroopers.

China has 400K in their air force with 3000 active planes .. obviously this spans different aircraft type, but .. you're too naive if you believe China won't land on Taiwan. Do you have top secret access about their landing craft that the rest of us don't know?

 

[The Duke]

Not with 2 million troops they won't. They would attack Taiwan with a fraction of a fraction of that, as they don't have the landing craft, they don't have the paratroopers.

They've got 40,000 paratroopers. Tops. And only a fraction of that would successfully land. They've got a grand total of 1 amphibious assault ship; the Hainan.

You're vastly overwestimating CHina's capacity to put boots on the ground. Even as far as 100 miles away.

What's the population of Taiwan and do they have more than 100 type 99 gimmicks and ammo?

They have their own military?

Yes, they do; And China isn't getting in there like that.

They've already been going the other way for a couple years.

Had a small goon squad about to kill this guy last I knew.

For reporting about Covid.

 

[Skylar]

China has 400K in their air force with 3000 active planes .. obviously this spans different aircraft type, but .. you're too naive if you believe China won't land on Taiwan. Do you have top secret access about their landing craft that the rest of us don't know?

The most numerous plane in the Chinese airforce is the J-10. A plane that first rolled off the production line in 1955.

The second most numerous is the J-7.....which came into service in 1959.

Third, the J-11. A decent plane, if a bit lackluster for 1998. Its no match for anything from the F-16 up. And the F-16 is a plane that's coming up on 50 years old.

The J-16, the next most common plane still can't match our F-16.

It isn't until you get to J-20 that you FINALLY have a plane that (at least on paper) could match some of our older jets. And they've got maybe 200.

China doesn't have that many good planes. And it has very little experience fighting wars with them.

And there's zero evidence they have any significant number of amphibious landing craft. Oh, you can IMAGINE they do to buttress your argument. But you can't connect that wistful thinking to reality with any evidence.

They just started their FIRST sea trials for their FIRST amphibious assault craft in 2021.

 

[Mac-7]

The most numerous plane in the Chinese airforce is the J-10. A plane that first rolled off the production line in 1955.

The second most numerous is the J-7.....which came into service in 1959.

Third, the J-11. A decent plane, if a bit lackluster for 1998. Its no match for anything from the F-16 up. And the F-16 is a plane that's coming up on 50 years old.

The J-16, the next most common plane still can't match our F-16.

It isn't until you get to J-20 that you FINALLY have a plane that (at least on paper) could match some of our older jets. And they've got maybe 200.

The China doesn't have that many good planes. And it has very little experience fighting wars with them.

And there's zero evidence they have any significant number of amphibious landing craft. Oh, you can IMAGINE they do to buttress your argument. But you can't connect that wistful thinking to reality with any evidence.

They just started their FIRST sea trials for their FIRST amphibious assault craft in March of this year.

What china has in abundance is a total disregard for the lives of its people - both civilian and military

 

[Skylar]

What china has in abundance is a total disregard for the lives of its people - both civilian and military

Indeed. As demonstrated by the bulk of its airforce being planes that first rolled off the line in the Eisenhower administration.

Nor will total disregard get you 100 mile across the ocean when you've got ONE amphibious assault ship.

It doesn't matter how many troops they have in China. It matters how many they can get to Taiwan. The answer is not much.

 

[Mac-7]

Indeed. As demonstrated by the bulk of its airforce being planes that first rolled off the line in the Eisenhower administration.

Nor will total disregard get you 100 mile across the ocean when you've got ONE amphibious assault ship.

It doesn't matter how many troops they have in China. It matters how many they can get to Taiwan. The answer is not much.

I dont know how an invasion would play out

But it would be costly for everyone concerned

Hopefully Xi does not want to risk internal threats from within should chins be defeated and lose face

 

[Skylar]

I dont know how an invasion would play out

But it would be costly for everyone concerned

I agree. We're only talking about the direct military implications. The economic ones would be catastrophic for China. The US is, by far, their number one market.

Their economy is already dealing with a massive population bomb and an existentially severe real estate crisis. Being cut off from US markets would cause wide spread economic devastation.

I'm not saying china COULD never invade. I'm saying with what they have now, they CAN not invade. Not plausible. Not with any serious hope of winning.

They'd have to lean to their western border, which means India. Which means territorial consessions and ceding dominance in south asia to the more populous India. And less than 1/7th the size of the US market.

3 trillion to 23 trillion.

 

[easyt65]

F-16s are pretty fast, brah.

They can't go 5 times the speed of sound, and it's hard for a carrier to dodge a missile going that fast.

 

[Mac-7]

I agree. We're only talking about the direct military implications. The economic ones would be catastrophic for China. The US is, by far, their number one market.

Their economy is already dealing with a massive population bomb and an existentially severe real estate crisis. Being cut off from US markets would cause wide spread economic devastation.

I'm not saying china COULD never invade. I'm saying with what they have now, they CAN not invade. Not plausible. Not with any serious hope of winning.

They'd have to lean to their western border, which means India. Which means territorial consessions and ceding dominance in south asia to the more populous India. And less than 1/7th the size of the US market.

3 trillion to 23 trillion.

I put nothing past any communist dictator

We in the west tend to put chicoms on a much higher pedestal of respect that they dont deserve

They are far less impressive than many of us think we are

For instance, credit for the “china economic miracle” does not belong in Beijing but rather in the boardrooms of western companies who taught the chinese how to make products that American and Euro consumers want to buy