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- Feb 16, 2016
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The Missile Lesson the West Can’t Ignore
A new form of warfare is emerging—one where quantity and cost may matter as much as technological sophistication.
The Missile Lesson the West Can’t Ignore
A new form of warfare is emerging—one where quantity and cost may matter as much as technological sophistication.
For decades, Western military doctrine has rested on a comforting assumption: technological superiority would guarantee dominance on the battlefield. Advanced missile defenses, integrated sensor networks, and sophisticated command systems were supposed to create something close to an impenetrable shield over the world’s most developed nations.
The ongoing confrontation between Israel and Iran is beginning to challenge that assumption.
Israel fields one of the most advanced missile defense architectures ever constructed. Its layered system — including Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and the Arrow interceptors — was designed to counter a wide spectrum of threats, from short-range rockets to long-range ballistic missiles.
So far, those systems have performed remarkably well. The vast majority of incoming projectiles are intercepted.
But recent events are revealing a strategic vulnerability that military planners have long understood in theory: even the most advanced defensive systems can be strained by attacks designed not for precision, but for volume.
In other words, the future of warfare may not be decided only by who has the most advanced technology — but by who can most effectively exploit the economics of attack versus defense.
The weapons used to attack them are often dramatically cheaper.
That asymmetry matters. An adversary that launches large numbers of missiles or drones simultaneously can force defenders to expend vast resources simply to maintain protection.
Even if interception rates remain extremely high, the defender is gradually forced into a costly defensive posture.
Recent developments illustrate this logic with unusual clarity. Since the latest phase of escalation began, Iran has reportedly launched hundreds of ballistic missiles and more than five hundred drones toward Israeli territory.
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Iran’s asymmetric doctrine
Iran’s military strategy has long been built around this principle.
Tehran understands that it cannot match the United States or Israel in conventional military technology. Instead, it has spent decades investing in a vast arsenal of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones.
The objective is not technological parity.
It is strategic asymmetry.
The regional network
A key component of this strategy is the network of allied groups often referred to by analysts as the “Axis of Resistance.”
The most powerful of these is Hezbollah in Lebanon, which possesses a vast arsenal of rockets and missiles capable of striking deep into Israeli territory.
Other groups — including Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza, Shiite militias in Iraq, and the Houthi movement in Yemen — form a loose but strategically significant ecosystem of armed actors aligned with Iranian interests.
A warning for Western strategy
For the United States and its allies, the lessons may extend far beyond the Middle East.
For the past two decades, Western militaries have largely fought adversaries that were technologically inferior — insurgent groups, irregular militias, and terrorist organizations. In those conflicts, Western technological superiority was overwhelming.
Confrontations with state actors like Iran present a very different challenge.
Adversaries are learning how to design military strategies that bypass technological dominance rather than confronting it directly.
~Snip~
The future of missile defense
None of this means that Israel’s defenses are failing. On the contrary, they remain among the most effective ever deployed.
But the strategic environment is evolving.
To address the economic imbalance between offense and defense, Israel and its partners are accelerating the development of new technologies — including directed-energy weapons and next-generation interceptors such as the Arrow-4 system.
The hope is that these systems will make missile defense both more efficient and more economically sustainable.
Whether they succeed remains to be seen.
What is already clear, however, is that the confrontation between Israel and Iran is becoming something more than a regional security crisis.
It is increasingly a preview of how future wars may be fought and a reminder that technological superiority alone may no longer guarantee strategic dominance.
Commentary:
Militaries around the world continues to prepare to fight the last war.
War has become asymmetrical and militaries must be prepared to fight new wars efficiently.
The U.S. Dept. of War should have learned this lesson back in Vietnam.
It is estimated it costs 10-50 thousand dollars per year in equipment to keep a single U.S. solider in the field for a year. The enemy in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc. $75 for an AK-47 plus rations etc. maybe $1,000 per year. But they have the numbers and I doubt if they expend 1 million rounds for one kill as we do.
So, following the same logic. Iran sends a $5,000 drone and is shot down by a million-dollar missile. While our, U.S. and Israel’s economy is absorbing billions in war cost, they are absorbing a few million. Who do you think wins in the long run?
It appears that our military has recently begun to use high energy lasers (HEL), Microwave and Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) to bringdown drones.
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