James McPherson in Battle Cry of Freedom offers a summary of conditions prior to the Civil War that contributed to it and exacerbated tensions.( Even prior to Smith's prophecy, it would not have been difficult to foresee a war coming. McPherson notes that there were a number of expected dividing lines as the country grew in the period from 1800-1850 (rich/poor, Catholic/Protestant, rural/urban), but the "greatest danger to American survival" at this stage was the question of slavery. Why? Because slavery was associated with competing ideals that just happened to also have geographic associations.) The institution was so contrary to what he argued were desirable values that he predicted a conflict that would result in the destruction of slavery. And Mormons might consider that one reason why Joseph Smith and the Saints were driven out of their locales in Missouri, in 1838-9, was because they were suspected of being favorable to abolition of slavery. South Carolina had advocated the doctrine of "nullification," arguing that a state could nullify federal laws or taxes that they ruled to be unconstitutional. If there was federal resistance, then South Carolina said they could leave the Union. These were all facts that smith knew, do the math. Read this this is where he got his idea for his so called prophacy.any one could have predictedsomething close knowing all of this.