TheProgressivePatriot
Platinum Member
While there have been way to many threads about Trump in general, it's interesting to not that there have been few if any about his plan to deport millions of Latinos and the implications of that . So, here we go!
What is behind it? In part it is obvious pandering to a bigoted and xenophobic base who he promised this to? But what does it mean for the rest of us and for the country? For the economy? Aside from the moral and political implications of this move, there are indications that it is not in the best economic interest of the country either. So in order to try to answer the question of motive, it is useful to take a closer look at who will benefit and who will be hurt, and in what ways.
First, to be clear, we are talking about mostly Latino people, and most of them are from Mexico. Trump has made it clear that he is targeting Mexicans although they only make up 44 % of all undocumented immigrants . Why?
( The math: 59% of 75% -all Latino undocumented immigrents = 44% of all undocumented immigrents)
And there is clearly an element of cruelty to the order:
Source for all quotes from this point until otherwise noted:
Economic impact of illegal immigrants in the United States - Wikipedia
Why do they come?
So these are people who are waiting in the wings sort of speaking for a time when their labor is needed in the US. You might say that they serve the same purpose as long term unemployed people who are citizens and just getting by until the job market expands.
Then what is the economic impact?
As consumers, illegal immigrants buy goods and services, which stimulates economic growth, while paying taxes and receiving minimal benefits.[19] Studies indicate they are discriminated against and work with unfair wages and harsh conditions, particularly in certain states.[20]
The non partisan Congressional Budget Office looked at it
The Heritage Foundation, a conservative organization also weighed in with an attempt to spin the debate against immigrants:
But non of this is to say that they get a free ride:
Consumer demand
In addition:
That brings us to the question....what is the coast or negative impact of removing large numbers of undocumented immigrants
Other factors to consider:
Cost benefit analysis
On balance, it appears that the benefits outweigh the costs.
Here is another source that supports that view:
On February 21, 2017, a month after Trumps first full day in office, the administration unveiled a major and unprecedented crackdown on undocumented people in this country.
Donald Trump’s DHS Says Immigration Authorities Can Deport Pretty Much Any Undocumented Person
“The Department will no longer exempt classes or categories of removable aliens from potential enforcement,” an official memo says. Donald Trump's DHS Says Immigration Authorities Can Deport Pretty Much Any Undocumented Person | The Huffington Post
What is behind it? In part it is obvious pandering to a bigoted and xenophobic base who he promised this to? But what does it mean for the rest of us and for the country? For the economy? Aside from the moral and political implications of this move, there are indications that it is not in the best economic interest of the country either. So in order to try to answer the question of motive, it is useful to take a closer look at who will benefit and who will be hurt, and in what ways.
First, to be clear, we are talking about mostly Latino people, and most of them are from Mexico. Trump has made it clear that he is targeting Mexicans although they only make up 44 % of all undocumented immigrants . Why?
About three-quarters (75%) of the nation's unauthorized immigrants are Latino. The majority of illegal immigrants (59%) are from Mexico. Significant regional sources of unauthorized immigrants include Asia (11%), Central America (11%), South America (7%), the Caribbean (4%) and the Middle East (less than 2%). Illegal immigrants constitute 4% of the nation's population. Approximately two-thirds have been in the U.S. for 10 years or fewer.[12]
( The math: 59% of 75% -all Latino undocumented immigrents = 44% of all undocumented immigrents)
And there is clearly an element of cruelty to the order:
The DHS memo "sends a message of fear through many of America's immigrant communities — not just the estimated 11.1 million unauthorized immigrants, but also their spouses, children, and other relatives living legally in the United States."
The Post concedes "deterrence is a fair goal," but only "if achieved by humane means."
"In this case, the administration's policies will break up families and harm people leading peaceable lives," the editors conclude. WashPost: 'Cruelty' in Trump Deportation Plan
Source for all quotes from this point until otherwise noted:
Economic impact of illegal immigrants in the United States - Wikipedia
Why do they come?
Ernesto Zedillo, former President of Mexico and current Director of the Yale Center for the Study of Globalization, argues that the US economy has a crucial need for migrant workers, and that the current debate must acknowledge this rather than just focus on enforcement.[13] Peter Andreas, Professor of Political Science and International Studies at Brown University, asserts that illegal immigration is spurred on by periods of high demand for labor.[14]
According to analyses by Zedillo and Andreas, greater demand for low-wage labor leads to higher illegal immigration. The numbers seem to support this analysis. Standard & Poor's estimated in April 2006 that, at that time, the U.S. was home to 11 million illegal immigrants. The Pew Hispanic Center estimated that the population of illegal immigrants grew from 1990 to a high of 11.9 million in 2006 plus another 1.1 million persons who are believed to be undercounted in the published estimates, and then dropped during the following recession
So these are people who are waiting in the wings sort of speaking for a time when their labor is needed in the US. You might say that they serve the same purpose as long term unemployed people who are citizens and just getting by until the job market expands.
Then what is the economic impact?
As consumers, illegal immigrants buy goods and services, which stimulates economic growth, while paying taxes and receiving minimal benefits.[19] Studies indicate they are discriminated against and work with unfair wages and harsh conditions, particularly in certain states.[20]
The non partisan Congressional Budget Office looked at it
CBO study
During 2007, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office reviewed 29 reports published over 15 years on the impact of unauthorized immigrants on the budgets of state and local governments. While cautioning that the reports are not a suitable basis for developing an aggregate national effect across all states, they concluded that:[20]
State and local governments incur costs for providing services to unauthorized immigrants and have limited options for avoiding or minimizing those costs;
The amount that state and local governments spend on services for unauthorized immigrants represents a small percentage of the total amount spent by those governments to provide such services to residents in their jurisdictions;
The tax revenues that unauthorized immigrants generate for state and local governments do not offset the total cost of services provided to them, the impact is modest, and most do not qualify for them;
Federal aid programs offer resources to state and local governments that provide services to unauthorized immigrants, but those funds do not fully cover the costs of necessities.
But Ernesto Zedillo, former President of Mexico and current Director of the Yale Center for the Study of Globalization, who we quoted above asserts that illegal immigrants are only a drain on
government services when they are incapable of paying taxes; and that this incapacity is the result of restrictive federal policies that require proof of citizenship.
The Heritage Foundation, a conservative organization also weighed in with an attempt to spin the debate against immigrants:
Heritage Foundation Study
In 2013, think tank The Heritage Foundation released a study concluding that as of 2010, the average unlawful immigrant household has a net deficit (benefits received minus taxes paid) of $14,387 per household.[21] Many legislators, researchers and policy professionals from both sides of the immigration debate challenged the methodology of the 2013 Heritage Foundation study and its conclusions,[22]HYPERLINK \l "[23] indicating that the Heritage Foundation's estimated deficit figure is grossly inflated and such a deficit may not even exist. [24]
Economic impact of illegal immigrants in the United States - Wikipedia
But non of this is to say that they get a free ride:
Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy Study
The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy released a report in February 2016, stating that 11 million illegal immigrants in the United States are paying annually an estimated amount of $11.64 billion in state and local taxes, "on average an estimated 8 percent of their incomes."[25]
And despite the aforementioned negative impacts, there is a significant upside:
Consumer demand
Economic activity produced by illegal immigrant spending employs about 5% of the total US workforce. Illegal immigrants occupy over 3 million dwellings, or just under 4% of the total number of homes in the US. UCLA research indicates immigrants produce $150 billion of economic activity equivalent to spending stimulus every year. The advantages of illegal migration tend mostly to be on the side of the employer. An employer will benefit from the illegal status of a migrant who is desperate for work and therefore prepared to accept poor pay, usually below local norms. Hiring an illegal worker also brings the employer the advantage of paying less in the way of welfare contributions and other non-wage costs.[26]
Nearly every dollar earned by illegal immigrants is spent immediately, and the average wage for US citizens is $10.25/hour with an average of 34 hours per week. This means that approximately 8 million US jobs are dependent upon economic activity produced by illegal immigrant activities within the US.[27]HYPERLINK \l "[28]HYPERLINK \l "[29]
In addition:
Research reviewed by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office indicates that between 50 percent and 75 percent of unauthorized immigrants pay federal, state, and local taxes.[20] Illegal immigrants are estimated to pay in about $7 billion per year into Social Security.[30] In addition, they spend millions of dollars per year, which supports the US economy and helps to create new jobs.
Illegal immigrants pay social security payroll taxes but are not eligible for benefits. During 2006, Standard & Poor's analysts wrote: "Each year, for example, the U.S. Social Security Administration maintains roughly $6 billion to $7 billion of Social Security contributions in an "earnings suspense file"—an account for W-2 tax forms that cannot be matched to the correct Social Security number. The vast majority of these numbers are attributable to illegal workers who will never claim their benefits.
That brings us to the question....what is the coast or negative impact of removing large numbers of undocumented immigrants
NPR reported in March 2006 that when the wages of lower-skilled workers go down, the rest of America benefits by paying lower prices for things like restaurant meals, agricultural produce and construction. The economic impact of illegal immigration is far smaller than other trends in the economy, such as the increasing use of automation in manufacturing or the growth in global trade. Those two factors have a much bigger impact on wages, prices and the health of the U.S. economy. But economists generally believe that when averaged over the whole economy, the effect is a small net positive. Harvard's George Borjas says the average American's wealth is increased by less than 1 percent because of illegal immigration.[36]
Dr. David Jaeger from Center for American Progress estimated that if all illegal workers were removed from the workforce, a number of industries would face substantial shortages of workers, and Americans would have to be induced into the labor pool or provided incentives to take jobs far below their current education and skill levels.[37\l "For this phenomenon to occur to a meaningful extent, substantial wage escalation would likely be necessary, thus eroding competitiveness in global markets
Other factors to consider:
National Public Radio (NPR) reported in March 2006 that: "...overall, illegal immigrants don't have a big impact on U.S. wage rates. The most respected recent studies show that most Americans would notice little difference in their paychecks if illegal immigrants suddenly disappeared from the United States.
Estimates indicate that about 4% of the school-age population is made up of children who are illegal immigrants.[43] Many require remedial assistance in language skills, which increases costs to the public schools. During April 2006, Standard & Poor's analysts wrote: "Local school districts are estimated to educate 1.8 million illegal children. At an average annual cost of $7,500 (averages vary by jurisdiction) per student, the cost of providing education to these children is about $11.2 billion."
Jessica M. Vaughan, Director of Policy Studies at Center for Immigration Studies reported in March 2012 that the Obama administration is trying to move away from using detention centers that are currently housing thousands of illegal immigrants each day. These facilities are very costly.
With Trump, those costs will only go up
Reuters reported that illegal immigrants, as well as legal immigrants in the country less than five years, generally are not eligible for Medicaid. However, they can get Medicaid coverage for health emergencies if they are in a category of people otherwise eligible, such as children, pregnant women, families with dependent children, elderly or disabled individuals, and meet other requirements. The cost of this emergency care was less than 1% of Medicaid costs in North Carolina from 2001–2004 and the majority was for childbirth and related complications.[49] USA Today reported that "Illegal immigrants can get emergency care through Medicaid, the federal-state program for the poor and people with disabilities. But they can't get non-emergency care unless they pay. They are ineligible for most other public benefits."[5
Potential economic impact of amnesty: Amnesty refers to granting illegal immigrants additional rights, which grants access to more government services while requiring higher taxes. The Heritage Foundation reported in 2013: "If enacted, amnesty would be implemented in phases. During the first or interim phase (which is likely to last 13 years), unlawful immigrants would be given lawful status but would be denied access to means-tested welfare and Obamacare. Most analysts assume that roughly half of unlawful immigrants work “off the books” and therefore do not pay income or FICA taxes. During the interim phase, these “off the books” workers would have a strong incentive to move to “on the books” employment. In addition, their wages would likely go up as they sought jobs in a more open environment
Cost benefit analysis
Editorialist Robert Samuelson points out that poor immigrants strain public services such as local schools and health care. He points out that "from 2000 to 2006, 41 percent of the increase in people without health insurance occurred among Hispanics", although he makes clear that these facts are true of legal as well as illegal immigrants.[61]
Aviva Chomsky, a professor at Salem State College, states that "Early studies in California and in the Southwest and in the Southeast...have come to the same conclusions. Immigrants, legal and illegal, are more likely to pay taxes than they are to use public services.
National Public Radio (NPR) wrote in 2006: "Supporters of a crackdown argue that the U.S. economy would benefit if illegal immigrants were to leave, because U.S. employers would be forced to raise wages to attract American workers. Critics of this approach say the loss of illegal immigrants would stall the U.S. economy, saying illegal workers do many jobs few native-born Americans will do."[36]
On balance, it appears that the benefits outweigh the costs.
Here is another source that supports that view:
In this Council Special Report, Professor Gordon H. Hanson of the University of California, San Diego approaches immigration through the lens of economics. The results are surprising. By focusing on the economic costs and benefits of legal and illegal immigration, Professor Hanson concludes that stemming illegal immigration would likely lead to a net drain on the U.S. economy—a finding that calls into question many of the proposals to increase funding for border protection. The Economic Logic of Illegal Immigration
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