The Reality of Deportaions

[TheProgressivePatriot]

While there have been way to many threads about Trump in general, it's interesting to not that there have been few if any about his plan to deport millions of Latinos and the implications of that . So, here we go!

On February 21, 2017, a month after Trumps first full day in office, the administration unveiled a major and unprecedented crackdown on undocumented people in this country.

Donald Trump’s DHS Says Immigration Authorities Can Deport Pretty Much Any Undocumented Person

“The Department will no longer exempt classes or categories of removable aliens from potential enforcement,” an official memo says. Donald Trump's DHS Says Immigration Authorities Can Deport Pretty Much Any Undocumented Person | The Huffington Post

What is behind it? In part it is obvious pandering to a bigoted and xenophobic base who he promised this to? But what does it mean for the rest of us and for the country? For the economy? Aside from the moral and political implications of this move, there are indications that it is not in the best economic interest of the country either. So in order to try to answer the question of motive, it is useful to take a closer look at who will benefit and who will be hurt, and in what ways.

First, to be clear, we are talking about mostly Latino people, and most of them are from Mexico. Trump has made it clear that he is targeting Mexicans although they only make up 44 % of all undocumented immigrants . Why?

About three-quarters (75%) of the nation's unauthorized immigrants are Latino. The majority of illegal immigrants (59%) are from Mexico. Significant regional sources of unauthorized immigrants include Asia (11%), Central America (11%), South America (7%), the Caribbean (4%) and the Middle East (less than 2%). Illegal immigrants constitute 4% of the nation's population. Approximately two-thirds have been in the U.S. for 10 years or fewer.[12]

( The math: 59% of 75% -all Latino undocumented immigrents = 44% of all undocumented immigrents)

And there is clearly an element of cruelty to the order:

The DHS memo "sends a message of fear through many of America's immigrant communities — not just the estimated 11.1 million unauthorized immigrants, but also their spouses, children, and other relatives living legally in the United States."

The Post concedes "deterrence is a fair goal," but only "if achieved by humane means."
"In this case, the administration's policies will break up families and harm people leading peaceable lives," the editors conclude. WashPost: 'Cruelty' in Trump Deportation Plan

Source for all quotes from this point until otherwise noted:

Economic impact of illegal immigrants in the United States - Wikipedia
Why do they come?

Ernesto Zedillo, former President of Mexico and current Director of the Yale Center for the Study of Globalization, argues that the US economy has a crucial need for migrant workers, and that the current debate must acknowledge this rather than just focus on enforcement.[13] Peter Andreas, Professor of Political Science and International Studies at Brown University, asserts that illegal immigration is spurred on by periods of high demand for labor.[14]

According to analyses by Zedillo and Andreas, greater demand for low-wage labor leads to higher illegal immigration. The numbers seem to support this analysis. Standard & Poor's estimated in April 2006 that, at that time, the U.S. was home to 11 million illegal immigrants. The Pew Hispanic Center estimated that the population of illegal immigrants grew from 1990 to a high of 11.9 million in 2006 plus another 1.1 million persons who are believed to be undercounted in the published estimates, and then dropped during the following recession

So these are people who are waiting in the wings sort of speaking for a time when their labor is needed in the US. You might say that they serve the same purpose as long term unemployed people who are citizens and just getting by until the job market expands.


Then what is the economic impact?

As consumers, illegal immigrants buy goods and services, which stimulates economic growth, while paying taxes and receiving minimal benefits.[19] Studies indicate they are discriminated against and work with unfair wages and harsh conditions, particularly in certain states.[20]

The non partisan Congressional Budget Office looked at it

CBO study

During 2007, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office reviewed 29 reports published over 15 years on the impact of unauthorized immigrants on the budgets of state and local governments. While cautioning that the reports are not a suitable basis for developing an aggregate national effect across all states, they concluded that:[20]

• 
  State and local governments incur costs for providing services to unauthorized immigrants and have limited options for avoiding or minimizing those costs;
• 
  The amount that state and local governments spend on services for unauthorized immigrants represents a small percentage of the total amount spent by those governments to provide such services to residents in their jurisdictions;
• 
  The tax revenues that unauthorized immigrants generate for state and local governments do not offset the total cost of services provided to them, the impact is modest, and most do not qualify for them;
• 
  Federal aid programs offer resources to state and local governments that provide services to unauthorized immigrants, but those funds do not fully cover the costs of necessities.

But Ernesto Zedillo, former President of Mexico and current Director of the Yale Center for the Study of Globalization, who we quoted above asserts that illegal immigrants are only a drain on
government services when they are incapable of paying taxes; and that this incapacity is the result of restrictive federal policies that require proof of citizenship.

The Heritage Foundation, a conservative organization also weighed in with an attempt to spin the debate against immigrants:

Heritage Foundation Study

In 2013, think tank The Heritage Foundation released a study concluding that as of 2010, the average unlawful immigrant household has a net deficit (benefits received minus taxes paid) of $14,387 per household.[21] Many legislators, researchers and policy professionals from both sides of the immigration debate challenged the methodology of the 2013 Heritage Foundation study and its conclusions,[22]HYPERLINK \l "[23] indicating that the Heritage Foundation's estimated deficit figure is grossly inflated and such a deficit may not even exist. [24]

Economic impact of illegal immigrants in the United States - Wikipedia

But non of this is to say that they get a free ride:

Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy Study

The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy released a report in February 2016, stating that 11 million illegal immigrants in the United States are paying annually an estimated amount of $11.64 billion in state and local taxes, "on average an estimated 8 percent of their incomes."[25]
And despite the aforementioned negative impacts, there is a significant upside:

Consumer demand

Economic activity produced by illegal immigrant spending employs about 5% of the total US workforce. Illegal immigrants occupy over 3 million dwellings, or just under 4% of the total number of homes in the US. UCLA research indicates immigrants produce $150 billion of economic activity equivalent to spending stimulus every year. The advantages of illegal migration tend mostly to be on the side of the employer. An employer will benefit from the illegal status of a migrant who is desperate for work and therefore prepared to accept poor pay, usually below local norms. Hiring an illegal worker also brings the employer the advantage of paying less in the way of welfare contributions and other non-wage costs.[26]

Nearly every dollar earned by illegal immigrants is spent immediately, and the average wage for US citizens is $10.25/hour with an average of 34 hours per week. This means that approximately 8 million US jobs are dependent upon economic activity produced by illegal immigrant activities within the US.[27]HYPERLINK \l "[28]HYPERLINK \l "[29]

In addition:

Research reviewed by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office indicates that between 50 percent and 75 percent of unauthorized immigrants pay federal, state, and local taxes.[20] Illegal immigrants are estimated to pay in about $7 billion per year into Social Security.[30] In addition, they spend millions of dollars per year, which supports the US economy and helps to create new jobs.

Illegal immigrants pay social security payroll taxes but are not eligible for benefits. During 2006, Standard & Poor's analysts wrote: "Each year, for example, the U.S. Social Security Administration maintains roughly $6 billion to $7 billion of Social Security contributions in an "earnings suspense file"—an account for W-2 tax forms that cannot be matched to the correct Social Security number. The vast majority of these numbers are attributable to illegal workers who will never claim their benefits.

That brings us to the question....what is the coast or negative impact of removing large numbers of undocumented immigrants

NPR reported in March 2006 that when the wages of lower-skilled workers go down, the rest of America benefits by paying lower prices for things like restaurant meals, agricultural produce and construction. The economic impact of illegal immigration is far smaller than other trends in the economy, such as the increasing use of automation in manufacturing or the growth in global trade. Those two factors have a much bigger impact on wages, prices and the health of the U.S. economy. But economists generally believe that when averaged over the whole economy, the effect is a small net positive. Harvard's George Borjas says the average American's wealth is increased by less than 1 percent because of illegal immigration.[36]

Dr. David Jaeger from Center for American Progress estimated that if all illegal workers were removed from the workforce, a number of industries would face substantial shortages of workers, and Americans would have to be induced into the labor pool or provided incentives to take jobs far below their current education and skill levels.[37\l "For this phenomenon to occur to a meaningful extent, substantial wage escalation would likely be necessary, thus eroding competitiveness in global markets

Other factors to consider:

National Public Radio (NPR) reported in March 2006 that: "...overall, illegal immigrants don't have a big impact on U.S. wage rates. The most respected recent studies show that most Americans would notice little difference in their paychecks if illegal immigrants suddenly disappeared from the United States.

Estimates indicate that about 4% of the school-age population is made up of children who are illegal immigrants.[43] Many require remedial assistance in language skills, which increases costs to the public schools. During April 2006, Standard & Poor's analysts wrote: "Local school districts are estimated to educate 1.8 million illegal children. At an average annual cost of $7,500 (averages vary by jurisdiction) per student, the cost of providing education to these children is about $11.2 billion."

Jessica M. Vaughan, Director of Policy Studies at Center for Immigration Studies reported in March 2012 that the Obama administration is trying to move away from using detention centers that are currently housing thousands of illegal immigrants each day. These facilities are very costly.
With Trump, those costs will only go up

Reuters reported that illegal immigrants, as well as legal immigrants in the country less than five years, generally are not eligible for Medicaid. However, they can get Medicaid coverage for health emergencies if they are in a category of people otherwise eligible, such as children, pregnant women, families with dependent children, elderly or disabled individuals, and meet other requirements. The cost of this emergency care was less than 1% of Medicaid costs in North Carolina from 2001–2004 and the majority was for childbirth and related complications.[49] USA Today reported that "Illegal immigrants can get emergency care through Medicaid, the federal-state program for the poor and people with disabilities. But they can't get non-emergency care unless they pay. They are ineligible for most other public benefits."[5

Potential economic impact of amnesty: Amnesty refers to granting illegal immigrants additional rights, which grants access to more government services while requiring higher taxes. The Heritage Foundation reported in 2013: "If enacted, amnesty would be implemented in phases. During the first or interim phase (which is likely to last 13 years), unlawful immigrants would be given lawful status but would be denied access to means-tested welfare and Obamacare. Most analysts assume that roughly half of unlawful immigrants work “off the books” and therefore do not pay income or FICA taxes. During the interim phase, these “off the books” workers would have a strong incentive to move to “on the books” employment. In addition, their wages would likely go up as they sought jobs in a more open environment

Cost benefit analysis

Editorialist Robert Samuelson points out that poor immigrants strain public services such as local schools and health care. He points out that "from 2000 to 2006, 41 percent of the increase in people without health insurance occurred among Hispanics", although he makes clear that these facts are true of legal as well as illegal immigrants.[61]

Aviva Chomsky, a professor at Salem State College, states that "Early studies in California and in the Southwest and in the Southeast...have come to the same conclusions. Immigrants, legal and illegal, are more likely to pay taxes than they are to use public services.
National Public Radio (NPR) wrote in 2006: "Supporters of a crackdown argue that the U.S. economy would benefit if illegal immigrants were to leave, because U.S. employers would be forced to raise wages to attract American workers. Critics of this approach say the loss of illegal immigrants would stall the U.S. economy, saying illegal workers do many jobs few native-born Americans will do."[36]

On balance, it appears that the benefits outweigh the costs.

Here is another source that supports that view:

In this Council Special Report, Professor Gordon H. Hanson of the University of California, San Diego approaches immigration through the lens of economics. The results are surprising. By focusing on the economic costs and benefits of legal and illegal immigration, Professor Hanson concludes that stemming illegal immigration would likely lead to a net drain on the U.S. economy—a finding that calls into question many of the proposals to increase funding for border protection. The Economic Logic of Illegal Immigration

 

[DigitalDrifter]

There is NO excuse for sneaking across our borders and skirting our immigration laws.

Anyone who is okay with this form of immigration is a bad American, and a traitor to our nations sovereignty

 

[EvilCat Breath]

Much of what illegals earn isn't spent here and does not benefit our economy. They send the money home in remittances. After oil, remittances is Mexico 's second most profitable source of income.

Far from being innocent, stealing the identity of another inflicts serious harm on the victims. Their credit is ruined. Sometimes they end up owing thousands of dollars. The victim might find that htireis or her retirement benefits have been stolen. Identity theft is not a victimless crime.

Pack them up and send them back.

 

[TheProgressivePatriot]

There is NO excuse for sneaking across our borders and skirting our immigration laws.

Anyone who is okay with this form of immigration is a bad American, and a traitor to our nations sovereignty

Is that supposed to be an actual response to the issues that I raised?

 

[SassyIrishLass]

Don't sneak across the border and you won't get deported.

Simple

 

[CarlinAnnArbor]

They forget that our president is ENFORCING the immigration laws put together by Democrat presidents and Democrat Congress who have been in power for most of the last century.

This shows how far current Demonrats have moved left (anti-American)

 

[EvilCat Breath]

The reality of deportations is that the only circumstances under consideration are those affecting the illegal. How can we help them, make things better or easier for them. Illegals count, Americans not so much. Fuck those who are the victims of theft, the dead like Kate Steinley, Jamile Shaw, the Bologna family and Brian Terry should be grateful that they were killed by a wonderful, sanctified, guest. Why are their survivors bellyaching? Their loved ones died for the glory of breaking our laws.

 

[CarlinAnnArbor]

Is that supposed to be an actual response to the issues that I raised

We get it. You don't believe in borders or laws.

We're done with that.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

As consumers, illegal immigrants buy goods and services, which stimulates economic growth, while paying taxes and receiving minimal benefits.

Here in Chicago, we spend about $13,500 per year for every illegal alien student in our public schools.
How much in taxes do the parents pay toward that tab?

 

[deannalw]

Unprecedented my patoot.
How many did your boybama deport?

 

[basquebromance]

Know why Dems won't stop crying over losing the election and trump's policies? They never got a Participation Trophy! Let's all chip in to buy them one and end this!

 

[Admiral Rockwell Tory]

There is NO excuse for sneaking across our borders and skirting our immigration laws.

Anyone who is okay with this form of immigration is a bad American, and a traitor to our nations sovereignty

Is that supposed to be an actual response to the issues that I raised?

How many illegals do you have living with you?

 

[Vandalshandle]

There is NO excuse for sneaking across our borders and skirting our immigration laws.

Anyone who is okay with this form of immigration is a bad American, and a traitor to our nations sovereignty

Is that supposed to be an actual response to the issues that I raised?

They don't need a reason to hate them, Prog. Trump told them to. That's enough. Forget about the economic harm that will be done with all this. You have to remember that people insured under ACA also voted for Trump. Logic is not their forte. They go for the emotional answers.

 

[TheProgressivePatriot]

There is NO excuse for sneaking across our borders and skirting our immigration laws.

Anyone who is okay with this form of immigration is a bad American, and a traitor to our nations sovereignty

Is that supposed to be an actual response to the issues that I raised?

How many illegals do you have living with you?

One cat without a license


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[TheProgressivePatriot]

Much of what illegals earn isn't spent here and does not benefit our economy. They send the money home in remittances. After oil, remittances is Mexico 's second most profitable source of income.

Far from being innocent, stealing the identity of another inflicts serious harm on the victims. Their credit is ruined. Sometimes they end up owing thousands of dollars. The victim might find that htireis or her retirement benefits have been stolen. Identity theft is not a victimless crime.

Pack them up and send them back.

True to form, you are stating an opinion as fact, and for some reason that is beyond me, seem to think that you need not bother to provide any documentation. That is an appeal to ignorance fallacy but I would not expect more from you.

You have zero credibility. Any one who would claim that same sex marriage leads to cannibalism and that many gay men are in fact cannibals is not to be taken seriously. You did say those things and more!

 

[TheProgressivePatriot]

As consumers, illegal immigrants buy goods and services, which stimulates economic growth, while paying taxes and receiving minimal benefits.

Here in Chicago, we spend about $13,500 per year for every illegal alien student in our public schools.
How much in taxes do the parents pay toward that tab?

The OP acknowledged that the undocumented may have a negative impact on the cost of education. However, if you read it in it's entirety with the comprehension of a first grader, you would know that is only one small aspect of the larger picture. On balance, immigrants are responsible for a net gain to the overall economic picture and are not a drain on local governments. You either are wearing blinders or are being deliberately dishonest.

 

[CarlinAnnArbor]

You lie.

The Fiscal Burden of Illegal Immigration on United States Taxpayers (2013)

But then, your opinion no longer counts.
We're here to clean up the mess after 16 years of Obama/Bush and their flood of illegals.

 

[EvilCat Breath]

Much of what illegals earn isn't spent here and does not benefit our economy. They send the money home in remittances. After oil, remittances is Mexico 's second most profitable source of income.

Far from being innocent, stealing the identity of another inflicts serious harm on the victims. Their credit is ruined. Sometimes they end up owing thousands of dollars. The victim might find that htireis or her retirement benefits have been stolen. Identity theft is not a victimless crime.

Pack them up and send them back.

True to form, you are stating an opinion as fact, and for some reason that is beyond me, seem to think that you need not bother to provide any documentation. That is an appeal to ignorance fallacy but I would not expect more from you.

You have zero credibility. Any one who would claim that same sex marriage leads to cannibalism and that many gay men are in fact cannibals is not to be taken seriously. You did say those things and more!

Same sex marriage does not lead to cannibalism. There are gay men who are cannibals. Does Jeffrey Dahmer ring a bell?

If you are trying to suggest that there are no victims of identity theft you need help beyond the capacity of a message board to provide.

 

[TheProgressivePatriot]

Much of what illegals earn isn't spent here and does not benefit our economy. They send the money home in remittances. After oil, remittances is Mexico 's second most profitable source of income.

Far from being innocent, stealing the identity of another inflicts serious harm on the victims. Their credit is ruined. Sometimes they end up owing thousands of dollars. The victim might find that htireis or her retirement benefits have been stolen. Identity theft is not a victimless crime.

Pack them up and send them back.

True to form, you are stating an opinion as fact, and for some reason that is beyond me, seem to think that you need not bother to provide any documentation. That is an appeal to ignorance fallacy but I would not expect more from you.

You have zero credibility. Any one who would claim that same sex marriage leads to cannibalism and that many gay men are in fact cannibals is not to be taken seriously. You did say those things and more!

Same sex marriage does not lead to cannibalism. There are gay men who are cannibals. Does Jeffrey Dahmer ring a bell?

If you are trying to suggest that there are no victims of identity theft you need help beyond the capacity of a message board to provide.

Thank you for again demonstrating that you have nothing meaningful, factual or honest to contribute to a discussion of the economics of immigration. Identity theft WTF!!!

 

[Pop23]

Don't sneak across the border and you won't get deported.

Simple

Simple, but the left can't even comprehend simple comcepts