The GOP has drawn even with the Democrats with eight months to go until the midterm elections.

[schmidlap]

/——-/ Either you don’t understand the methodology or reason of these cheap, fast polls or you’re deliberately ignoring the facts I posted. From one of those polls “Interviews for this survey were conducted between March 19 through March 23, 2026, with adults
aged 18 and over representing the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Panel members were randomly drawn from AmeriSpeak, and 1,150 completed the survey—1,100 via the web and 50 by telephone.

They don’t tell us how many democrats republicans or independents were polled and their breakdown. Only 1,150 surveyed out 160,000,000 likely voters is statistically insignificant.

But if fake polls help you sleep better then go for it. Nothing I post will convince you. I’m done with this.

Quite amusing.

A cult - that dismisses as "fake news" all the concurring polls that confirm the growing disapproval of Trump by most Americans - embraces a poll that confirms the cult supports its leader that identifies with the cult:

​

''I am MAGA!''​

​

 

[Cellblock2429]

Quite amusing.

A cult - that dismisses as "fake news" all the concurring polls that confirm the growing disapproval of Trump by most Americans - embraces a poll that confirms the cult supports its leader that identifies with the cult:

View attachment 1235903​

''I am MAGA!''​

​

/---/ I post facts and all you have are insults and hyperbole. I'm not sure what your goal is, but if it's your lame attempt to undermine the base's support for President Trump, then you are failing magnificently.

One more try. This is how campaigns run polls. A stark difference from the cheap college polls with random adults. If you won't admit it, I hope this educated you a bit.

1. How Campaigns Run Polls (The Methodology)​

Campaigns don't just "ask people questions." They use sophisticated layering to find the specific "swing" voters they need.

• Defining the Universe: Campaigns rarely poll "all adults." They focus on Likely Voters—people with a history of voting in midterms. They use voter files (huge databases of names, addresses, and party registration) to target their calls and texts.
• The "Gold Standard" vs. Modern Reality: * Live Telephone: Historically the gold standard, but response rates have plummeted because people don't answer unknown callers.
  • Online Panels & Text-to-Web: Most 2026 campaigns now use online probability polling or send text messages with links to secure surveys to reach younger, mobile-first voters.
• Weighting the Data: If a poll accidentally talks to 60% women but the district is 50% women, pollsters use statistical weighting to adjust the results so they accurately reflect the actual population.

2. The Three Types of Campaign Polls​

Type	Purpose	Timing
Benchmark Poll	The "Deep Dive." 15-20 minutes long. Tests candidate bio, opponent weaknesses, and key issues.	Start of the campaign.
Brushfire Poll	The "Check-up." Shorter and faster. Tests if a specific ad or news event moved the needle.	Middle of the race.
Tracking Poll	The "Heartbeat." Small samples of voters called every night to see daily momentum.	Final 2-3 weeks.

---

3. How Much Do They Cost?​

Polling is expensive because you are paying for both the data collection (call centers or digital platforms) and the expert analysis.

• Statewide/Congressional Benchmark: $25,000 – $50,000+ per poll. These are massive operations with 600–1,000 respondents.

 

[Frankeneinstein]

A cult - that dismisses as "fake news" all the concurring polls that confirm the growing disapproval of Trump by most Americans - embraces a poll that confirms the cult supports its leader that identifies with the cult:

its your medicine schmap, you're not suppose to like it

 

[Cellblock2429]

its your medicine schmap, you're not suppose to like it

/-----/ I've tried to show Schmidlap that there are good polling data and bad polling. I've studied it for years. But because the small sample polls of random adults give him results he likes, he ignores any and all facts. I've presented.

 

[schmidlap]

its your medicine schmap, you're not suppose to like it

I can't help but find it quite amusing, actually.

Despite all the corroborative, independent public polls that they denounce as "fake news" because they do not like the results, MAGA embraces one poll that finds that MAGA supports someone who has declared, "I am MAGA!"

Surely, the humor doesn't elude you.

 

[Frankeneinstein]

Despite all the corroborative, independent public polls that they denounce as "fake news" because they do not like the results, MAGA embraces one poll that finds that MAGA supports someone who has declared, "I am MAGA!"

I just think it found its target, if nothing else you have provided proof that even you know just because a poll says something you want it to say it is more wish granting and less reality.

Surely, the humor doesn't elude you.

I think the word you really want is irony, and of course you know I see the humor in it, don't I always when you do it?..., what"s most surprising is that you finally do.

 

[Cellblock2429]

I can't help but find it quite amusing, actually.

Despite all the corroborative, independent public polls that they denounce as "fake news" because they do not like the results, MAGA embraces one poll that finds that MAGA supports someone who has declared, "I am MAGA!"

Surely, the humor doesn't elude you.

/——/ Oh, it’s a poll of 1,000 alright, but it’s not of random adults but targeted specifically self identified MAGA members. Thats not a fake poll.
Please don’t let this hurt your brain.

 

[schmidlap]

I just think it found its target, if nothing else you have provided proof that even you know just because a poll says something you want it to say it is more wish granting and less reality.

I think the word you really want is irony, and of course you know I see the humor in it, don't I always when you do it?..., what"s most surprising is that you finally do.

I would never rely on any one poll.

Real Clear Politics (a conservative website) averages quite a wide range of polls:

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL

 

[schmidlap]

/——/ Oh, it’s a poll of 1,000 alright, but it’s not of random adults but targeted specifically self identified MAGA members. Thats not a fake poll.
Please don’t let this hurt your brain.

Cling to whatever one poll gives you pleasure, by all means. Denounce all those that do not.

 

[Cellblock2429]

Cling to whatever one poll gives you pleasure, by all means. Denounce all those that do not.

/—-/ I wait for polls of 3,000 + Likey Voters 2-3 weeks before an election. If you didn’t pick that up from everything I posted, well —- too bad.

 

[schmidlap]

/—-/ I wait for polls of 3,000 + Likey Voters 2-3 weeks before an election. If you didn’t pick that up from everything I posted, well —- too bad.

If a hardcore MAGA prefers the dogma Trump spouts at them, so be it.

I prefer empirical data, and that results in my concurring with most Americans by an increasingly considerable margin.

President Donald Trump Job Approval Ratings and Polls | RealClearPolling

Track President Trump's job approval with RealClearPolling. Gain valuable insights and stay informed on the latest ratings and political developments for a comprehensive view of the political landscape.

www.realclearpolling.com

 

[BackAgain]

Wrong on every count. But keep lying to yourselves.

Oh. Poor widdle IQ2. He is projecting harder than ever.

Just for grins (since we all know you’re too gutless to ever support your position on any discussion), what might the basis be for your pronouncement that he is “wrong” on every count, IQ2?

 

[BackAgain]

If a hardcore MAGA prefers the dogma Trump spouts at them, so be it.

I prefer empirical data, and that results in my concurring with most Americans by an increasingly considerable margin.

You don’t prefer any data.

You’re just a simpleton regurgitating what you’re told to believe.

 

[shockedcanadian]

I am still amazed hat the SAVE Act has not been passed.

 

[EdwinAMartin]

The latest open displays of treason and hatred for the US is backfiring on them.

 

[EdwinAMartin]

I am still amazed hat the SAVE Act has not been passed.

It would have been if the GOP had the number of seats in Congress that reflects the real voters. In just CAli and NY alone they would have a couple of dozen more.

 

[schmidlap]

The latest open displays of treason and hatred for the US is backfiring on them.

They hope to avoid the verdict of their constituents, and they are skulking away:

An unprecedented number of House Republicans are opting to retire or pursue other offices, complicating Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) bid to fend off a potential blue wave in the 2026 midterms and preserve his razor-thin majority.​

​

So far, 36 House Republicans — including the most recent, Rep. Sam Graves (Mo.) — have announced they will leave their seat at the end of their term...​

​

But the number is only likely to grow in the weeks ahead, as Republicans reassess their roles in Washington amid a Trump 2.0 era and the expectation that the president’s party historically faces losses in a midterm year.​

​

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5805206-house-republicans-retiring-2026/

​

Their absconding bodes well for America in the next two years.

 

[schmidlap]

It would have been if the GOP had the number of seats in Congress that reflects the real voters. In just CAli and NY alone they would have a couple of dozen more.

If the advocates of voter suppression could have cited any actual examples of election fraud perpetrated by conspiracies of bogus voters, they would have shown a need for their legislation.

They couldn't.

Insuring an American's right to vote - even a convicted felon casting a ballot by mail - is an expression of democracy.

 

[EdwinAMartin]

If the advocates of voter suppression could have cited any actual examples of election fraud perpetrated by conspiracies of bogus voters, they would have shown a need for their legislation.

They couldn't.

Insuring an American's right to vote - even a convicted felon casting a ballot by mail - is an expression of democracy.

More like when you buffoons were sniveling over the electoral system and wanted 'proportional representation n stuff' the GOP should have taken them up on it and in not doing so screwed themselves.

 

[schmidlap]

More like when you buffoons were sniveling over the electoral system and wanted 'proportional representation n stuff' the GOP should have taken them up on it and in doing so screwed themselves.

You are not commenting on anything I have ever said.

I look forward to Americans voting in November.

While Trump’s decision to join Israel in attacking Iran has rallied war hawks and his older supporters, it has alienated many of the young men who swung toward the GOP in 2024. That split is resonating among not only the rank-and-file, but also conservative media influencers and some corners of the White House.​

​

The generational divide was on stark display at CPAC, the annual conservative base-rallying gathering, where some young MAGA loyalists expressed deep frustration and even anger at the Trump administration’s choice to reignite conflict in the Middle East. One month into the war, Trump’s shaky ground with young men threatens to fracture an already-fragile GOP coalition ahead of a hostile midterm in November.​

​

“Trump and Republicans in general are going to have major issues in the midterms, in 2028, if we can’t wrap this up in a relatively quick amount of time,” said 21-year-old Andrew Belcher, president of the Ohio College Republicans. He added that Trump is doing “relatively poorly” with hyper online young men who are influenced heavily by media figures like Tucker Carlson and other isolationists in the GOP.​

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/28/iran-trump-maga-men-divide-cpac-00849378

​

​