The GOP has drawn even with the Democrats with eight months to go until the midterm elections.

[EdwinAMartin]

You are not commenting on anything I have ever said.

I look forward to Americans voting in November.

While Trump’s decision to join Israel in attacking Iran has rallied war hawks and his older supporters, it has alienated many of the young men who swung toward the GOP in 2024. That split is resonating among not only the rank-and-file, but also conservative media influencers and some corners of the White House.​

​

The generational divide was on stark display at CPAC, the annual conservative base-rallying gathering, where some young MAGA loyalists expressed deep frustration and even anger at the Trump administration’s choice to reignite conflict in the Middle East. One month into the war, Trump’s shaky ground with young men threatens to fracture an already-fragile GOP coalition ahead of a hostile midterm in November.​

​

“Trump and Republicans in general are going to have major issues in the midterms, in 2028, if we can’t wrap this up in a relatively quick amount of time,” said 21-year-old Andrew Belcher, president of the Ohio College Republicans. He added that Trump is doing “relatively poorly” with hyper online young men who are influenced heavily by media figures like Tucker Carlson and other isolationists in the GOP.​

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/28/iran-trump-maga-men-divide-cpac-00849378

​

​

No need to comment on moronic TDS ramblings.

 

[schmidlap]

No need to comment on moronic TDS ramblings.

No need to embrace the verdict of American voters seven months in advance.

Please be patient, whilst guardedly optimistic.

 

[Hafar1014]

No need to embrace the verdict of American voters seven months in advance.

Please be patient, whilst guardedly optimistic.

The only poll that counts is the vote and polls have been consistently wrong about rump

 

[Cellblock2429]

You are not commenting on anything I have ever said.

I look forward to Americans voting in November.

While Trump’s decision to join Israel in attacking Iran has rallied war hawks and his older supporters, it has alienated many of the young men who swung toward the GOP in 2024. That split is resonating among not only the rank-and-file, but also conservative media influencers and some corners of the White House.​

​

The generational divide was on stark display at CPAC, the annual conservative base-rallying gathering, where some young MAGA loyalists expressed deep frustration and even anger at the Trump administration’s choice to reignite conflict in the Middle East. One month into the war, Trump’s shaky ground with young men threatens to fracture an already-fragile GOP coalition ahead of a hostile midterm in November.​

​

“Trump and Republicans in general are going to have major issues in the midterms, in 2028, if we can’t wrap this up in a relatively quick amount of time,” said 21-year-old Andrew Belcher, president of the Ohio College Republicans. He added that Trump is doing “relatively poorly” with hyper online young men who are influenced heavily by media figures like Tucker Carlson and other isolationists in the GOP.​

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/28/iran-trump-maga-men-divide-cpac-00849378

​

​

/—-/ And I’m sure you can back that up with a cheap fake poll of 350 random adults that oversampled democRATs. It’s how you roll.

 

[schmidlap]

/—-/ And I’m sure you can back that up with a cheap fake poll of 350 random adults that oversampled democRATs. It’s how you roll.

My optimism regarding the November elections is predicated upon

1) the overwhelming concurrence of public surveys that confirm the growing disapproval of Trump:

:

President Donald Trump Job Approval Ratings and Polls | RealClearPolling

Track President Trump's job approval with RealClearPolling. Gain valuable insights and stay informed on the latest ratings and political developments for a comprehensive view of the political landscape.

www.realclearpolling.com

​

2) The reflection of this public sentiment in the 2026 generic ballot:

2026 Generic Congressional Vote | RealClearPolling

2026 Generic Congressional Vote | RealClearPolling

www.realclearpolling.com

and 3)

the implications of Trump's "little excursion" with Bibi: the economic consequences, adding to the 90% of Trump's tariffs that are being assessed to that American consumer, whilst Bibi now controls the duration of the war into which he enticed the would-be warlord:

90% of Trump’s tariffs are paid for by American consumers and companies​

At $2 billion a day, how long can the US sustain its war with Iran?​

Netanyahu Says Israel Will Continue to Attack Iran Despite Trump’s Deescalation Post​

​

 

[BackAgain]

They hope to avoid the verdict of their constituents, and they are skulking away:

An unprecedented number of House Republicans are opting to retire or pursue other offices, complicating Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) bid to fend off a potential blue wave in the 2026 midterms and preserve his razor-thin majority.​

​

So far, 36 House Republicans — including the most recent, Rep. Sam Graves (Mo.) — have announced they will leave their seat at the end of their term...​

​

But the number is only likely to grow in the weeks ahead, as Republicans reassess their roles in Washington amid a Trump 2.0 era and the expectation that the president’s party historically faces losses in a midterm year.​

​

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5805206-house-republicans-retiring-2026/

​

Their absconding bodes well for America in the next two years.

Oh. Some guys speculation in a piece in the Hill now satisfies shitlip’s so-called “reliance” on empirical data.

 

[Cellblock2429]

My optimism regarding the November elections is predicated upon

1) the overwhelming concurrence of public surveys that confirm the growing disapproval of Trump:

View attachment 1236271:

President Donald Trump Job Approval Ratings and Polls | RealClearPolling

Track President Trump's job approval with RealClearPolling. Gain valuable insights and stay informed on the latest ratings and political developments for a comprehensive view of the political landscape.

www.realclearpolling.com

​

2) The reflection of this public sentiment in the 2026 generic ballot:

View attachment 1236272

2026 Generic Congressional Vote | RealClearPolling

2026 Generic Congressional Vote | RealClearPolling

www.realclearpolling.com

and 3)

the implications of Trump's "little excursion" with Bibi: the economic consequences, adding to the 90% of Trump's tariffs that are being assessed to that American consumer, whilst Bibi now controls the duration of the war into which he enticed the would-be warlord:

90% of Trump’s tariffs are paid for by American consumers and companies​

At $2 billion a day, how long can the US sustain its war with Iran?​

Netanyahu Says Israel Will Continue to Attack Iran Despite Trump’s Deescalation Post​

​

/----/ OKEY DOKEY, I looked at the first poll, which would be the most telling poll becuase in a debate, you lead with your strongest point. and nowhere does it state any demographics.

Who was polled? Party affiliation? Are they random adults, registered voters, or likely voters, or a mixture of each? And how many were polled? 350? 1,000? 3,000?
What are they hiding?

Just another fake poll so you clowns have something to prop up your gullible base.

New Quantus Survey: A Sour National Mood, and a Midterm Warning

The latest Quantus Insights survey finds a dissatisfied electorate, an underwater president, and an early environment tilting against the party in power.

quantusinsights.org

 

[schmidlap]

/----/ OKEY DOKEY, I looked at the first poll, which would be the most telling poll becuase in a debate, you lead with your strongest point. and nowhere does it state any demographics.

Who was polled? Party affiliation? Are they random adults, registered voters, or likely voters, or a mixture of each? And how many were polled? 350? 1,000? 3,000?
What are they hiding?

Just another fake poll so you clowns have something to prop up your gullible base.

New Quantus Survey: A Sour National Mood, and a Midterm Warning

The latest Quantus Insights survey finds a dissatisfied electorate, an underwater president, and an early environment tilting against the party in power.

quantusinsights.org

If you can't handle the Real Clear Politics ongoing average of many polls, please cite one that comports with your wishes.

How do you dismiss the results of special elections after special election?

Since Trump returned to office, Democrats have flipped over two dozen seats in special and state legislative elections nationwide​

 

[Cellblock2429]

If you can't handle the Real Clear Politics ongoing average of many polls, please cite one that comports with your wishes.

How do you dismiss the results of special elections after special election?

Since Trump returned to office, Democrats have flipped over two dozen seats in special and state legislative elections nationwide​

/------/ If every poll were taken exactly the same, with the same demographics and the same number of people, then you could use an average. But they aren't the same. It's impossible to draw a conclusion.

A Person Might Drown While Attempting To Cross a Stream With an Average Depth of two Feet.​

 

[schmidlap]

/------/ If every poll were taken exactly the same, with the same demographics and the same number of people, then you could use an average. But they aren't the same. It's impossible to draw a conclusion.

A Person Might Drown While Attempting To Cross a Stream With an Average Depth of two Feet.​

View attachment 1236462

I accept that you don't like the results of Real Clear Politics' (a conservative political news website) ongoing compilation of many national polls, your need to ignore the implications of Democrats' consistently flipping seats in special elections nationwide under Trump, and your inability to cite a single poll concerning the public's approval/disapproval of Trump that you can handle.

 

[Cellblock2429]

I accept that you don't like the results of Real Clear Politics' (a conservative political news website) ongoing compilation of many national polls, your need to ignore the implications of Democrats' consistently flipping seats in special elections nationwide under Trump, and your inability to cite a single poll concerning the public's approval/disapproval of Trump that you can handle.

/----/ And I accept that you fail to refute one thing I posted. I accept that you reject all of the facts I have presented because they upset your brain. But deep down inside, next time you read a public opinion poll, you'll pay attention to the demographics and think twice about a poll of random adults.

Polls of "random adults" are often considered the least reliable metric for predicting election outcomes because they capture the opinions of the entire population rather than the specific subset of people who will actually show up to vote.

In the world of political science, there is a "reliability hierarchy" for sampling: Adults → Registered Voters → Likely Voters.

Here is why "random adult" polls often miss the mark:

1. The Participation Gap​

The most significant issue is that many adults do not vote. In a typical U.S. election, a large percentage of the adult population stays home.

• The Flaw: If a poll finds that 55% of adults support a policy, but the 45% who oppose it are the only ones who actually go to the polls, the "adult" survey becomes useless for predicting the political reality.
• The Lean: Historically, polls of "all adults" tend to skew slightly more toward Democrats, as younger and lower-income individuals (who lean left) are less likely to follow through and vote than older, more conservative demographics.

 

[schmidlap]

/----/ And I accept that you fail to refute one thing I posted. I accept that you reject all of the facts I have presented because they upset your brain. But deep down inside, next time you read a public opinion poll, you'll pay attention to the demographics and think twice about a poll of random adults.

Polls of "random adults" are often considered the least reliable metric for predicting election outcomes because they capture the opinions of the entire population rather than the specific subset of people who will actually show up to vote.

In the world of political science, there is a "reliability hierarchy" for sampling: Adults → Registered Voters → Likely Voters.

Here is why "random adult" polls often miss the mark:

1. The Participation Gap​

The most significant issue is that many adults do not vote. In a typical U.S. election, a large percentage of the adult population stays home.

• The Flaw: If a poll finds that 55% of adults support a policy, but the 45% who oppose it are the only ones who actually go to the polls, the "adult" survey becomes useless for predicting the political reality.
• The Lean: Historically, polls of "all adults" tend to skew slightly more toward Democrats, as younger and lower-income individuals (who lean left) are less likely to follow through and vote than older, more conservative demographics.

oll of random adults.

Polls of "random adults" are often considered the least reliable metric for predicting election outcomes because they capture the opinions of the entire population rather than the specific subset of people who will actually show up to vote.

In the world of political science, there is a "reliability hierarchy" for sampling: Adults → Registered Voters → Likely Voters.

Here is why "random adult" polls often miss the mark:

1. The Participation Gap​

The most significant issue is that many adults do not vote. In a typical U.S. election, a large percentage of the adult population stays home.

• The Flaw: If a poll finds that 55% of adults support a policy, but the 45% who oppose it are the only ones who actually go to the polls, the "adult" survey becomes useless for predicting the political reality.
• The Lean: Historically, polls of "all adults" tend to skew slightly more toward Democrats, as younger and lower-income individuals (who lean left) are less likely to follow through and vote than older, more conservative demographics.

I am content to await the November elections' certified results, and ignore any sore losers who are ungracious.

 

[Cellblock2429]

I am content to await the November elections' certified results, and ignore any sore losers who are ungracious.

/——/ Me too.

 

[schmidlap]

/——/ Me too.

Democrats 85% to Flip the House in 2026 Midterms, Senate Still a Toss-Up

Prediction markets are forecasting an 85% chance of House control flipping to Democrats in the 2026 midterms, with the Senate left as a messy, seat‑by‑seat brawl.

defirate.com

 

[Cellblock2429]

Democrats 85% to Flip the House in 2026 Midterms, Senate Still a Toss-Up

Prediction markets are forecasting an 85% chance of House control flipping to Democrats in the 2026 midterms, with the Senate left as a messy, seat‑by‑seat brawl.

defirate.com

/—-/ Now you’re relying on gambling sites???? Seriously???
At its core, a prediction market is a collection of people betting on the outcome of future events. While they look like gambling platforms, they actually function more like a stock exchange where, instead of buying shares of a company, you buy "shares" in a specific outcome.

The basic philosophy is the "Wisdom of the Crowd." The idea is that a group’s collective guess is often more accurate than any single expert because people are financially incentivized to be right.

 

[schmidlap]

/—-/ Now you’re relying on gambling sites???? Seriously???
At its core, a prediction market is a collection of people betting on the outcome of future events. While they look like gambling platforms, they actually function more like a stock exchange where, instead of buying shares of a company, you buy "shares" in a specific outcome.

The basic philosophy is the "Wisdom of the Crowd." The idea is that a group’s collective guess is often more accurate than any single expert because people are financially incentivized to be right.

No, I'm not "relying on gambling sites."

The fact that, as metrics of expectations where self-interest necessarily trumps party affinity, they align with the concurring public surveys.

You've made your personal wishful thinking clear.

When are you going to cite public polls that support it?

 

[Cellblock2429]

No, I'm not "relying on gambling sites."

The fact that, as metrics of expectations where self-interest necessarily trumps party affinity, they align with the concurring public surveys.

You've made your personal wishful thinking clear.

When are you going to cite public polls that support it?

/—-/ I’ll let you know in about 6 months .
Six months before an election, polls are generally unreliable as predictors of the final result, but they are highly accurate as snapshots of the current mood.
If you are looking at polls today for the 2026 Midterms (which are about seven months away), history suggests you should view them with a healthy dose of skepticism. Here is why the "six-month mark" is so tricky:
1. The "Accuracy" Drop-Off
Statistical analysis of past election cycles shows a clear decay in predictive power the further you get from Election Day:

• One Week Out: A poll's 95% confidence interval (the "margin of error") actually only captures the true outcome about 60% of the time.

• Six Months to One Year Out: That "hit rate" drops to roughly 40%.

• The Rule of Double: Many experts suggest that for early polls, you should double the reported margin of error. If a poll says a candidate is up by 3%, the "true" range is likely closer to ±6%, making the race a complete toss-up.

 

[schmidlap]

/—-/ I’ll let you know in about 6 months .
Six months before an election, polls are generally unreliable as predictors of the final result, but they are highly accurate as snapshots of the current mood.
If you are looking at polls today for the 2026 Midterms (which are about seven months away), history suggests you should view them with a healthy dose of skepticism. Here is why the "six-month mark" is so tricky:
1. The "Accuracy" Drop-Off
Statistical analysis of past election cycles shows a clear decay in predictive power the further you get from Election Day:

• One Week Out: A poll's 95% confidence interval (the "margin of error") actually only captures the true outcome about 60% of the time.

• Six Months to One Year Out: That "hit rate" drops to roughly 40%.

• The Rule of Double: Many experts suggest that for early polls, you should double the reported margin of error. If a poll says a candidate is up by 3%, the "true" range is likely closer to ±6%, making the race a complete toss-up.

I do not predict results. I note a consistent trend that I have no reason to doubt will continue.

With the Iran war in its fifth week, support for Trump is at its lowest point ever, with a growing body of recent polling showing him losing ground with key voting blocs that helped power his 2024 victory...​

​

A Reuters/Ipsos poll released March 24 found 36% of voters approve of the president's job performance, the lowest it has been during his second term. The poll found 62% disapproved.​

​

Other polls, such as the AP-NORC poll, placed the figure at 38%.​

​

The shift comes amid growing economic unease and amplified backlash over the war in Iran. About 1 in 3 Americans approve of the military operation, according to a Reuters survey.​

​

And a growing divide among prominent conservatives has emerged over the U.S. involvement in the Middle East.​

​

The clashes have played out in public and are exposing tensions within the Republican Party, with conservative commentators such as Megyn Kelly openly questioning whether the war is in America's best interest.​

​

2026 Generic Congressional Vote | RealClearPolling

2026 Generic Congressional Vote | RealClearPolling

www.realclearpolling.com

​

​

​

President Donald Trump Job Approval Ratings and Polls | RealClearPolling

Track President Trump's job approval with RealClearPolling. Gain valuable insights and stay informed on the latest ratings and political developments for a comprehensive view of the political landscape.

www.realclearpolling.com

Trump might try posting more racist memes, but it would not expand his base.

 

[Cellblock2429]

I do not predict results. I note a consistent trend that I have no reason to doubt will continue.

With the Iran war in its fifth week, support for Trump is at its lowest point ever, with a growing body of recent polling showing him losing ground with key voting blocs that helped power his 2024 victory...​

​

A Reuters/Ipsos poll released March 24 found 36% of voters approve of the president's job performance, the lowest it has been during his second term. The poll found 62% disapproved.​

​

Other polls, such as the AP-NORC poll, placed the figure at 38%.​

​

The shift comes amid growing economic unease and amplified backlash over the war in Iran. About 1 in 3 Americans approve of the military operation, according to a Reuters survey.​

​

And a growing divide among prominent conservatives has emerged over the U.S. involvement in the Middle East.​

​

The clashes have played out in public and are exposing tensions within the Republican Party, with conservative commentators such as Megyn Kelly openly questioning whether the war is in America's best interest.​

​

2026 Generic Congressional Vote | RealClearPolling

2026 Generic Congressional Vote | RealClearPolling

www.realclearpolling.com

​

​

View attachment 1236656​

President Donald Trump Job Approval Ratings and Polls | RealClearPolling

Track President Trump's job approval with RealClearPolling. Gain valuable insights and stay informed on the latest ratings and political developments for a comprehensive view of the political landscape.

www.realclearpolling.com

/—-/ Meaningless. Here you go again with a fake poll: The poll, which was conducted online and nationwide, gathered responses from 1,272 U.S. adults and had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
No breakdown of party, age, or even if they are citizens, just random adults. And thus far out you double the margin of error to 6%.
Keep dreaming.

 

[Frankeneinstein]

I would never rely on any one poll.

that's like thinking candy is healthy because you eat all of them

Real Clear Politics (a conservative website) averages quite a wide range of polls:

so? what do they say about how truthful and accurate people feel polls are? how truthful and accurate are they schmap?