The $100 Floor: Technical Correction or a Shift in Oil Fundamentals?

[BellaJones]

The energy market witnessed a dramatic sell-off on March 24th, with Brent futures diving over 5% to slip below the psychological $100 barrier, while WTI plummeted toward the $87 mark. After weeks of vertical gains, this "price crater" is forcing a reality check on the actual tightness of the global supply chain.

Price Action: The "Ceasefire Discount" vs. Structural Deficits

The primary driver behind the recent drop is a massive injection of "hope" into the futures market. Speculative traders are pricing in a potential de-escalation in the Middle East, leading to a rapid liquidation of the long positions that fueled the rally above $110.

 

[luiza]

Just normal fluctuation based on immediate Sheeple emotions .
Sheeple trade on their emotions which is why they all lose in the long run .

If you want Brent at $180 , just flatten the Statue of Liberty and scribble Allahu Akbar on a larger piece of rubble .

If you want Brent back at $85 just write a speech for Motor Mouth including how he personally won the war for the benefit of mankind .

 

[EdwinAMartin]

https://www.bts.gov/browse-statistical-products-and-data/info-gallery/us-petroleum-use-domestic-supply-and-net-imports

No evidence for why gas prices in the US are so high, since imports are nearly nil, and no way cost increases are up over 30%.

Just chalk it up to the usual opportunist gouging, followed by every other business jumping on the bandwagon, same as always

 

[RoshawnMarkwees]

https://www.bts.gov/browse-statistical-products-and-data/info-gallery/us-petroleum-use-domestic-supply-and-net-imports

No evidence for why gas prices in the US are so high, since imports are nearly nil, and no way cost increases are up over 30%.

Just chalk it up to the usual opportunist gouging, followed by every other business jumping on the bandwagon, same as always

No, it’s normal supply and demand economics. Whenever supply is threatened or diminished the price goes up. Just like with the ‘73 Arab oil embargo, ‘79 Iran revolution, 2007 congress, Obama admin, Biden admin.

 

[The Duke]

No, it’s normal supply and demand economics. Whenever supply is threatened or diminished the price goes up. Just like with the ‘73 Arab oil embargo, ‘79 Iran revolution, 2007 congress, Obama admin, Biden admin.

Yeah, towards the end of Bush gas was over $4/gallon. There was nobody on the roads.

 

[EdwinAMartin]

NAh, it's gouging, pure and simple.

 

[RoshawnMarkwees]

No, it’s normal supply and demand economics. Whenever supply is threatened or diminished the price goes up. Just like with the ‘73 Arab oil embargo, ‘79 Iran revolution, 2007 congress, Obama admin, Biden admin.

Living through the realities i mentioned is called fake news.
Looks like another ignore.

 

[Admiral Rockwell Tory]

Yeah, towards the end of Bush gas was over $4/gallon. There was nobody on the roads.

I remember those days. I have actually only paid $4.00 a gallon for gas only one time in my life. I was traveling to visit my son who lived in Arlington VA and I had to get gas at a station in West Virginia. I believe I paid about $4.12. Never again! Gas was always below $4.00 everywhere else.

 

[EdwinAMartin]

Living through the realities i mentioned is called fake news.
Looks like another ignore.

Thank you. I appreciate it, since you're clearly just promoting an ideology, not economic fact. There is no basis for pricing domestic production by using international spot market prices. It's just a fake excuse to fool the gullible.

 

[Admiral Rockwell Tory]

NAh, it's gouging, pure and simple.

You have no idea how gasoline prices are set, do you?

 

[EdwinAMartin]

I remember those days. I have actually only paid $4.00 a gallon for gas only one time in my life. I was traveling to visit my son who lived in Arlington VA and I had to get gas at a station in West Virginia. I believe I paid about $4.12. Never again! Gas was always below $4.00 everywhere else.

Adjusting for inflation, it's still not as high as then now. Still relatively cheap; it is incomes that have not kept up.

 

[EdwinAMartin]

You have no idea how gasoline prices are set, do you?

Of course I do, which is why I ignore ideological fantasy rubbish.

 

[Admiral Rockwell Tory]

Adjusting for inflation, it's still not as high as then now. Still relatively cheap; it is incomes that have not kept up.

Now when I pay $3.65 a gallon I just smile because we are killing Iranian mullahs.

 

[Admiral Rockwell Tory]

Of course I do, which is why I ignore ideological fantasy rubbish.

So, who initially buys the oil on the international market? Let's say the oil coming out of the ground at my son's drilling site in North Dakota. Where does that oil go and who buys it?

 

[EdwinAMartin]

U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels per Day)

Domestic production is higher than ever. Claiming a shortage here is just bullshit.

 

[EdwinAMartin]

So, who initially buys the oil on the international market?

Not the US. We're not Japan. Did you think we were?

 

[Admiral Rockwell Tory]

Not the US. We're not Japan. Did you think we were?

Oil is a global commodity. We pay the going rate.

See? You don't know about the oil industry after all.

 

[EdwinAMartin]

Oil is a global commodity. We pay the going rate.

See? You don't know about the oil industry after all.

And of course it's just stupid price gouging. See? You don't now squat about real life business. That 'supply and demand' horseshit is just fantasy ideological rubbish, is all. International spot markets have nothing to do with domestic oil production and prices, i.e. domestic supply and demand. It's just a scam to sell to gullible suckers like you. There are no 'free markets'.

 

[Admiral Rockwell Tory]

And of course it's just stupid price gouging. See? You don't now squat about real life business. That 'supply and demand' horseshit is just fantasy ideological rubbish, is all. International spot markets have nothing to do with domestic oil production and prices, i.e. domestic supply and demand. It's just a scam to sell to gullible suckers like you. There are no 'free markets'.

Exactly! Which is why when the world supply declines, people buy oil because they know it is short supply and pay more. Then they charge more when they sell to refineries.

Oil produced here in the US costs the same whether it came from the ground in the US, Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, Nigeria or the Middle East.

 

[EdwinAMartin]

Exactly! Which is why when the world supply declines, people buy oil because they know it is short supply and pay more. Then they charge more when they sell to refineries.

Oil produced here in the US costs the same whether it came from the ground in the US, Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, Nigeria or the Middle East.

So if there is a bread shortage in say, Tunisia, Americans should have to pay triple for a loaf of bread, cuz some clowns can make a windfall off of it? lol sorry, no sale.