I used to be pretty good at picking games but not so great the last 3-4 years, as I just don't follow from week to week like I used to.
With that much-needed disclaimer out of the way, I may be off again, but my eyes tell me the Eagles will wear the Chiefs down. I think it'll look competitive for the first 1-2 quarters but the Eagles have one of the better front fours I've seen in a few years, and I think they will get to Mahomes and frustrate him. They also disguise their blitzes very, very well. They'll force him to make throws before he's ready and as much as I really do like Mahomes, he does have a Brett Favre-like tendency to force things when he feels like the game is slipping away.
The Eagles are also underrated on offense. Hurts isn't Tom Brady or Mahomes, but he doesn't have to be. He just needs to avoid making big mistakes. I could see him making a few goofs in the first quarter if he gets jittery, but he'll lean on the defense and power offense and get into his groove. He's got a very talented group of receivers to throw to and the running game is smash-mouth.
Eagles 33
Chiefs 17