Stocks Should Do Very Well in the 3rd Qtr

[william the wie]

There are four factors at work due to three miscalculations..

The EU was supposed to be a net profit to its members but that has been proven false by Brexit, Greece, Italy and other less famous cases.

Confirmation bias run wild in energy, We are more likely to see $20/bbl oil than $70/bbl oil. The Iran-KSA price war will assure that.

Bill Clinton meeting AG Lynch this week more or less ensures either an indictment of Hillary and a substitute candidate being chosen or her being convicted in the court of public opinion of being the candidate of corruption.

Therefore many people expect a downturn but they did not think about when this will happen.

Iran is having trouble getting financing for the proven untapped reserves it has. This will not be straightened out until at least Oct.. Bankruptcy settlements in the US oil patch will not be very valuable at today's prices much less at the prices that will be available after Iran gets financing. Decent prices depend on pipeline construction rates at. least here in the US. This problem is not being addressed in the coming election. Rapid and sustained price drops will not hit until at least Oct. But the shorting has already started and those shorts have to be covered.

Shorts and puts against Brexit already exist and they too need to be covered or written off.

China has about the same chance of coming back as big band music but this will not be obvious for quite a while.Shorts are almost impossible to perform on the Shanghai index,

Real estate bubbles are forming worldwide but being based on Chinese capital flight and Deutsche Bank CDSs. Direct US effects are nearly zero. US reaction is unknowable.

Hillary has negatives that compete with Trump's so any and all results of the coming election are going to torque off the majority. Nov. puts and Shorts are likely to be profitable but that assumes that Ds will show up when Hillary loses her appeal due to her own corruption.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Much of what you write makes sense.

Clinton, however, will not be anything but the Dem candidate.

My wife agrees with your analysis on realty and their markets and effects.

She says your hatred of Clinton overloads your rationality on the subject.

 

[HaShev]

Only if we have a full correction, that Brexit event correction was close, but off a few percentage points and now raced back up to fast to much. We are near the highs again which make it hard to go up during usually bad trading months. Especially if another country follows suit or event in Europe rocks the markets. Watch the Vix, it's at teeter point where there's no money to be made in this kind of small range market. Sell upper range profits when it's at 20 and buy low range targets at 10.

 

[william the wie]

There won't be a full correction here prior to Oct. because too much hot money is moving here to get away from Negative interest rates in the EU and the Far East anyone who comes here to live in their own house and live off their own income. But the finances of the blue wall are a disaster. IL is a nearly total disaster and CA is borderline technically insolvent coming up on the Fire season. NJ, PA, NY, CT and MA contain states that are rated worse than IL by one or more analysts. Given that IL has been in default on its non-bonded debts for @ two decades and its bonds are priced to junk yields that is a mighty high bar for financial incompetence.to vault over. At a bare minimum that will be bad news come Oct.

 

[HaShev]

Yeah I Hate Munis, way to low rate return and all the risk of corp bonds.

 

[william the wie]

Not to worry with the blue wall you can or at least could get 2-4 times the yield of comparable duration treasuries and tax free. .

 

[HaShev]

It's better to buy a diversified batch of stock traded funds on various fixed income strategies in order to buy into diversified baskets taking away the risk of any individual bad apples. Buying the WELL managed portfolios at their low range especially during rate increase scare bargains or liquidity issue scare bargains and selling them at typical peeks you can double your yield sometimes more depending how many trades you can make on the same funds fluctuations. This strategy works through all scenerios if you do not put all your eggs in at the same time and catch accidental crashes with strategic low bids.

 

[william the wie]

I find it simpler to use Value Line and AAII as my guide. I can explain how I use VL using information available on their website and avoid making trouble for USMB.

The highest safety rating and mention in either of their two alert lists is my first check.

Then I check to see if I already have a position in the issue, if not I write a put on the issue if it fits my budget and the revenue is the highest among the candidates. If it si put to me I write a call that produces acceptable revenue and gets me out at a profit.

This is a plan I can execute even if I am recovering from minor surgery and I am temporarily an idiot. I consider that the key criteria for any investment plan.

 

[saveliberty]

I'd rather invest in some solid individual stocks, than hope for a broad market upturn.

 

[william the wie]

there's a list of 20 stocks that got hit harder by the down draft than most other stocks on MarketWatch today.