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From the article YOU linked:
It’s not clear how severe a recession we’re going to get.
Right. So there WILL be a recession--we're just not sure how severe. And we knew this, and voters know just who to blame. But in your fevered imagination, the slightest downturn in the economy that Biden shipwrecked will send Americans voting for Democrats in droves.
Yeah okay
Face it... Dems are well and truly screwed in November 2022...
And if (a) the Pubs run anybody BUT the Orange Kool-Aid Kon-Man and (b) the Dems run Sleepy Old Joe again, the same is going to hold true for 2024.
It is what it is.I am sure that you believe refinery capacity is determined by democrats. I mean SERIOUSly, if you can't find anything else to bitch about with Biden, you need to seek new news sources. LOL
b
that’s silly…republicans do everything to avoid recessions…that’s why we don’t vote dembot
The recession was going to happen no matter who won in 2020. The US has averaged a recession every 7 years since the end of the Great Depression. These are not glitches, these are built into our system.
Now, the real debate will be over how much worse Biden's actions will make the recession.
Did we suddenly retroactively decide that 2020 wasn't a recession?
It is what it is.
It's your ilk's anti-fossil fuel policies are preventing new refineries from being built. It takes at least five years to build a refinery. That and who in their right mind would invest in such a project in the current political climate?
Estimated Cost of Building a Crude Oil Refinery in 2022.
Oh well maybe with the EPA's dick being slapped 6-3 yesterday things will turn around by and by in that regard but that does not help us now nor will it help your ilk three months from now.
Hell just the litigation involved in killing the fiat rules put in place by the regulatory agencies will take years.
The real problem, as stated, is that if unemployment doesn't really go up, is it a recession even if GDP contracts? One of the main drivers of this inflation is that we have a labor shortage. Boomers are retiring, there aren't enough millennials to replace them and they have shitty work attitudes, and America has been a lot less welcoming to immigrant labor.
It was a mini-recession that lasted 2 months. So, no I really do not count that one as it was not a product of our system.
that’s silly…republicans do everything to avoid recessions…that’s why we don’t vote dembot
I dunno. The comment by Powell when they up rates .75 that they were trying to kill expectation of costs without killing demand ... or something like that.Inflation is stabilizing and many indicators suggests we may actually see disinflation. I see it daily in my business. For those of you who believe in a free market capitalist economy this is how it works. Supply has increased with pandemic disruptions mostly behind us and higher prices from greedy corporations has driven demand lower. We are about to see a pricing pullback. Buckle up. Likely lead to a clean democratic sweep this fall of prices moderate.
- Falling freight rates
- Falling commodity prices - worst quarter since Great Recession
- Easing rents
- Cheaper GPUs
- Rising retail inventories
Disinflation begins
Prices are starting to decelerate, but the cause isn't yet clear.noahpinion.substack.com
For over a year now, we’ve seen inflation rise relentlessly. Price rises have lowered real wages for most workers, driven popular anger, and threatened economic stability. But there are finally indications that the tide is turning. In March, financial markets were predicting an annualized inflation rate of around 3.5% over the next five years; now, that number is down to 2.6%.
And expectations for inflation over the following five years, which had spiked up during the initial phase of the Ukraine war, have plunged back toward the Fed’s official 2% inflation target:
So markets think prices are going to cool down. That’s good in and of itself, because it means we’re in less danger of the sort of expectations-driven spiral that can lead to truly devastating hyperinflation. Markets have not yet lost confidence in the Fed. But this doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods, since markets are actually pretty bad at predicting future inflation.
It will be interesting to see what happens with that. Losing a job is always the biggest fear/danger of a recession and that could be less of a problem this time around. If it is, then the recession will be more like the early 2000s recession.
/-----/ Joe gives your post a round of applause.Inflation is stabilizing and many indicators suggests we may actually see disinflation. I see it daily in my business. For those of you who believe in a free market capitalist economy this is how it works. Supply has increased with pandemic disruptions mostly behind us and higher prices from greedy corporations has driven demand lower. We are about to see a pricing pullback. Buckle up. Likely lead to a clean democratic sweep this fall of prices moderate.
- Falling freight rates
- Falling commodity prices - worst quarter since Great Recession
- Easing rents
- Cheaper GPUs
- Rising retail inventories
Disinflation begins
Prices are starting to decelerate, but the cause isn't yet clear.
For over a year now, we’ve seen inflation rise relentlessly. Price rises have lowered real wages for most workers, driven popular anger, and threatened economic stability. But there are finally indications that the tide is turning. In March, financial markets were predicting an annualized inflation rate of around 3.5% over the next five years; now, that number is down to 2.6%.
And expectations for inflation over the following five years, which had spiked up during the initial phase of the Ukraine war, have plunged back toward the Fed’s official 2% inflation target:
So markets think prices are going to cool down. That’s good in and of itself, because it means we’re in less danger of the sort of expectations-driven spiral that can lead to truly devastating hyperinflation. Markets have not yet lost confidence in the Fed. But this doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods, since markets are actually pretty bad at predicting future inflation.
Not unusual. We've taken a real beating over the last three years.
Same problem in 2010 and 1994... Democrats were fixing things, but people still had a bad taste in their mouths from how badly Republicans fucked things up.
Well Trump fucked up the labor supply .... before the pandemic. He wanted imports more expensive and fewer US workers.Not unusual. We've taken a real beating over the last three years.
Same problem in 2010 and 1994... Democrats were fixing things, but people still had a bad taste in their mouths from how badly Republicans fucked things up.
clinton, obama, xiden all gave us recession65 million people got displaced from their jobs... I'd call it one.
Yet, Republicans brought us Recessions in 2020, 2008, 2001, 1990, and 1981. The last time a Democrat had a recession was Jimmy Carter. Before Carter, Republicans brought us recessions in 1975, 1969, 1960, 1957 and 1954.
The recession was going to happen no matter who won in 2020. The US has averaged a recession every 7 years since the end of the Great Depression. These are not glitches, these are built into our system.
Now, the real debate will be over how much worse Biden's actions will make the recession.
/----/ Not only do we believe it, but so does Dementia Joe.I am sure that you believe refinery capacity is determined by democrats. I mean SERIOUSly, if you can't find anything else to bitch about with Biden, you need to seek new news sources. LOL
b
One has to be delusional, or unimaginably ignorant, not to see the connection between the recent policies of the Democraps, and the disastrous effects that they are having on the economy.
Yes, we are all getting a very vivid demonstration of how Democraps “fix things”.
Well Trump fucked up the labor supply .... before the pandemic. He wanted imports more expensive and fewer US workers.
And at the heart of it, the Fed thought labor would bounce back post-pandemic, and it didn't. Plenty of blame to go around there. And oil went up faster than anyone thought ... but surely someone had to know.
