RE: Science isn’t always the answer.
⁜→ RetiredGySgt, et al,
BLUF: Uncertainty is driven by the significant influence of particular data, the number of significant variables, the sheer number of variables that can be tracked simultaneously, - and - the rate of change in the value of these variables, make the probability analysis (what is most likely to happen in the prediction of the future) extremely difficult and subject to errors. That is why there are constant updates to weather forecasts on any giver developing weather patterns.
(COMMENT)
OK, to a certain degree, you are correct. To date, there is no such thing as a near-certain (that is a very high probability) in the prediction of weather much beyond blatantly obvious conditions 120 to 170 hours in advance. Except in the huge pattern of weather (Tropical Storm and Hurricane size) predictions get tricky. That is (obviously) because of the extremely large number of variables that need to be considered and rapid changes in these various.
Having said that, there are improvements being made in the algorithms and systems used to make such predictions easier. And, as you can see (by the references, supra) the tools being brought to bear in meteorology and the processing of data on the various phenomena of the atmospherics, are huge. And forecasting has constantly improved over the last half-century with the advent of these new tools.
Uncertainty affects nearly every branch of science; some more than others. And each branch of science has methods for determining the best value of an unknown quantity relating one or more sets of observations or measurements when searching for that which best fits the known data. The study of meteorological · atmospheric · and climate conditions and forecasting (all of which are characterized by constant change, activity, or progress) are every bit as dynamic as cosmology.
Most Respectfully,
R
⁜→ RetiredGySgt, et al,
BLUF: Uncertainty is driven by the significant influence of particular data, the number of significant variables, the sheer number of variables that can be tracked simultaneously, - and - the rate of change in the value of these variables, make the probability analysis (what is most likely to happen in the prediction of the future) extremely difficult and subject to errors. That is why there are constant updates to weather forecasts on any giver developing weather patterns.
Go ahead link to a computer model test that recreated a weather disaster in 1960 1970 or 1980? Hell I will settle for 1990.
By the way NOT ONE computer model they have used as actually predicted the future they have all been way off.
(REFERENCES)If one can not do weather one can not do climate dumb ass. Name ONE of the computer models that got it right link to it with the predictions and the facts.
◈ Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
(COMMENT)
OK, to a certain degree, you are correct. To date, there is no such thing as a near-certain (that is a very high probability) in the prediction of weather much beyond blatantly obvious conditions 120 to 170 hours in advance. Except in the huge pattern of weather (Tropical Storm and Hurricane size) predictions get tricky. That is (obviously) because of the extremely large number of variables that need to be considered and rapid changes in these various.
Having said that, there are improvements being made in the algorithms and systems used to make such predictions easier. And, as you can see (by the references, supra) the tools being brought to bear in meteorology and the processing of data on the various phenomena of the atmospherics, are huge. And forecasting has constantly improved over the last half-century with the advent of these new tools.
Uncertainty affects nearly every branch of science; some more than others. And each branch of science has methods for determining the best value of an unknown quantity relating one or more sets of observations or measurements when searching for that which best fits the known data. The study of meteorological · atmospheric · and climate conditions and forecasting (all of which are characterized by constant change, activity, or progress) are every bit as dynamic as cosmology.
Most Respectfully,
R