Russia will pay a heavy price for its war in Ukraine

[Hutch Starskey]

Putin is bringing down his country as he can’t sustain the Ukraine invasion

His health is failing and he is becoming increasingly isolated

He’ll be hiding in a hole like Saddam before too long.

 

[Sunni Man]

You reek of failure, comrade.

The Russians army did what they always do in Kherson.
Pull back, draw in the Ukraine soldiers, let them exhaust their ammo and supplies, then encircle and finish them off with massive artillery barrages.
The media hyped Ukraine counter-offensive was a flop and the Russian army is still advancing on every front. ...

 

[whitehall]

I’ll tell ya what

I‘ll keep my money in US Dollars
You invest in Rubles

Missin the point? Europe is paying a high price for sanctions on Russia. The country that produces the fossil fuel is the winner.

 

[rightwinger]

Missin the point? Europe is paying a high price for sanctions on Russia. The country that produces the fossil fuel is the winner.

Europe is adapting
Global oil prices are declining

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

You reek of failure, comrade.

Ukrainian forces advance deep into Russian lines in Kharkiv region - general

Ukrainian troops have recaptured more than 700 square km (270 square miles) of territory in the south and in the eastern Kharkiv region, where they advanced up to 50 km (31 miles) into Russian lines and retaken more than 20 villages, a Ukrainian general said on Thursday.

www.reuters.com

I agree that Putin is in big trouble. If the recent rout of Russian forces worsens in the next month or two before winter sets in, if the Ukrainians retake Kherson, then Putin could well be forced to resign and made a scapegoat — if there are security types with the courage to act.

Not saying this will happen, but it is possible. Alternatively a few big public demonstrations complaining about how the war is being “mishandled,” could lead regional bureaucrats to speak up, starting the disintegration of Putin’s personal regime. What replaces Putin if that occurs is anybody’s guess. I used to think the likelihood was that his replacement would be worse. I am not so sure now.

There should be no illusions that a “democratic” system can run the sprawling Russian Federation… The whole oil and gas economy (the “Curse of Oil”), the many far flung provinces and cities with their isolation and dependence on Moscow make that very unlikely, even if most Russians were psychologically ready to have another try at building really liberal and democratic government institutions — which they apparently are not.

One good thing is that the most prominent nationally recognized “anti-corruption” oppositionist — Alexei Navalny — has already come out forthrightly against the war. I have no idea if he would survive a transition, or if the security groups (and the now weak oligarchs) could rally about him if Putin falters. I figure that would be about the best interim solution we could hope for. I don’t have a good idea of where Navalny stands today on “the West” or how many powerful oligarchs might support him. He is at least personally courageous, which could satisfy Russian’s admiration for “strong” leaders.

Here is a May report commenting on Navalny’s attitude to the war: