As it stands now there is only a small possibility, that Obama will choose Turkey for his "Islam-Relations" speech which is expected from him to be spoken in an Islamic country. Newspapers report here that political Ankara does also not want Obama holding his "Islam"-speech over here. Actually this is a good sign, because the visit of Obama will not be made due to this speech. He can visit another neighbouring country just for the sake of speaking to the "Islamic World".
If he would have chosen Turkey for his speech it would be perceived with a bitter conspiracy aftertaste as if the U.S. had chosen Turkey to be leader of the Islamic world in the form of "Hey, look bad guys this is the good guy". In such a leadership position Turkey is growing anyway whether USA supports or disklikes does not matter, we have no gift to take from anyone, we grow into that position by power, determination and self-confidence.
The visit of Obama which will be likely on 6th or 7th March equaling to the 77th day Obama in office will be made as damage controll from Bush era. This signals the determination of the Obama administration to repair the relations with Turkey. And off course US wants not to repair the relations with Turkey because US has gone from Saulus to Paulus with Obama, but US has no other option. USA can not make any adventures around here without Turkey, contrary thinking circles in USA will crash the plane as Bush did.
Some circles in the US wanted to play hardball with Turkey between the period 2003-2007. This pictured itself in USA blocking Turkish power projection into Iraq, looking away from PKK and making Iraq a No-Go zone for Turkey and putting Armenian resolutions in your congress. When Turkey threatened to play hardball back and called its ambassador from Washington home, Bush who logically did not like Turkey and her current leaders because Turkish stance on Bush adventures was primarily the cause of Bush failure around here as Rumfsfeld said several times had no option to come to terms with Turkey. Some quotes from that period:
"... Some in Congress wanted to play hardball. I can assure you that Turkey knows how to play hardball," Egemen Bagis, ruling AK Party deputy chairman and Erdogan's foreign policy adviser, told reporters in Washington"
Turkey says ready to face world criticism over Iraq | Reuters
Now there is not coming anymore beep-beeps from Barzani, Kirkuk stays Iraqi, North-Iraqi airspace is de-facto Turkish airspace, US satellites cruise orbit producing intelligence for Turkish general staff and Bush himself making CIA giving Turkey informations it does not even give UK or Germany.
Kurden-Konflikt: Bush verspricht Erdogan Zugriff auf CIA-Daten - Nachrichten Politik - WELT ONLINE
Google Translation http://www.welt.de/politik/article1337019/Bush_verspricht_Erdogan_Zugriff_auf_CIA_Daten.html
This all in an environment where the personal interactions by state leaders do also count in diplomacy between states and we can write down that the "personal connection" between the US government and Turkish government was icy. Would Turkey have cooperated with Bush adventurer Bush would not have been remembered as plane crasher but as "Democracy Lighthouse Builder of Bagdad". Sounds arrogant but Turkish support would have meant a sure enough stabilizing factor for US plane under Bush pilot.
Obama and Biden assured Armenian voters and "Armenian genocide faking mafia"-Lobies within USA to recognize this mafia produced faking. Off course during his presidential campaign Obama did not have access to state knowledge. Now Obama has access to this state knowledge and diplomacy canals are open for him, welcome in the reality Mr. Obama, you are facing the Turkish hardball player with its anatomically and sports meant steel balls.
Such a joy to see in the faces of people like "Lycurgus" from above which made some beep-beeps in that direction.
As i already said, US wants not to leave behind Bush era with Turkey because Obama-America is the do-gooder for just the sake of doing good, but Realpolitik paves the way for "Armenian Genocide"-Promisser Obama.
Realpolitik from US view gives the need
- for Turkey cooperating in the redeployment of US-Forces from Iraq
- growing into regional vacuum filler not against US interests
- not taking steps making life of Israel harder
- more Turkish soldiers for Afghanistan
- widening Incirlik airbase after Kyrgiszistan F*U.
- reverting cooperation with Iran
- distributing Turkish capacities to stop Iranian outreach in non-Iran Middle-East which is within Turkish reach
- reverting cooperation with Russia and join pressuring campaign against Russia, as Turkey is the NATO-country with most tools to pressure Russia
Turkey is a crucial link in the Wests pressure campaign against Russia. (...) But the Turks have little interest (...) to be pushed by the United States into a potential conflict naval or otherwise with the Russians. (...) But the Russians are playing a risky game. As much as Turkey wants this conflict to go away, it still has cards to play far more than any other NATO member if it is pushed too hard.
Free Article for Non-Members | STRATFOR