I know, that many of you do not have much knowledge about Turkey. The knowledge you might have is a bit on foreign policy and through an US perspective.
I want to write about the closure case against the AKP and what might come next.
For this you have to know, that current Prime Minister Erdogan is a very charismatic leader. He is nearly unmatched in approaching the publics. Also his talking skills are very good.
In short he is very popular. In Turkey "political parties" are not that important as it is the leaders of the parties. The electors do vote for the persons leading the party and not necassarily for the programme of the party.
Also when Erdogan came to power, it happened through a new founded party. The AKP. The time frame also played into the hands of the new party, as AKP was elected into office in 2002, and just months ago in 2001 Turkey had the worst economic crisis since Republic's foundation.
People were sick of old dinosaurs in Turkish politics, and might have thought that these dinosaurs were given enough chance and they did lead Turkey in a economic crisis. So AKP was elected.
For example former president Süleyman Demirel has lead DYP party over 30 years. Current leader of CHP party is about 70 years old and has lead the party into election 6 times, never achieving victory, but staying at the head of the party.
This is what it is called being dinosaur.
Turkish people think very much with the heart. And sometimes irrationally. Many depends on persons in politics.
And AKP party will get closed. It is an unspoken secret. Not so secret if i think more about.
There is a person which was deputy in AKP, state minister for economics. But today he resigned from AKP party. Paralelly he teaches economics in TOBB University.
His name is Sener. He is very young, and as much talented in approaching the masses as Erdogan is. Also he is a professor and all polls in Turkey show, that he is one of the most trusted and loved persons in politics.
There is for long rumours in Turkish newspapers floating that Sener will form a new party. The party has the support of TOBB, which is the "Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey" and is very powerfull. Sener also is Professor at an TOBB University. TOBB is together with TÜSIAD (Association of Turkish Business) the most powerfull civil institution within Turkey.
What they say counts, as money makes the talk.
Head of TOBB is Hisarciklioglu who hisself is a factor when talking about Turkish economy. It is being said, that Hisarciklioglu will also take a leading role within Sener's new party. So the party will be lead by Professors and leading business persons of the country. This is an important message for the public, as it implies that public can vote for them without fearing they will crash the economy.
Today Sener resigned from AKP party officially. And today also there where advertises in Turkish newspapers of a new party being formed with Sener's picture on the advertise.
AKP will get banned in about 3-6 weeks. Turkey will have new elections in fall of this year. And there is a very high chance that the masses will give confidence to this new party in the elections to be held in fall this year.
The AKP is getting destroyed, and split from within. When AKP is being banned, there will be transfers from former AKP members to the new party. Off course Sener will select them and off course only members will be transferred who will not have a political ban by the Constitutional court in about 3-6 weeks.
It is being said in newspaper articles, that about 60 AKP members of Turkish parliament have already signaled to switch to the new party.
Sener is 54, Hisarciklioglu 53. So this is fresh blood in an environment of dinosaurs.
Also, allthough you as US citizens might not know the names, there are several names from former politics and civil society who will start career in Sener's party.
Newspapers report that Sener and his gang are in the believe that to be elected there is being the need for a strong squad, who are clean (corruption) and have sympathies in the public.
I think Sener will be new Prime Minister of Turkey in some months. Good for Turkey. He is very talented, a person of integrity, can talk very well and the masses love him.
As a bonus he is one of the most competent men in Turkey in cases of Economy.