Recent Rapid SST Rise

[Crick]

Remember Billy Boy's 22 January claim that the oceans were devoid of excess heat and there would be no El Nino in the foreseeable future?

LOL... A general "we haven't a clue" forecast. Got to love it. And not one of them has looked to the regions which store heat to see if it is building in our oceans. These regions are empty of heat. This means a very weak or no El Niño for the ENSO and then back to the La Niña.

I think that NOAA is in for a big surprise when it does not form or is very weak. The energy loss above the poles is massive and they are ignoring it.

La Niña shows signs of ending. Is El Niño next? (msn.com)

Recent, rapid ocean warming ahead of El Niño alarms scientists

There’s growing concern that the oceans are heating up quickly – and scientists are unsure of the implications.

www.bbc.com

and the study on which this is based

Heat stored in the Earth system 1960–2020: where does the energy go?

Abstract. The Earth climate system is out of energy balance, and heat has accumulated continuously over the past decades, warming the ocean, the land, the cryosphere, and the atmosphere. According to the Sixth Assessment Report by Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change...

essd.copernicus.org

I wonder if he needs a do-over.

 

[Crick]

Remember Billy Boy's 22 January claim that the oceans were devoid of excess heat and there would be no El Nino in the foreseeable future?

Recent, rapid ocean warming ahead of El Niño alarms scientists

There’s growing concern that the oceans are heating up quickly – and scientists are unsure of the implications.

www.bbc.com

and the study on which this is based

Heat stored in the Earth system 1960–2020: where does the energy go?

Abstract. The Earth climate system is out of energy balance, and heat has accumulated continuously over the past decades, warming the ocean, the land, the cryosphere, and the atmosphere. According to the Sixth Assessment Report by Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change...

essd.copernicus.org

I wonder if he needs a do-over.

From the BBS Science article above:

From that ESSD study
Abstract
The Earth climate system is out of energy balance, and heat has accumulated continuously over the past decades, warming the ocean, the land, the cryosphere, and the atmosphere. According to the Sixth Assessment Report by Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this planetary warming over multiple decades is human-driven and results in unprecedented and committed changes to the Earth system, with adverse impacts for ecosystems and human systems. The Earth heat inventory provides a measure of the Earth energy imbalance (EEI) and allows for quantifying how much heat has accumulated in the Earth system, as well as where the heat is stored. Here we show that the Earth system has continued to accumulate heat, with 381±61 ZJ accumulated from 1971 to 2020. This is equivalent to a heating rate (i.e., the EEI) of 0.48±0.1 W m−2. The majority, about 89 %, of this heat is stored in the ocean, followed by about 6 % on land, 1 % in the atmosphere, and about 4 % available for melting the cryosphere. Over the most recent period (2006–2020), the EEI amounts to 0.76±0.2 W m−2. The Earth energy imbalance is the most fundamental global climate indicator that the scientific community and the public can use as the measure of how well the world is doing in the task of bringing anthropogenic climate change under control. Moreover, this indicator is highly complementary to other established ones like global mean surface temperature as it represents a robust measure of the rate of climate change and its future commitment. We call for an implementation of the Earth energy imbalance into the Paris Agreement's Global Stocktake based on best available science. The Earth heat inventory in this study, updated from von Schuckmann et al. (2020), is underpinned by worldwide multidisciplinary collaboration and demonstrates the critical importance of concerted international efforts for climate change monitoring and community-based recommendations and we also call for urgently needed actions for enabling continuity, archiving, rescuing, and calibrating efforts to assure improved and long-term monitoring capacity of the global climate observing system. The data for the Earth heat inventory are publicly available, and more details are provided in Table 4.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

From the BBS Science article above:
View attachment 779528

From that ESSD study
Abstract
The Earth climate system is out of energy balance, and heat has accumulated continuously over the past decades, warming the ocean, the land, the cryosphere, and the atmosphere. According to the Sixth Assessment Report by Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this planetary warming over multiple decades is human-driven and results in unprecedented and committed changes to the Earth system, with adverse impacts for ecosystems and human systems. The Earth heat inventory provides a measure of the Earth energy imbalance (EEI) and allows for quantifying how much heat has accumulated in the Earth system, as well as where the heat is stored. Here we show that the Earth system has continued to accumulate heat, with 381±61 ZJ accumulated from 1971 to 2020. This is equivalent to a heating rate (i.e., the EEI) of 0.48±0.1 W m−2. The majority, about 89 %, of this heat is stored in the ocean, followed by about 6 % on land, 1 % in the atmosphere, and about 4 % available for melting the cryosphere. Over the most recent period (2006–2020), the EEI amounts to 0.76±0.2 W m−2. The Earth energy imbalance is the most fundamental global climate indicator that the scientific community and the public can use as the measure of how well the world is doing in the task of bringing anthropogenic climate change under control. Moreover, this indicator is highly complementary to other established ones like global mean surface temperature as it represents a robust measure of the rate of climate change and its future commitment. We call for an implementation of the Earth energy imbalance into the Paris Agreement's Global Stocktake based on best available science. The Earth heat inventory in this study, updated from von Schuckmann et al. (2020), is underpinned by worldwide multidisciplinary collaboration and demonstrates the critical importance of concerted international efforts for climate change monitoring and community-based recommendations and we also call for urgently needed actions for enabling continuity, archiving, rescuing, and calibrating efforts to assure improved and long-term monitoring capacity of the global climate observing system. The data for the Earth heat inventory are publicly available, and more details are provided in Table 4.

The red means it's extra hot.

 

[EMH]

The red means it's extra hot.

jalepeno hot?


All that FUDGE and


NO BREAKOUT IN CANES


ho hum

Anytime the climate "scientists" are "alarmed" just hit SNOOZE and go back to sleep, nothing doing...

 

[Crick]

jalepeno hot?

The numbers are there. The report is fully accessible. No pay wall.

All that FUDGE and

What fudge is that?

NO BREAKOUT IN CANES

What is a "breakout in canes" and who has predicted that such a thing would happen?

ho hum

Anytime the climate "scientists" are "alarmed" just hit SNOOZE and go back to sleep, nothing doing...

How about food scientists? How about medical scientists? How about people studying car safety? How about doctors and pediatricians? Do you ignore all of them?

 

[jc456]

Remember Billy Boy's 22 January claim that the oceans were devoid of excess heat and there would be no El Nino in the foreseeable future?

Recent, rapid ocean warming ahead of El Niño alarms scientists

There’s growing concern that the oceans are heating up quickly – and scientists are unsure of the implications.

www.bbc.com

and the study on which this is based

Heat stored in the Earth system 1960–2020: where does the energy go?

Abstract. The Earth climate system is out of energy balance, and heat has accumulated continuously over the past decades, warming the ocean, the land, the cryosphere, and the atmosphere. According to the Sixth Assessment Report by Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change...

essd.copernicus.org

I wonder if he needs a do-over.

Where are all the canes? More heat more canes

More heat more evaporation

 

[Crick]

Where are all the canes? More heat more canes

More heat more evaporation

The increase in heat content has increased the average storm intensity.

 

[EMH]

What is a "breakout in canes" and who has predicted that such a thing would happen?

LMFAO!!!


Since there is no breakout in canes, there is now a denial that was ever predicted...

Hurricanes growing fiercer with global warming

news.mit.edu

And for the next 11 years, not one single Cat 3+ hit the US coast, which is a 250 year record of LACK OF CANES....


NEXT!!!!!

 

[jc456]

The increase in heat content has increased the average storm intensity.

no it hasn't, that's absurd. None. Not fking one. here.

Most Extreme Tropical Cyclones

www.nhc.noaa.gov

 

[jc456]

The increase in heat content has increased the average storm intensity.

The Myth That Hurricanes Are Getting Worse (Because of Climate Change)

Despite what you may have heard, climate change is not actually causing more hurricanes—activity has actually been decreasing slightly since 1900, data from the American Meteorological Society show. That is only half of the story, however.

fee.org

https://twitter.com/miltimore79?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1436336549151531011%7Ctwgr%5Ee77a9f59f717972da9ad45a945e0859f45f6ca8c%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ffee.org%2Farticles%2Fthe-myth-that-hurricanes-are-getting-worse-because-of-climate-change%2F

 

[Crick]

The Myth That Hurricanes Are Getting Worse (Because of Climate Change)

Despite what you may have heard, climate change is not actually causing more hurricanes—activity has actually been decreasing slightly since 1900, data from the American Meteorological Society show. That is only half of the story, however.

fee.org

https://twitter.com/miltimore79?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1436336549151531011%7Ctwgr%5Ee77a9f59f717972da9ad45a945e0859f45f6ca8c%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ffee.org%2Farticles%2Fthe-myth-that-hurricanes-are-getting-worse-because-of-climate-change%2F

All below from Global Warming and Hurricanes – Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Figure 1: Atlantic basin hurricane power dissipation index based on observations (black) and two alternative statistical model-based historical hindcasts and
future projections (blue and orange). The top model (orange) uses tropical Atlantic SSTs alone, while the bottom model (blue) uses SSTs variations in the
tropical Atlantic relative to the tropical mean SST. Source: Vecchi et al. (2008)

1. Summary Statement
Two frequently asked questions on global warming and hurricanes are the following:

• What changes in hurricane activity are expected for the late 21st century, given the pronounced global warming scenarios from IPCC models?
• Have humans already caused a detectable increase in Atlantic hurricane activity or global tropical cyclone activity?

The IPCC AR6 presents a strong body of scientific evidence that it is unequivocal that humans have caused the earth’s climate to warm, with a likely human contribution of 0.8 to 1.3 degrees Celsius to global mean temperature since the late 1800s. But what does this anthropogenic global warming mean for Atlantic hurricane activity, or global tropical cyclone activity? Here, we address these questions, starting with those conclusions where we have relatively more confidence. The main text of this web page gives more background discussion. “Detectable” change here will refer to a change that is large enough to be clearly distinguishable from the variability due to natural causes. Our main conclusions are:

Likelihood Statements​

The terminology here for likelihood statements follows these conventions for the assessed likelihood of an outcome or result:

• Very Likely: > 90%,
• Likely: > 66%
• More Likely Than Not (or Better Than Even Odds) > 50%
• Sea level rise – which human activity has very likely been the main driver of since at least 1971 according to IPCC AR6 – should be causing higher coastal inundation levels for tropical cyclones that do occur, all else assumed equal.
• Tropical cyclone rainfall rates are projected to increase in the future (medium to high confidence) due to anthropogenic warming and accompanying increase in atmospheric moisture content. Modeling studies on average project an increase on the order of 10-15% for rainfall rates averaged within about 100 km of the storm for a 2 degree Celsius global warming scenario.
• Tropical cyclone intensities globally are projected to increase (medium to high confidence) on average (by 1 to 10% according to model projections for a 2 degree Celsius global warming). This change would imply an even larger percentage increase in the destructive potential per storm, assuming no reduction in storm size. Storm size responses to anthropogenic warming are uncertain.
• The global proportion of tropical cyclones that reach very intense (Category 4 and 5) levels is projected to increase (medium to high confidence) due to anthropogenic warming over the 21st century. There is less confidence in future projections of the global number of Category 4 and 5 storms, since most modeling studies project a decrease (or little change) in the global frequency of all tropical cyclones combined.

For the above tropical cyclone projections, the IPCC AR6 generally concluded there was high confidence as compared to medium-to-high confidence in the WMO assessment. Additional research was published between the reports, which can affect confidence levels. Also, confidence levels for assessment statements can vary between authors within a given report.

• In terms of detection and attribution, much less is known about human contributions to hurricane/tropical cyclone activity changes to date, compared to the case for global mean temperature. Recent findings include:
  • In the northwest Pacific basin, observations show a poleward shift in the latitude of maximum intensity of tropical cyclones. This change is assessed to be detectable (i.e., not explainable by internal variability alone) with medium confidence (IPCC AR6) or low-to-medium confidence (WMO Task Team report).
  • One study finds an increase in the fraction of tropical cyclone intensity estimates of at least Category 3 intensity both globally and in the Atlantic basin, over the past four decades. These observed changes have not been confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing. The global increase was assessed to be detectable (i.e., not explainable by internal variability alone) with medium confidence by IPCC AR6.
  • Analyses of rapid intensification of tropical cyclones indicate an observed increase in the probability of rapid intensification (1982-2017) which is highly unusual compared to one climate model’s simulation of internal multidecadal climate variability, and thus is a possibly emerging detectable anthropogenic change. The increase is consistent in sign with the model’s simulated long-term response to anthropogenic forcing.
  • There is increasing evidence from modeling studies at GFDL/NOAA and the UK Met Office/Hadley Centre (UKMO) that the increase in tropical storm frequency in the Atlantic basin since the 1970s has been at least partly driven by decreases in aerosols from human activity and volcanic forcing. Natural variability or changes in Saharan dust emissions may also have contributed to recent changes. The recent GFDL and UKMO studies do not imply that the increase in Atlantic tropical storm frequency since the 1970s will continue into the future: these same models project future decreases in Atlantic tropical storm frequency in response to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.
  • There is evidence for a slowing of tropical cyclone propagation speeds over the continental U.S. over the past century, but these observed changes have not yet been confidently linked to anthropogenic climate change.
  • There is no strong evidence of century-scale increasing trends in U.S. landfalling hurricanes or major hurricanes, although by some measures, U.S. landfalling tropical cyclone activity for 2004-2010 was the strongest in the records since the late 1800s. Similarly for Atlantic basin-wide hurricane frequency (after adjusting for observing capabilities), there is not strong evidence for an increase since the late 1800s in hurricanes, major hurricanes, or the proportion of hurricanes that reach major hurricane intensity.
• In summary, it is premature to conclude with high confidence that human-caused increases in greenhouse gases have caused a change in past Atlantic basin hurricane activity that is outside the range of natural variability, although greenhouse gases are strongly linked to global warming. Some possible emerging human influences on past tropical cyclone activity were summarized above. These include, for the Atlantic, recent increases in rapid intensification probability, aerosol-driven changes in hurricane activity, and increases in extreme precipitation in some regions. At the global scale, increased intensities and fraction of tropical cyclone observations at high intensity are examples, along with a poleward shift of the latitude of maximum tropical cyclone intensity in the Northwest Pacific basin. Human activities may have already caused other changes in tropical cyclone activity that are not yet clearly apparent due to the small magnitude of these changes compared to estimated natural variability, or due to observational limitations.

 

[EMH]

There is fudge and there is data.

The worst decade for hurricanes is the 1940s..

The DATA...

U.S. Hurricane Strikes by Decade

And the last time a Cat 5 put 180+ mph gusts on Martha's Vineyard was 1938, which is why homO and Michael Robinson bought beachfront property with money from Chinese and Ukrainian kickbacks...


NO BREAKOUT IN CANE ACTIVITY = NO OCEAN WARMING

 

[jc456]

• There is evidence for a slowing of tropical cyclone propagation speeds over the continental U.S. over the past century, but these observed changes have not yet been confidently linked to anthropogenic climate change.
• There is no strong evidence of century-scale increasing trends in U.S. landfalling hurricanes or major hurricanes, although by some measures, U.S. landfalling tropical cyclone activity for 2004-2010 was the strongest in the records since the late 1800s. Similarly for Atlantic basin-wide hurricane frequency (after adjusting for observing capabilities), there is not strong evidence for an increase since the late 1800s in hurricanes, major hurricanes, or the proportion of hurricanes that reach major hurricane intensity.

How does this prove your position?

 

[jc456]

How does this prove your position?

abu afak , you agree crick is posting fake news?

 

[Anomalism]

abu afak , you agree crick is posting fake news?

Abu Afak believes what climate scientists are saying. Why do you care what he thinks? He's opposite your position.

 

[jc456]

Abu Afak believes what climate scientists are saying. Why do you care what he thinks? He's opposite your position.

Why do you care if I care or not?

You realize that’s irony right?

 

[Anomalism]

Why do you care if I care or not?

You realize that’s irony right?

Its just weird that you would seek validation from somebody that thinks AGW is happening.

 

[Crick]

How does this prove your position?

I was simply informing you what the actual position of mainstream climate science was regarding the effect of global warming on huricanes. I still do not know what you all mean by a "breakout" in hurricanes, but, as you just saw, there is NO prediction of increased numbers of storms, rather the average intensity was predicted to increase and it has.

 

[Crick]

There is fudge and there is data.

The worst decade for hurricanes is the 1940s..

The DATA...

U.S. Hurricane Strikes by Decade

And the last time a Cat 5 put 180+ mph gusts on Martha's Vineyard was 1938, which is why homO and Michael Robinson bought beachfront property with money from Chinese and Ukrainian kickbacks...


NO BREAKOUT IN CANE ACTIVITY = NO OCEAN WARMING

My god are you STUPID. Why would anyone rely on such an observation to judge ocean warming when you can simply LOOK AT THE FUCKING TEMPERATURE.

 

[EMH]

LOOK AT THE FUCKING TEMPERATURE.

Except your heroes never let us look at the DATA. Instead they FUDGE it and post color charts you cut and paste all day... and bill the taxpayer for them...

How do hurricanes form?

oceanservice.noaa.gov

If there really was WARMING in the oceans, we WOULD have more and bigger canes. We do NOT....