if that happened on that basis , from numbers i be looking it all come down to ohio as r be on 262 at this stage and d on 260. That be amazing election drama but we see if that happens.
RCP electoral map: Obama 201, Romney 191
- Thread starter toomuchtime_
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JoeB131
Diamond Member
A lot of wishful thinking about IA and NV.
Iowa probably won't go for Romney because they've never liked the guy. Too many evangelicals, to start with.
Nevada, doubtful.
I also think we are starting to look at the Romney bubble bursting. Three new polls today show Obama retaking the lead. And tomorrow, Mitt's got to talk to some of that 47% of moochers...
skookerasbil
Platinum Member
Decker........Im talking about the 15 or so nuts on this board. When you come browse in here and there are people who see the landscape 180 degrees from the rest of the country, thats a mental case.
The 15 or so board members who are still convinced Obama dominated the first debate, for example..........and proclaiming that on a political forum. Or somebody promoting themselves as a conservative and ranting about the bliss of far left ideology and thinking they are fooling people. Its not at all unlike somebody walking down the middle of main street stark naked shaking a bananna at people and talking about the end of the world. When you wander far, far off the reservation...............
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you make a very good point. you were very fair with it. Anybody that from either side behaves in non logical way deserves calling out. Whether someone saying obama wrongly won the first debate or calling some liberal a socialist or someone conservative a far righg wing person.
Decker........Im talking about the 15 or so nuts on this board. When you come browse in here and there are people who see the landscape 180 degrees from the rest of the country, thats a mental case.
in end like you said it like a mad person on street screaming and shounting. We have a place for that in london . It called speakers corner and it full of people allowed to rant and rave without any logic at all.
to be fair iowa to close to call. voted bush in 2004 and obama in 2008. so could go either way, In terms of nevanda i think obama has edge but romney according to journalists started going after that hard so obama better be careful their.
Millions of Americans saw the real Romney, unfiltered by the Liberal Media Bias machine, and decided they liked him.
well its true adverts can distort someone view of people. In the end it not who more likeable as to who do better job.
No doubt romney was far better in first debate then obama and if same thing happens in next two debates he won the election .
JakeStarkey
Diamond Member
- Aug 10, 2009
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Obama is down to about 231 votes but Romney has not risen above 191. That bothers me.
Dr.Traveler
Mathematician
- Aug 31, 2009
- 3,948
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- 190
It's fun looking at the electoral map. With McCain and Obama, you knew before hand that the results of Pennsylvania and Virginia would tell you the election. If Obama carried both, the night was over (which he did).
This time, I think we won't have an idea who won until Ohio comes in. That's problematic, as Ohio ALWAYS has a lawsuit or three to keep polling districts open past the normal hours.As the everyone knows that state will decide things, I bet no one calls Ohio early either.
Past Ohio, the next state that I think will be the indicator is Wisconsin. If Romney does carry Wisconsin on election night I'd go to bed fairly certain he was going to win. If Obama carries it, who knows?
obama has to win wiscosin. it been a traditonal blue state. fail to win that and even if he wins ohio he loses. He has to win both deep down. Ohio though could be deciding state but that depends if election still close in polls up to election day.
for it to get to that stage president needs to have good debate peformances coming up. otherwise romney will pull away
it very close at the moment but president must not underpeform in the debates again. if he does then romney will pull away in lot of swing states.
Dr.Traveler
Mathematician
- Aug 31, 2009
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Yeah, my general feeling is that if Romney carries Wisconsin, Obama is probably done. Mathematically he can win without it, but it's a lot harder. Plus, Obama has led there all year, a loss there is a signal that the campaign was in real trouble on election day.
I agree, a lot is riding on tomorrow night's debate. If Obama tanks again, then this will probably give the Romney campaign the momentum it needs to actually take the lead in the electoral college. At this point, Romney is closing the gaps, but Obama is still winning. An Obama win tomorrow will slow, or maybe even stop, the momentum and preserve Obama's now razor thin leads in the swing states.
very good points. i think obama has to win traditional locked in blue states of pa,mi,wi to have a chance. loses any of them and its over deep down. if he win all three of them and ohio he got a chance.
i think if romney dominates debate again then the election is over. he pull out in clear in polls and the college and it be hard for president to have time to recover.
if obama can tie the debate then nothing changes and it close election. if he in unlikletybut think event wins it then he can keep close edge ahead of romney
all pressure on president. Romney got very little.
Dr.Traveler
Mathematician
- Aug 31, 2009
- 3,948
- 652
- 190
Obama will not lose Pennsylvania and Michigan unless the campaign completely collapses. If on election night Pennsylvania goes Red, you should all go to bed. The only reason to stay up is if you want to see what a complete shellacking in the Electoral College looks like and you are too young to remember how decisively Reagan won his Re-election.
What's likely to hurt in the long run is the fact that it now looks like Obama is losing Virginia. Virginia was trending blue and was looking like it might even be slipping into a safe "Leans Blue" or maybe even "Safe Blue" category. If Obama wins and loses Virginia, he's going to face a lot of criticism behind closed doors. That will make the 2016 election VERY hard for the Democrats.
Should Romney dominate Obama in the debates again, this is over. I doubt that happens though. I'm predicting at the very least a tie.
What's likely to hurt in the long run is the fact that it now looks like Obama is losing Virginia. Virginia was trending blue and was looking like it might even be slipping into a safe "Leans Blue" or maybe even "Safe Blue" category. If Obama wins and loses Virginia, he's going to face a lot of criticism behind closed doors. That will make the 2016 election VERY hard for the Democrats.
Should Romney dominate Obama in the debates again, this is over. I doubt that happens though. I'm predicting at the very least a tie.
candycorn
Diamond Member
You're right about Pennsylvania. If Romney wins PA; it's over.
You're wrong, I think, about the debates. These second and third debates are not going to do much. Romney got a bump in the first one because he was on stage with the President and he didn't embarrass himself. But subsequent "bumps" aren't going to come unless there is a gaffe by either gentleman.
Missourian
Diamond Member
I concur.
Having Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania in play makes Romney's path to victory more likely, but the outcome is still too close to call.
I would be interested to hear from folks living in those states to get their feelings based on first hand observation.
Based on my first hand observations, my feeling is Iowa and Missouri are both firmly Romney states.
JakeStarkey
Diamond Member
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PA is not in play. If WI goes Red, I think OH will also, and that will be the game for Romney.
AceRothstein
Gold Member
- Sep 8, 2012
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I won't worry about Romney winning PA or WI until he actually leads a poll in either state.
Dr.Traveler
Mathematician
- Aug 31, 2009
- 3,948
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Yeah, that's why all this talk about Romney winning is kinda moot. He has some momentum, but if it won't push him over the top then that's the game for Obama.
JakeStarkey
Diamond Member
- Aug 10, 2009
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The polls have tightened up because American trust in the forcefulness of Obama's leadership is at question here. Either he stands up to Romney or he loses. It's that simple.
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