Problem with bringing back Manafacturing jobs

[C_Clayton_Jones]

Professional Services are better paying jobs than manufacturing and it is what US is actually good at.... US might run a lot of Trade deficits in Goods. They run surpluses in Professional services

Exactly.

Trump is stuck in the 19th century.

 

[alang1216]

Hi all,

Trump is talking about bringing back manufacturing jobs but there is a problem...

America has a huge manufacturing labor shortage—and its education system is nowhere close to plugging the gap

The textile industry has a 20% worker shortage, while metal fabrication industry expects to be 400,000 workers short by 2024. There isn't a good plan to find them.

fortune.com

Understanding America’s Labor Shortage: The Most Impacted Industries

American businesses are creating hundreds of thousands of jobs each month, yet a significant number of positions still remain unfilled, especially in the professional and business service sector.

www.uschamber.com

View attachment 1099220

So the Manufacturing industry has 3.2% unemployment... 3% is considered full employment in most countries...


View attachment 1099219

So it is services that are struggling to fill vacancies most..

Manufacturing Doesn't Pay Well Nor Make Much Money - So Why Fixate On It?

One of the oddities of the current political and economic scene is that all too many people are fixated on manufacturing. We should "bring manufacturing back" or something. Quite why is very difficult to understand. There seems to be some idea that making things in huge sheds is a well [...]

www.forbes.com

Professional Services are better paying jobs than manufacturing and it is what US is actually good at.... US might run a lot of Trade deficits in Goods. They run surpluses in Professional services

View attachment 1099221

Trump Trade Deficits are Goods only and doesn't account for Services which is just stupid... Services jobs are the jobs people want, better paid and better conditions...

When my grandmother first came to the US, she got a job sewing in a sweatshop. Long hours, dangerous work, low pay. If we can't import our underwear, that is the type of manufacturing we'll do and we'll pay $10 a pair for them. The future will stink.

 

[Nobody911]

I'm not going to provide any solutions for dealing with labor force shortages. It's the Trump administration's job, not mine.

In 2025, the United States is experiencing labor shortages across various industries, with manufacturing being particularly affected. Here's an overview of the labor force shortages by industry:

## Manufacturing

• Issue: Manufacturing faces significant labor shortages, with approximately 20.6% of plants citing insufficient labor or skills as a constraint on production capacity as of Q3 2024[2].
• Impact: The sector is expected to need about 3.8 million new employees by 2033, but nearly half of these roles are at risk of going unfilled due to skills gaps and talent attraction challenges[1].
• Skills Gap: More than 54% of current manufacturing workers will need additional training by 2030 due to changing core skills[1].

## Construction

• Issue: The construction industry needs to attract about 439,000 new workers in 2025 to meet demand[4].
• Impact: Failure to attract these workers could lead to increased labor costs and reduced construction volume[4].

## Food Manufacturing

• Issue: This sector is particularly vulnerable to labor shortages, especially if there are mass deportations, as it relies heavily on immigrant labor[2].
• Impact: Labor shortages could affect raw material availability and production capacity[2].

## Leisure and Hospitality

• Issue: High quit rates, often above 4%, are common in this industry due to traditionally lower wages and fully in-person work[6].
• Impact: Despite high hiring rates, retaining workers remains challenging[6].

## Education and Health Services

• Issue: This sector consistently has a high number of job openings[6].
• Impact: The demand for skilled workers in these fields continues to outpace supply.

## Professional and Business Services

• Issue: Also experiences a high number of job openings across various occupations[6].
• Impact: The broad range of roles within this sector makes it challenging to fill all positions.

In sum, labor shortages in the U.S. in 2025 are widespread, affecting industries like manufacturing, construction, food manufacturing, leisure and hospitality, education and health services, and professional and business services. Addressing these shortages will require strategies to attract and retain workers, improve skills training, and enhance industry attractiveness.

sources:
[1] https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/04/indiana-college-manufacturing-talent-skills-gap/
[2] Labor shortages remain an ongoing concern in many parts of U.S. manufacturing
[3] 2025 Manufacturing Industry Outlook
[4] News Releases | ABC: Construction Industry Must Attract 439,000 Workers in 2025
[5] David Larson: Do we really need to ‘bring back manufacturing’? - Salisbury Post
[6] Understanding America’s Labor Shortage: The Most Impacted Industries
[7] January 2025 Labor Market Review: The Talent Shortage Persists
[8] The State of the Manufacturing Workforce in 2025
[9] https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

 

[1srelluc]

And you still haven’t explained why we can’t fill the manufacturing openings we have NOW….

Yeah, so some DuPont factory by you has no openings, great. But go online and actually search for factory jobs. They’re all over the place. And they’re not fake. And it’s not a conspiracy.

You might want to investigate on-line "job openings".....A full 1/3 are faked to make it look like the on-line service is better than what it is.

 

[braalian]

You might want to investigate on-line "job openings".....A full 1/3 are faked to make it look like the on-line service is better than what it is.

Still, I stand by the assertion that no one who wants a factory job is having any difficulty finding one if they’re actually looking

No, entry level factory work doesn’t pay wages to support a middle class lifestyle, and never will again. Those days are gone forever. Tariffs will do nothing to change that

 

[1srelluc]

Still, I stand by the assertion that no one who wants a factory job is having any difficulty finding one if they’re actually looking

No, entry level factory work doesn’t pay wages to support a middle class lifestyle, and never will again. Those days are gone forever. Tariffs will do nothing to change that

Maybe the sun has set on your part of the world but we are doing fine in my AO.

 

[braalian]

Maybe the sun has set on your part of the world but we are doing fine in my AO.

Not sure what you mean by this

Unemployment is low and there’s a surplus of manufacturing jobs that remain unfilled, despite companies advertising openings

There’s literally no other way to interpret that set of data than to say anyone who wants a factory job would have one by now if they truly wanted one

 

[DonGlock26]

In what universe are the companies gonna raise wages?

Supply and demand.

 

[DonGlock26]

So raise prices to pay for this... Other countries can do it for less... Are you saying that US consumers have to pay more for less?

So reduce the workforce by more. So your solution to labour shortage is to round up labour and export them....
How does that solve the problem?

What is that going to do... Nearly anyone who can work is working... US is 1% away from full employment....

There is a narrative that there is a bunch of people sitting at home choosing to be poor...

Do you know a lot of these people? I don't..

Or have less billionaires because they can't use slave labor anymore.

Thus raising the wages of American workers who are in demand again.

People will have to work and support themselves.

 

[DonGlock26]

Can you explain how doing ANY of these things helps the US economy?????

Given that one of the goals of Project 2025 is to eliminate the minimum wage, and Trump hasn't even mentioned raising wages, please explain what Trump is doing to raise wages.

You also have said NOTHING about how deporting immigrants is going to help the US economy. In fact, it's already having the opposite effect. Your spending billions to remove people from your country with no positive economic impact as a reward.

You're reducing GDP, and wasting millions of dollars and lying about the impact of immigration on your economy.

You have the least amount of socials spending for welfare and social assistance, of any first world country, and you keep complaining about the amount you're spending. Perhaps if you spent enough to actually HELP people, your costs would go down.

Invest in education, health and housing for your people, instead of locking people up, throwing people out, and wasting your money in doing so.

How did we ever get on without Chinese slave labor or millions of illegal aliens?

 

[CowboyTed]

OK....
Let's look at what you said. (And most of it is true)

First you have to recognize the MME or money multiplier effect. Those 1,000 jobs directly employed by Novartis create 3-4 times the number of jobs by indirectly providing goods and services to those 1,000 people. (Drug company jobs are great jobs....almost government like in performance required but higher paying)

Yep... Plant like that would be the main plant is a town of 25,000 and suurrounding area. That's it... The bit jobs are in R & D and they will not materialise without the education to back them.
They are not as secure as Government jobs and if they go or reduce you have to have multiple competitors in the area...

Secondly,
Yes, they have desired the new plants as those in India and China have become increasingly untenable for the long term. (Monetary policies and conditions). Sloppiness has resulted in many explosions and fires and loss of facilities.

Novartis produces drugs in those countries and that isn't really going to change... The main production sites will stay there especially there generic divisions...
I don't think ye get it, manufacture of drugs is not where the money is... It is in the R & D, IT, Clinical trails....

Thirdly,
Trump's election success was an almost foregone conclusion (and subsequent tarrifs) for over a year. Especially when the proof of election fraud became more than just rumors and Biden's mental collapse was very evident on national television. Trump's re-election and tarrif announcement and subsequent trade war has been a foregone conclusion for most of the business world. (Despite Democrat hype to the contrary) The reality of it has only confirmed and cemented and sped up plans already made.

Explain how the markets collapsed... Money guys didn't believe it... That is why Trump backed down.

4th,
Drug distribution is not done the same as parcel post or Amazon does it. You will have deliveries by separate drivers and vans(or trucks) to deliver them. Some will require climate control but more importantly security as drugs are expensive. Both the ingredients coming in and the ingredients going out.

Drug distribution has been sorted out decades ago... It isn't a bulky product... International distribution is well structured and mostly done by air freight. Same ways drugs are moved from US to Europe and Europe to US... Logistics of that is suimple...

Novartis most profitable treatment is about taking the white cells from an individual's body, bring to a lab (thousands miles away, sometimes), treat them, and put them back in the same body. Now that is more challenging logistically and Novartis does that today.

4th,
China once held the only star anise groves....they no longer do. So the production of Tamiflu and other drugs dependant on Star Anise are no longer tied to China. This has been in the planning for decades. New groves of Star Anise have been planted long ago after having to purchase 80% of Chinese groves (at inflated prices and taxes) over 30 years ago...maybe 40 now....I'm getting old as I speak.

????
How much Ozempic is produced in US compared to how much is used?

 

[JohnDB]

The largest problem with bringing back manufacturing to the USA is the amount of Electricity available. TVA has the potential of a little surplus....but not enough.

The 2 new chip plants going into Arizona are facing the EXACT same issues. Where they are going to get the juice is beyond me. Texas electricity (had a huge surplus) is sold to California at premium prices because they refuse to generate their own.

And power generation requires water....lots of water for the steam and heat exchangers.

Arkansas, New Mexico, and Colorado could generate more....maybe Oklahoma too.

Dunno....the solar plant in the Nevada desert went bankrupt. (So much for green energy)

In Georgia, there are areas no more subdivisions can be built because there is not enough available power. They need the housing but there is insufficient power available on the grid to power them.

So....
The EPA has been effectively muzzled and restrained. But that still is not enticing power producers to invest.
I have yet to hear of any new generating plants in the works.

 

[JohnDB]

Coming online this year is only 7.7 GW vx 8.7 last year.

We truly need double digits of GW to come online. Like 15-20 every year. And not nuclear power either. NG is just fine....so is coal including clean coal tech. Ampharesis tech of coal has been around since WW2. No sense in not putting it to work on the vast stores of yellow coal we have.

 

[Admiral Rockwell Tory]

It's not a bad thing when emoyers have a hard time finding employees.

Your gears are grinding, old timer!

 

[Admiral Rockwell Tory]

The largest problem with bringing back manufacturing to the USA is the amount of Electricity available. TVA has the potential of a little surplus....but not enough.

The 2 new chip plants going into Arizona are facing the EXACT same issues. Where they are going to get the juice is beyond me. Texas electricity (had a huge surplus) is sold to California at premium prices because they refuse to generate their own.

And power generation requires water....lots of water for the steam and heat exchangers.

Arkansas, New Mexico, and Colorado could generate more....maybe Oklahoma too.

Dunno....the solar plant in the Nevada desert went bankrupt. (So much for green energy)

In Georgia, there are areas no more subdivisions can be built because there is not enough available power. They need the housing but there is insufficient power available on the grid to power them.

So....
The EPA has been effectively muzzled and restrained. But that still is not enticing power producers to invest.
I have yet to hear of any new generating plants in the works.

That tells me you have no concept of power losses over long transmission distances.

 

[JohnDB]

That tells me you have no concept of power losses over long transmission distances.

Usually around and just under 2%.
Distribution frequency is at 60 hz....

But transmission frequency is at 15hz....skin effect is not a material factor. Voltage is. Longer distances get put out at 500 KVA....local transmission is usually 62.

I'm a commercial/industrial electrician. I've built switchyards...worked at generating plants, cleaned more insulators in freezing weather on top of a boom lift than I'd like to remember.

And you are a what?

 

[Hellokitty]

And you still haven’t explained why we can’t fill the manufacturing openings we have NOW….

Yeah, so some DuPont factory by you has no openings, great. But go online and actually search for factory jobs. They’re all over the place. And they’re not fake. And it’s not a conspiracy.

There's an entire industry set up to supply temp manufacturing workers.

 

[Thinker101]

In what universe are the companies gonna raise wages?

In the universe where companies are looking for employees.

 

[JohnDB]

There's an entire industry set up to supply temp manufacturing workers.

The jobs available are available for a REASON.
They suck and pay nothing. Of course they are low skill....sometimes.

I've seen ads for electricians that want the moon in certifications and licenses but do not want to get even up to the going rate for a journeyman industrial electrician. (Offering $15/hr when everyone is making $22&up)
Those ads go unanswered and they whine saying "no one wants to work" . Because they don't want to pay! Why would I quit a $22/hr job yo grab a $15/hr job? Especially when I'm in line for $30/hr position.

 

[JohnDB]