Predict the Electoral Vote

[dblack]

All Harris has to do is to take the Rust Belt. tRump needs to take almost all of the swing states. Law of average says that tRump cannot take almost all the swing states. Your thesis is incorrect.

The law of averages is very poorly enforced.

 

[Missourian]

All Harris has to do is to take the Rust Belt. tRump needs to take almost all of the swing states. Law of average says that tRump cannot take almost all the swing states. Your thesis is incorrect.

Trump pretty much has Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina sewed up.

He only needs one of the three rust belt states.

And he is leading in every swing state in aggregate...

2025 Latest Election Polls and Political Insights | RealClearPolling

Explore up-to-date 2025 election polls on RealClearPolling. Gain valuable insights into the evolving political landscape and stay ahead of the latest trends.

www.realclearpolling.com

Harris is in a deep hole, and after that fox news interview, I suspect it's going to get deeper.

 

[RhodyPatriot]

Fun fact:

When you realize Trump is going to become the first Republican to win the popular vote since 1988?

Questioning the "electoral vote" outcome becomes entirely irrelevant.

 

[WelfareQueen]

Fun fact:

When you realize Trump is going to become the first Republican to win the popular vote since 1988?

Questioning the "electoral vote" outcome becomes entirely irrelevant.

Actually, Bush won the popular vote in 2004.

 

[RhodyPatriot]

Actually, Bush won the popular vote in 2004.

My bad.

 

[Sparker]

Polls don't indicate how much the swing state governments lean on the scales.

Harris could become such an embarrassment in the last few days that election officials decide "Nope, we're done, we're not sticking our necks out for this."

In a straight up unrigged election, I see Trump getting around 300.

 

[Vrenn]

Polls don't indicate how much the swing state governments lean on the scales.

Harris could become such an embarrassment in the last few days that election officials decide "Nope, we're done, we're not sticking our necks out for this."

In a straight up unrigged election, I see Trump getting around 300.

In case you haven't noticed, tRump is trying to get the fix in early.

 

[JohnDB]

 

[there4eyeM]

Duopoly: 100% of electoral votes.

 

[BluesLegend]

Trump pretty much has Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina sewed up.

He only needs one of the three rust belt states.

And he is leading in every swing state in aggregate...

View attachment 1027661

View attachment 1027650

View attachment 1027652


View attachment 1027653

View attachment 1027654

View attachment 1027655

View attachment 1027656

2025 Latest Election Polls and Political Insights | RealClearPolling

Explore up-to-date 2025 election polls on RealClearPolling. Gain valuable insights into the evolving political landscape and stay ahead of the latest trends.

www.realclearpolling.com

Harris is in a deep hole, and after that fox news interview, I suspect it's going to get deeper.

Those are all within the margin of Dem cheating.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Predict the Electoral Vote​

America's enemies....445.

America...0.

 

[Shareprofit]

Those are all within the margin of Dem cheating.

Just remind me how do Dems cheat?

 

[sealybobo]

At the moment, being lousy at predicting elections, I've got the swing states going this way:

Trump
Nevada
Arizona
Georgia
Pennsylvania

Harris
North Carolina
Wisconsin
Minnesota

So:
Trump 271
Harris 267

You missed Michigan. Going for Kamala

She’s gotta be flawless while he can be lawless

 

[Hum Dinger]

The height of Trump's political career was winning the 2016 election. It's all been downhill for him since.

The current polls are pure BULLSHIT.

Harris will win all battleground states except possibly North Carolina, but Ohio and perhaps one or two others will flip to Harris.

Trump is the most reviled Presidential candidate in history. Expect a low turnout of Trump supporters and a record turnout of Harris supporters.

 

[dblack]

Shitty Candidates: 538
Good Candidates: 0

 

[Missouri_Mike]

The height of Trump's political career was winning the 2016 election. It's all been downhill for him since.

The current polls are pure BULLSHIT.

Harris will win all battleground states except possibly North Carolina, but Ohio and perhaps one or two others will flip to Harris.

Trump is the most reviled Presidential candidate in history. Expect a low turnout of Trump supporters and a record turnout of Harris supporters.

WTF makes you think that? Day drinking?

 

[Hum Dinger]

WTF makes you think that? Day drinking?

If you believe the polls, then you must believe that Trump had no path to victory in 2016.

Polls are BULLSHIT. 90% of them have a predetermined political bias.

Trump wants the polls to look like he has a chance of winning, so his minions won't get discouraged and stay at home. The Dems want the polls to be close to scare the daylights out of Liberals, so they get off their asses and vote.

Clinton lost the 2016 election because millions of people who would have voted for her were so sure that Trump had no chance of winning that they didn't bother to vote.

The current polls have everyone excited, and this will probably be the largest turnout in history by far. That's a good thing.

 

[Missouri_Mike]

If you believe the polls, then you must believe that Trump had no path to victory in 2016.

Polls are BULLSHIT. 90% of them have a predetermined political bias.

Trump wants the polls to look like he has a chance of winning, so his minions won't get discouraged and stay at home. The Dems want the polls to be close to scare the daylights out of Liberals, so they get off their asses and vote.

Clinton lost the 2016 election because millions of people who would have voted for her were so sure that Trump had no chance of winning that they didn't bother to vote.

The current polls have everyone excited, and this will probably be the largest turnout in history by far. That's a good thing.

I know two things for sure.
1- democrats get over estimated in the polls.
2- Republicans get under estimated in polls.

And I think I know one more thing.
The more people that vote the better the Republican odds.

 

[dblack]

I know two things for sure.
1- democrats get over estimated in the polls.
2- Republicans get under estimated in polls.

And how do you "know" that?

And I think I know one more thing.
The more people that vote the better the Republican odds.

Or that?

 

[para bellum]

Ruh ro. Early voting favors democrats?

Arizona Early Voting Update - 10.29
Arizona has cast 1.63 million ballots today, representing roughly 50% of the expected vote.

Republicans - 683,281

Democrats - 554,492

Others - 392,617

Arizona is another state where independents are nowhere close to pulling their weight. In 2020, they finished with a 68% turnout rate, and they won't get anywhere near that number this year.
Having followed the nationwide voter registration changes closely for the last 2 years and seeing many new independent registrations (across the country), it would appear the vast majority are not interested in 2024 participation.



A look at AZ voter frequency scores shows that Democrats are trailing Republicans by a couple of points in the zero, one, and two buckets, turning out more of their 3/3 voters.

It's not an excellent combination for available votes down the stretch, so Republicans are likely to outvote Democrats by 300,000+.

Like Nevada, new independents just aren't tuned in.