Oversampling of POLITICAL Polls!!!!

[Zander]

What should the actual breakdown of each poll be?

It should closely reflect the actual party identification numbers....the polls that I am looking at are oversampling Democrats by double digits.....it's comical!!

Demoralized as Hell, The poll the media isn't talking about edition » Datechguy's Blog

 

[Zander]

What should the actual breakdown of each poll be?

How about LIKELY VOTERS with 35% Democrats and 31% Republicans? That gap of 4 points is less than half the 2008 gap,

so all those who insist the enthusiasm for Obama will be less this time, consider yourselves placated:

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/84/159/2147483694/31a5695e-db0d-4272-b292-b9640f4ff7fb.pdf

Obama up by 3, and leading or tied in every category surveyed re: domestic and foreign policy.

Ouch.

2008 was a fantasy election for Democrats. They will not even come close to that level of enthusiasm or turnout....You seem to forget that Obama has a record now... and it stinks!

This election will be far closer to 2010- where Reps had a 1.3% advantage. But please, don't let reality ruin your fantasy!

 

[American Horse]

What should the actual breakdown of each poll be?

It should reflect the percentage of likely voters in each state. Rasmussen just said (to Megyn Kelly) on FNC that would result in a slight lead by Romney in a nationwide poll.

He is being called a shill for the Republican Party by commenters on the left.

His results are consistently more accurate all through an election, and not just in the final days when polls close on actual results at the polls.

 

[NYcarbineer]

What should the actual breakdown of each poll be?

His results are consistently more accurate all through an election
It should reflect the percentage of likely voters in each state. Rasmussen just said (to Megyn Kelly) on FNC that would result in a slight lead by Romney in a nationwide poll.

He is being called a shill for the Republican Party by commenters on the left.

, and not just in the final days when polls close on actual results at the polls.

lol, how can you know an election poll in September is accurate, since you don't have actual results to compare to?

 

[American Horse]

What should the actual breakdown of each poll be?

His results are consistently more accurate all through an election
It should reflect the percentage of likely voters in each state. Rasmussen just said (to Megyn Kelly) on FNC that would result in a slight lead by Romney in a nationwide poll.

He is being called a shill for the Republican Party by commenters on the left.

, and not just in the final days when polls close on actual results at the polls.

lol, how can you know an election poll in September is accurate, since you don't have actual results to compare to?

You really can't, and that is the rub; polls are given far too much weight from what their true value is. But it, polling as grown into a huge industry, and fills a lot of expensive media time, with little more value to the public than that of making news.

The real value of polls is, and should be for the politicans. They want the truest reflective poll, a poll that does not lie to them.