Seymour Flops
Diamond Member
The Walker-Warnock race and the Lake-Hobbs Race will convince them that backing by Trump does not ensure a victory. They have that right. But they may also be convinced that a Trump primary run does not assure a victory for Trump.
It is not impossible for Trump to lose the primary in 2024. But, if the Republicans over-estimate the probability of someone else defeating him, then several of them will want to vie for the chance to run against Joe BIden. Then we will have a repeat of the 2020 primary, with Trump winning a large plurality, and gaining ground each time a hopeless candidate drops out, and their voters go to Trump as a second choice.
Republican predictions of Trump’s vulnerability will amount to a self-defeating prophesy, rather than a self-fulfilling one.
Going after DeSantis was a blunder for Trump. Doing it so soon before the election magnified it. The GOP old guard has one chance: Unite behind DeSantis in a way that will not annoy Trumpers. Say that Trump served us well, but DeSantis would have two terms, Trump will better serve as a mentor, etc.
They will not do that. The old guard’s ego is as large as Trump’s, they just hide it better. None of them will throw their support to DeSantis until their own election chances become obviously hopeless.
It is not impossible for Trump to lose the primary in 2024. But, if the Republicans over-estimate the probability of someone else defeating him, then several of them will want to vie for the chance to run against Joe BIden. Then we will have a repeat of the 2020 primary, with Trump winning a large plurality, and gaining ground each time a hopeless candidate drops out, and their voters go to Trump as a second choice.
Republican predictions of Trump’s vulnerability will amount to a self-defeating prophesy, rather than a self-fulfilling one.
Going after DeSantis was a blunder for Trump. Doing it so soon before the election magnified it. The GOP old guard has one chance: Unite behind DeSantis in a way that will not annoy Trumpers. Say that Trump served us well, but DeSantis would have two terms, Trump will better serve as a mentor, etc.
They will not do that. The old guard’s ego is as large as Trump’s, they just hide it better. None of them will throw their support to DeSantis until their own election chances become obviously hopeless.