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Obama 80% Likely To Win, Given Fundamentals, Ground Game

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Obama 80% Likely To Win, Given Fundamentals, Ground Game


With twenty-four days to go until the final votes are cast, it is clear that the Obama-Romney contest has narrowed drastically. The number of states that are “in play” remains small, and the number of states that could realistically decide this election is smaller still. Taking a close look at data from the last week and reading it against what we know from 2010 gives us a window into how narrow this contest is, where it will be decided, and likely how. As I will explain, I am more bullish on President Obama’s likelihood of winning re-election than others caught up in the national trackers, Nate Silver’s plummeting assessments of the President’s prospects, or the gloomy post-debate narratives (Andrew Sullivan being the undisputed champion of that particular raindance). So here – with close attention to polls and what they do and do not show – is why I see President Obama’s chance of winning re-election at roughly 80% today.

1. Parsing Romney’s Post-Debate Bounce

Even the President’s most ardent supporters now readily concede that Mitt Romney won the October 3 debate in Denver. (Indeed, some of the President’s most ardent supporters can speak of little else, as this election approaches its finish.) The measure of the bounce is found in a comparison of data drawn from mid-September (when the President’s convention bounce, lengthened by focus on Romney’s Libya and 47% comments) and from the period October 4-11, comprising the week following Romney’s strong showing in Denver.

This bounce was substantial, but not uniformly distributed across all states. While I first thought it would be worth two points nationally, given the rigidity of polling in this cycle, my prediction understated the force of Romney’s gains. In Gallup, the registered voter bounce was from Obama +6 to Obama +3 (though the fact that Gallup uses a seven day rolling average implies that the bounce was at least four points, given that the long period softens peaks and valleys). In Rasmussen, Obama swung from +2 to -2 – a four point decline. In the RAND Corporation tracker, mysteriously omitted from the RealClearPolitics average, but which Nate Silver utilizes in his data set, Obama fell from +8 to +2 (a six point decline), and in the IBD/TIPP tracker, which began on October 1, Obama fell briefly to -5, likely representing at least a six point decline from Obama’s peak standing to that lowest point (though IBD bracketed that five point deficit with days showing Obama down 2). Accordingly, the national decline in Obama’s status, picking his highest peak and lowest valley, was more like 4-6 points nationally.
 

Stephanie

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:cow:

I guess if dag blog says so

lol
 

OKTexas

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I think your setting yourself up for a big disappointment.
 

Missourian

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80% likely to win "Worst President of the Nuclear Age", wresting the title from Jimmy Carter.
 

Firehorse

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I believe that given all the absolute, indisputable facts on the matter that the media will, with 100% accuracy, declare that Obama has won the 2nd debate .... I'm actually surprised that they haven't reported his win yet, it's not like them to hold on to a 'Pro-Obama' story like that for so long
 

decker

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I believe that given all the absolute, indisputable facts on the matter that the media will, with 100% accuracy, declare that Obama has won the 2nd debate .... I'm actually surprised that they haven't reported his win yet, it's not like them to hold on to a 'Pro-Obama' story like that for so long
well doubt they will do that if second debate goes as first debate and romney win with ease.

also worrying for liberals less good news in usa today poll . just shown that romney leads obama nationally 51% to 45%. bad news their.
 

decker

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Obama 80% Likely To Win, Given Fundamentals, Ground Game


With twenty-four days to go until the final votes are cast, it is clear that the Obama-Romney contest has narrowed drastically. The number of states that are “in play” remains small, and the number of states that could realistically decide this election is smaller still. Taking a close look at data from the last week and reading it against what we know from 2010 gives us a window into how narrow this contest is, where it will be decided, and likely how. As I will explain, I am more bullish on President Obama’s likelihood of winning re-election than others caught up in the national trackers, Nate Silver’s plummeting assessments of the President’s prospects, or the gloomy post-debate narratives (Andrew Sullivan being the undisputed champion of that particular raindance). So here – with close attention to polls and what they do and do not show – is why I see President Obama’s chance of winning re-election at roughly 80% today.

1. Parsing Romney’s Post-Debate Bounce

Even the President’s most ardent supporters now readily concede that Mitt Romney won the October 3 debate in Denver. (Indeed, some of the President’s most ardent supporters can speak of little else, as this election approaches its finish.) The measure of the bounce is found in a comparison of data drawn from mid-September (when the President’s convention bounce, lengthened by focus on Romney’s Libya and 47% comments) and from the period October 4-11, comprising the week following Romney’s strong showing in Denver.

This bounce was substantial, but not uniformly distributed across all states. While I first thought it would be worth two points nationally, given the rigidity of polling in this cycle, my prediction understated the force of Romney’s gains. In Gallup, the registered voter bounce was from Obama +6 to Obama +3 (though the fact that Gallup uses a seven day rolling average implies that the bounce was at least four points, given that the long period softens peaks and valleys). In Rasmussen, Obama swung from +2 to -2 – a four point decline. In the RAND Corporation tracker, mysteriously omitted from the RealClearPolitics average, but which Nate Silver utilizes in his data set, Obama fell from +8 to +2 (a six point decline), and in the IBD/TIPP tracker, which began on October 1, Obama fell briefly to -5, likely representing at least a six point decline from Obama’s peak standing to that lowest point (though IBD bracketed that five point deficit with days showing Obama down 2). Accordingly, the national decline in Obama’s status, picking his highest peak and lowest valley, was more like 4-6 points nationally.
i hope your right but not to postive. he behind in gallup national, raumsen nationally and usa today nationally. not very postive signs at the moment but hope i am wrong.
 

TruthSeeker56

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Obama 80% Likely To Win, Given Fundamentals, Ground Game


With twenty-four days to go until the final votes are cast, it is clear that the Obama-Romney contest has narrowed drastically. The number of states that are “in play” remains small, and the number of states that could realistically decide this election is smaller still. Taking a close look at data from the last week and reading it against what we know from 2010 gives us a window into how narrow this contest is, where it will be decided, and likely how. As I will explain, I am more bullish on President Obama’s likelihood of winning re-election than others caught up in the national trackers, Nate Silver’s plummeting assessments of the President’s prospects, or the gloomy post-debate narratives (Andrew Sullivan being the undisputed champion of that particular raindance). So here – with close attention to polls and what they do and do not show – is why I see President Obama’s chance of winning re-election at roughly 80% today.

1. Parsing Romney’s Post-Debate Bounce

Even the President’s most ardent supporters now readily concede that Mitt Romney won the October 3 debate in Denver. (Indeed, some of the President’s most ardent supporters can speak of little else, as this election approaches its finish.) The measure of the bounce is found in a comparison of data drawn from mid-September (when the President’s convention bounce, lengthened by focus on Romney’s Libya and 47% comments) and from the period October 4-11, comprising the week following Romney’s strong showing in Denver.

This bounce was substantial, but not uniformly distributed across all states. While I first thought it would be worth two points nationally, given the rigidity of polling in this cycle, my prediction understated the force of Romney’s gains. In Gallup, the registered voter bounce was from Obama +6 to Obama +3 (though the fact that Gallup uses a seven day rolling average implies that the bounce was at least four points, given that the long period softens peaks and valleys). In Rasmussen, Obama swung from +2 to -2 – a four point decline. In the RAND Corporation tracker, mysteriously omitted from the RealClearPolitics average, but which Nate Silver utilizes in his data set, Obama fell from +8 to +2 (a six point decline), and in the IBD/TIPP tracker, which began on October 1, Obama fell briefly to -5, likely representing at least a six point decline from Obama’s peak standing to that lowest point (though IBD bracketed that five point deficit with days showing Obama down 2). Accordingly, the national decline in Obama’s status, picking his highest peak and lowest valley, was more like 4-6 points nationally.
i hope your right but not to postive. he behind in gallup national, raumsen nationally and usa today nationally. not very postive signs at the moment but hope i am wrong.

You are not wrong. :badgrin:
 

blastoff

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Oops...courseofhistory has to give yet another negative report to the Comrades back at HQ that folks here are still laughing off the propaganda. Hey, sales is a tough occupation; you have to put up with a lot of rejection.
 

decker

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i hope your right but not to postive. he behind in gallup national, raumsen nationally and usa today nationally. not very postive signs at the moment but hope i am wrong.

You are not wrong. :badgrin:
well even worse news for obama today. he behind four points in pew and gallup poll.
Sometimes you just sense when election not going your way. this is. Conservative i think heading for victory unless something amazing happens tonight.
 

Missourian

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Obama 80% likely to win...


...a medium fry playing Mcdonalds Monopoly Game!


What the large print giveth, the small print taketh away.
 

decker

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Obama 80% likely to win...


...a medium fry playing Mcdonalds Monopoly Game!


What the large print giveth, the small print taketh away.
in uk we just had itv news report by robert moore saying it make or break for obama tonight. obama supoorter was interviewed saying that it his last chance to make race close and if he is blows it will not get another one.
 

Missourian

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Obama 80% likely to win...


...a medium fry playing Mcdonalds Monopoly Game!


What the large print giveth, the small print taketh away.
in uk we just had itv news report by robert moore saying it make or break for obama tonight. obama supoorter was interviewed saying that it his last chance to make race close and if he is blows it will not get another one.

The American media understands this...all Obama will need to accomplish in this debate to be hailed as the winner by the liberal press here is to show up with pants on and remain upright throughout the entire debate.
 

decker

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Obama 80% likely to win...


...a medium fry playing Mcdonalds Monopoly Game!


What the large print giveth, the small print taketh away.
in uk we just had itv news report by robert moore saying it make or break for obama tonight. obama supoorter was interviewed saying that it his last chance to make race close and if he is blows it will not get another one.

The American media understands this...all Obama will need to accomplish in this debate to be hailed as the winner by the liberal press here is to show up with pants on and remain upright throughout the entire debate.
but not to sure about that. same thing was same about biden yet cnn had paul ryan as the winner.

if obama get beaten up again, in my view this election is over and gop romney has won.
 

Katzndogz

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The media tried to fashion a win for obama in the first debate. They just couldn't do it. obama's performance was too horrible.

If obama doesn't win decisively in tonight's debate, this election is over. The obamabots can start rioting immediately. obama can't hold his own. It can't be a draw.

Since obama is doing the same thing now that caused him to lose the first debate, it would take something highly unusual to have him pull it off. Maybe Candy Crowley can do it for him if he can't do it himself. But, that means he still will lose.
 

there4eyeM

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We can hope the Rmoney is humiliated enough that people start to think of an alternative to both.

Vote other!
 

decker

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The media tried to fashion a win for obama in the first debate. They just couldn't do it. obama's performance was too horrible.

If obama doesn't win decisively in tonight's debate, this election is over. The obamabots can start rioting immediately. obama can't hold his own. It can't be a draw.

Since obama is doing the same thing now that caused him to lose the first debate, it would take something highly unusual to have him pull it off. Maybe Candy Crowley can do it for him if he can't do it himself. But, that means he still will lose.
you could be right. another tie or defeat and election is over. conservative on here can be very happy and romney will be the next president. It be just how big his victory will be then.
 

decker

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We can hope the Rmoney is humiliated enough that people start to think of an alternative to both.

Vote other!
sadly another candidates on other parties never given a chance. so sadly us voters stuck with only two real choices in terms of who can win.
 

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