*NOAA Full Of Crap About 14 Hurricanes*

chesswarsnow

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Sorry bout that,



1. I call bullshit on the NOAA, they screwed up last year, with all *The Sky Is Falling Hurricane Predictions*.
2. Slowest hurricane year on record, I think this years hurricane totals will be low.
3. Errrr, we shall see who is right by fall, ofcourse I will WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Link&Sample:

Up to 14 hurricanes predicted for Atlantic storm season - Yahoo! News


"WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Atlantic storm season could produce as many as 14 hurricanes this year, the U.S. government's top climate agency predicted on Thursday, setting the scene for potentially the most intense season since 2005.

In its first forecast for the storm season that begins next Tuesday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast 14 to 23 named storms, with 8 to 14 developing into hurricanes, making it one of the most active ever.

Three to 7 of those could be major Category 3 or above hurricanes, with winds of more than 110 miles per hour (177 km per hour), the agency said, echoing earlier predictions from meteorologists for a particularly severe season that could disrupt U.S. oil, gas and refinery operations in the Gulf of Mexico.

In addition to the risk that major hurricanes can pose to about one-quarter of U.S. oil production and more than a 10th of natural gas output offshore in the Gulf, this year's storms threaten to complicate efforts to combat the environmental disaster of BP's gushing oil well."




Regards,
SirJamesofTexas
 
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chesswarsnow

chesswarsnow

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Sorry bout that,




NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA Issues Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, Encourages Preparedness

Where is this "sky is falling" forecast from last year? If you want to have an opinion on this subject you are going to have to read more then a couple of paragraphs. Do you want to make any friendly wagers on this?


1. These forecasters of doom and gloom are effecting the economy, futures on commodities went up because of thier gloomy predictions.FT.com / Commodities - Commodities surge after hurricane warning
2. I wonder if they invest right before they make these sorted predictions?
3. Sure lets wager, whats your poison?
4. Friendly ofcourse,...:lol:
5. I predict two hurricanes that will amount to more than a fart in a whirlwind this year.
6. That will miss USA.



Regards,
SirJamesofTexas
 

Mr. Peepers

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Zander

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Retarded Monkeys could throw random darts at a crap table and probably come up with a better forecast than these bozos.....

Long term weather forecasts are notoriously unreliable. Well, unless you're AL GORE!!!!
 

Modbert

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You DO know that we are in the El Nino AND La Nina weather pattern since the end of last year & it will last through late summer or fall of this year. Remember the crazy snows in DC? These patterns can make for very unpredictable weather and storms. I certainly wouldn't discount the threat of hurricanes due to this alone.

The resurgence of El Niño means that 2010 could yet be the hottest year on record | UK news | The Observer
Or the fact my state became the Lost City of Atlantis for a week.
 

hortysir

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Hurricanes, by definition, are unpredictable.

But, living down here and feeling the unusually early heat and rise in water temperature, I'd tend to agree.

I'll be prepared, regardless.....
 

jason83

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Sorry bout that,




NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA Issues Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, Encourages Preparedness

Where is this "sky is falling" forecast from last year? If you want to have an opinion on this subject you are going to have to read more then a couple of paragraphs. Do you want to make any friendly wagers on this?


1. These forecasters of doom and gloom are effecting the economy, futures on commodities went up because of thier gloomy predictions.FT.com / Commodities - Commodities surge after hurricane warning
2. I wonder if they invest right before they make these sorted predictions?
3. Sure lets wager, whats your poison?
4. Friendly ofcourse,...:lol:
5. I predict two hurricanes that will amount to more than a fart in a whirlwind this year.
6. That will miss USA.



Regards,
SirJamesofTexas
If they were that business savvy they would be investing their time into financial modeling not weather models. Are you not looking at the scientific data at all(sst, nao, etc.)? When you say two hurricanes for a year where the outlier is 2005 year when it comes to sea surface temperatures..your just fuckin with me right? I will never post on this forum again if that happens and that is not even a bet. If they reach the 14 total storms, You can never post anything that has to do with science ever again. Vice versa for me. Is that good?
 
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chesswarsnow

chesswarsnow

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Sorry bout that,




Sorry bout that,




NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA Issues Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, Encourages Preparedness

Where is this "sky is falling" forecast from last year? If you want to have an opinion on this subject you are going to have to read more then a couple of paragraphs. Do you want to make any friendly wagers on this?


1. These forecasters of doom and gloom are effecting the economy, futures on commodities went up because of thier gloomy predictions.FT.com / Commodities - Commodities surge after hurricane warning
2. I wonder if they invest right before they make these sorted predictions?
3. Sure lets wager, whats your poison?
4. Friendly ofcourse,...:lol:
5. I predict two hurricanes that will amount to more than a fart in a whirlwind this year.
6. That will miss USA.



Regards,
SirJamesofTexas
If they were that business savvy they would be investing their time into financial modeling not weather models. Are you not looking at the scientific data at all(sst, nao, etc.)? When you say two hurricanes for a year where the outlier is 2005 year when it comes to sea surface temperatures..your just fuckin with me right? I will never post on this forum again if that happens and that is not even a bet. If they reach the 14 total storms, You can never post anything that has to do with science ever again. Vice versa for me. Is that good?



1. But can you say for sure they didn't invest into the commodities right before they leak these gloomy predictions?
2. I think some one should police this, these Al Gore wannabee's will do anything for a buck, hook or crook, *Show me tha money!*
3. No I am serious, my *Gut Hurricane Detector* says, *Just Two*.
4. The second one will get sorta close to a USA border, the first will miss USA entirely.
5. Other than that we will see many tropical deppressions, which will cause a certain amount of depression to the AlGorians.:lol:
6. So your comfortable with self banning when you lose huh?
7. I don't know about that, I will have to give it some thought,.....:cool:


Regards,
SirJamesofTexas
 
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chesswarsnow

chesswarsnow

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Sorry bout that,


1. Well we are one whole month into this, and now we are seeing a *Tropical Depression*!!!!:lol::lol::lol:
2. Wow thats so terrible!!!!!:eek::eek::eek:
3. Not one *Hurricane*, I would self fire if I was that wrong!!!


Regards,
SirJamesofTexas
 

william the wie

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More and bigger hurricanes due to the oil spill are quite likely. So when was the prediction finalized?
 

Rat in the Hat

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More and bigger hurricanes due to the oil spill are quite likely. So when was the prediction finalized?
I don't know much about hurricane science, so could you tell me how the spill could lead to more and bigger hurricanes? I really would like to know more about this.

There have been some hurricanes where the remnants have traveled up to my area. If a hurricane were to suck up some of the oil, do you think it would still be in the storm by the time it came up to southern Illinois?
 

Polk

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Hurricanes, by definition, are unpredictable.

But, living down here and feeling the unusually early heat and rise in water temperature, I'd tend to agree.

I'll be prepared, regardless.....
Specific location is unpredictable. The probability of occurrence is not.
 

Polk

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And for the record, NOAA's prediction last year was not overblown.

They projected 9-14 named storms, 4-7 hurricanes, and 1-3 major hurricanes (a pretty light season, not "the sky is falling").
The actual numbers were 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes.
 

Polk

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And if we want to look at how NOAA performed in five years before that:

2008
NOAA: 12-16 named storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 2-5 major hurricanes
Actual: 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes

2007
NOAA: 13-17 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes, 3-5 major hurricanes
Actual: 15 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes

2006
NOAA: 13-16 named storms, 8-10 hurricanes, 4-6 major hurricanes
Actual: 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes

2005
NOAA: 12-15 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, 3-5 major hurricanes
Actual: 28 named storms, 15 hurricanes, 7 major hurricanes

2004
NOAA: 12-15 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes, 2-4 major hurricanes
Actual: 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes
 

jason83

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Sorry bout that,


1. Well we are one whole month into this, and now we are seeing a *Tropical Depression*!!!!:lol::lol::lol:
2. Wow thats so terrible!!!!!:eek::eek::eek:
3. Not one *Hurricane*, I would self fire if I was that wrong!!!


Regards,
SirJamesofTexas
I wish there was a way to put money on your 2 hurricane forecast.
 

Polk

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Sorry bout that,


1. Well we are one whole month into this, and now we are seeing a *Tropical Depression*!!!!:lol::lol::lol:
2. Wow thats so terrible!!!!!:eek::eek::eek:
3. Not one *Hurricane*, I would self fire if I was that wrong!!!


Regards,
SirJamesofTexas
While hurricane season starts the first of June, it really doesn't pick up until July/August. 2005 was the most active year in recorded history, and the first hurricane didn't form until July 4.
 

hortysir

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More and bigger hurricanes due to the oil spill are quite likely. So when was the prediction finalized?
I don't know much about hurricane science, so could you tell me how the spill could lead to more and bigger hurricanes? I really would like to know more about this.

There have been some hurricanes where the remnants have traveled up to my area. If a hurricane were to suck up some of the oil, do you think it would still be in the storm by the time it came up to southern Illinois?
Theoretically, the spill could raise the temperature of the Gulf water.
Warmer water = more convection = more violent hurricane
:cool:
 

Political Junky

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And if we want to look at how NOAA performed in five years before that:

2008
NOAA: 12-16 named storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 2-5 major hurricanes
Actual: 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes

2007
NOAA: 13-17 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes, 3-5 major hurricanes
Actual: 15 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes

2006
NOAA: 13-16 named storms, 8-10 hurricanes, 4-6 major hurricanes
Actual: 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes

2005
NOAA: 12-15 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, 3-5 major hurricanes
Actual: 28 named storms, 15 hurricanes, 7 major hurricanes

2004
NOAA: 12-15 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes, 2-4 major hurricanes
Actual: 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes
Damn good track record, thanks.
 

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