*NOAA Full Of Crap About 14 Hurricanes*

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

1. I call bullshit on the NOAA, they screwed up last year, with all *The Sky Is Falling Hurricane Predictions*.

Last year? Try the last five years. Every year since Katrina they've said it is going to be the worse hurricane season ever.

 

[william the wie]

More and bigger hurricanes due to the oil spill are quite likely. So when was the prediction finalized?

I don't know much about hurricane science, so could you tell me how the spill could lead to more and bigger hurricanes? I really would like to know more about this.

There have been some hurricanes where the remnants have traveled up to my area. If a hurricane were to suck up some of the oil, do you think it would still be in the storm by the time it came up to southern Illinois?

The spill burns heat the water causing the precondition for hurricane formation and strengthening. It only takes a degree or two of water heating to double the strength of a hurricane.

 

[Polk]

1. I call bullshit on the NOAA, they screwed up last year, with all *The Sky Is Falling Hurricane Predictions*.

Last year? Try the last five years. Every year since Katrina they've said it is going to be the worse hurricane season ever.

That's demonstrability not true.

 

[Charles_Main]

Sorry bout that,



1. I call bullshit on the NOAA, they screwed up last year, with all *The Sky Is Falling Hurricane Predictions*.
2. Slowest hurricane year on record, I think this years hurricane totals will be low.
3. Errrr, we shall see who is right by fall, ofcourse I will WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Link&Sample:

Up to 14 hurricanes predicted for Atlantic storm season - Yahoo! News


"WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Atlantic storm season could produce as many as 14 hurricanes this year, the U.S. government's top climate agency predicted on Thursday, setting the scene for potentially the most intense season since 2005.

In its first forecast for the storm season that begins next Tuesday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast 14 to 23 named storms, with 8 to 14 developing into hurricanes, making it one of the most active ever.

Three to 7 of those could be major Category 3 or above hurricanes, with winds of more than 110 miles per hour (177 km per hour), the agency said, echoing earlier predictions from meteorologists for a particularly severe season that could disrupt U.S. oil, gas and refinery operations in the Gulf of Mexico.

In addition to the risk that major hurricanes can pose to about one-quarter of U.S. oil production and more than a 10th of natural gas output offshore in the Gulf, this year's storms threaten to complicate efforts to combat the environmental disaster of BP's gushing oil well."




Regards,
SirJamesofTexas

While it is true in the past, especially since Katrina, they have made predictions of doom and gloom that did not pan out, but I think they are prolly right this year.

The pacific has cooled significantly while the Atlantic is hot. A perfect recipe for Lots of Atlantic hurricanes. Which are really nothing more than mother nature getting rid of excess heat.

 

[Toro]

And if we want to look at how NOAA performed in five years before that:

2008
NOAA: 12-16 named storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 2-5 major hurricanes
Actual: 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes

2007
NOAA: 13-17 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes, 3-5 major hurricanes
Actual: 15 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes

2006
NOAA: 13-16 named storms, 8-10 hurricanes, 4-6 major hurricanes
Actual: 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes

2005
NOAA: 12-15 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, 3-5 major hurricanes
Actual: 28 named storms, 15 hurricanes, 7 major hurricanes

2004
NOAA: 12-15 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes, 2-4 major hurricanes
Actual: 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes

Damn good track record, thanks.

One might want to take that bet with chesswarsnow up, even with his clever hurricane forecasting technique and all.

 

[Zander]

And if we want to look at how NOAA performed in five years before that:

2008
NOAA: 12-16 named storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 2-5 major hurricanes
Actual: 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes

2007
NOAA: 13-17 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes, 3-5 major hurricanes
Actual: 15 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes

2006
NOAA: 13-16 named storms, 8-10 hurricanes, 4-6 major hurricanes
Actual: 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes

2005
NOAA: 12-15 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, 3-5 major hurricanes
Actual: 28 named storms, 15 hurricanes, 7 major hurricanes

2004
NOAA: 12-15 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes, 2-4 major hurricanes
Actual: 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes

I don't know what is going to happen with hurricanes and storms and am not afraid to admit it. So tell me what is so remarkable about repeating essentially the same forecast year after year with slight deviations? I can do that......12-5 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes, 2-4 major hurricanes. Please send me a check for a few million, thanks!

 

[chesswarsnow]

Sorry bout that,


Toro wrote:

"One might want to take that bet with chesswarsnow up, even with his clever hurricane forecasting technique and all. "


1. Well I'm not a one to gamble.
2. They predict and so do I.
3. Thier predictions effect the stock markets.
4. And as I said earlier in this thread, some one needs to look into their market manipulations.


Regards,
SirJamesofTexas

 

[Toro]

They don't effect the stock market much.

As your post earlier stated, commodities markets bounced on the news, but those movements are ephemeral. They usually last a day or two, and then the market forgets about it. The market knows that weather forecasting isn't exactly a precise science.

 

[chesswarsnow]

Sorry bout that,


1. Well where are the hurricane"s at?
2. Not one yet!
3. Couple tropical storms.
4. As of now, I'm winning!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Regards,
SirJamesofTexas

 

[R.C. Christian]

Sorry bout that,

NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA Issues Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, Encourages Preparedness

Where is this "sky is falling" forecast from last year? If you want to have an opinion on this subject you are going to have to read more then a couple of paragraphs. Do you want to make any friendly wagers on this?

1. These forecasters of doom and gloom are effecting the economy, futures on commodities went up because of thier gloomy predictions.FT.com / Commodities - Commodities surge after hurricane warning
2. I wonder if they invest right before they make these sorted predictions?
3. Sure lets wager, whats your poison?
4. Friendly ofcourse,...
5. I predict two hurricanes that will amount to more than a fart in a whirlwind this year.
6. That will miss USA.



Regards,
SirJamesofTexas

What makes you qualified to make this supposition?

 

[topspin]

This site is great, uneducated morons vs scientist. Hmm I'll go with the scientist.

 

[chesswarsnow]

Sorry bout that,




QUOTE=R.C. Christian;2583640]

Sorry bout that,

NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA Issues Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, Encourages Preparedness

Where is this "sky is falling" forecast from last year? If you want to have an opinion on this subject you are going to have to read more then a couple of paragraphs. Do you want to make any friendly wagers on this?

1. These forecasters of doom and gloom are effecting the economy, futures on commodities went up because of thier gloomy predictions.FT.com / Commodities - Commodities surge after hurricane warning
2. I wonder if they invest right before they make these sorted predictions?
3. Sure lets wager, whats your poison?
4. Friendly ofcourse,...
5. I predict two hurricanes that will amount to more than a fart in a whirlwind this year.
6. That will miss USA.



Regards,
SirJamesofTexas

What makes you qualified to make this supposition?[/QUOTE]




1. Obvisously I am more qualified than the NOAA.
2. What makes me a better predictor than them?
3. Well its hard to say, but they have no idea in reality how and what will take place, as much as any other person might have some idea, I have an idea too.
4. So I predicted that we would have few, if any hurricanes, and so it is.
5. Words have power, and I'm just showing you and everyone else, how to use that power.
6. I am contridicting what the NOAA is saying, and my words and ideas are stronger than theirs, so to say.
7. Anyway thats the best way to look at it, for those who have no clue as to what I did.


Regards,
SirJamesofTexas

 

[chesswarsnow]

Sorry bout that,

This site is great, uneducated morons vs scientist. Hmm I'll go with the scientist.

1, Moron winning!!!!
2. Scientists losing!!!!!
3. Errr,...you are a liberal, am I right?
4. Always siding with the losers.
5. Motto of a liberal, "Winners bad, Losers good!"


Regards,
SirJamesofTexas

 

[HUGGY]

NOAA Full Of Crap About 14 Hurricanes*


Maybe so..But they were right abouit the invasion of aliens from the planet Tralfamdor.

 

[Neal Asbury]

I fully suspect that have a hat filled with numbers that they reach into.

 

[chesswarsnow]

Sorry bout that,


1. Still no hurricanes.
2. Cuba hasn't even been whacked!
3. This month is almost over, and we've seen nothing yet,.....
4. All summer long nothing coming at USA or even near USA,...hehehehe,......


Regards,
SirJamesofTexas

 

[Charles_Main]

You DO know that we are in the El Nino AND La Nina weather pattern since the end of last year & it will last through late summer or fall of this year. Remember the crazy snows in DC? These patterns can make for very unpredictable weather and storms. I certainly wouldn't discount the threat of hurricanes due to this alone.

The resurgence of El Niño means that 2010 could yet be the hottest year on record | UK news | The Observer

What makes no sense to me is the last time we were in an El Nino there were few Hurricanes in the Atlantic. Yet they know we are in El Nino again and predict a big season.

They are always going to predict more than we get. Most of the time anyways. Erring on the side of caution.

 

[chesswarsnow]

Sorry bout that,


1. Still no hurricanes hit USA this year!
2. I should be getting paid for this, not them bastards!


Regards,
SirJamesofTexas

 

[saveliberty]

Guess they are using the same data one uses to predict death by global warming.

 

[JScott]

Sorry bout that,


1. Still no hurricanes hit USA this year!
2. I should be getting paid for this, not them bastards!


Regards,
SirJamesofTexas

The report said for the Atlantic not the USA.