Or maybe those other polls are suffering from confirmation bias.
Again, I think that Romney's support is like the Emperor's new clothes. Everyone says he's the "only credible candidate", and people believe that.
Until someone screams out "the EMPEROR'S NAKED!"
If one thinks that all those other polls are biased except the only poll that agrees with one's own very deeply held beliefs, then someone is exhibiting massive confirmation bias, and its not the pollsters.
FTR Intrade still has Romney at a 70% chance of winning the nomination whereas Newt has jumped up to 12%, which is a bargain at this point IMHO. If I were inclined to bet on this thing - which I am not - I might buy the Newt contract and sell the Mitt contract, at least for a trade for when Newt gets up to 25 and Romney down to 50.
If you aren't inclined to bet on it, why do you keep quoting it.
Again, 2008 was supposed to be Rudy vs. Hillary, and that didn't happen...
I'll admit, I don't know what will happen. Rationally, Romney is a piece of two-faced shit with a crazy religion, and the Republicans would be absolutely crazy to nominate him.
But the problem is, the GOP is saddled with this Washington Establishment that long ago forgot what real Americans are like.
I only go by one poll. I call it the Joe Poll.
When I've been enthusiastic about a candidate, he wins.
When I've been indifferent about a candidate, he loses.
Was very enthusiastic about Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush. They won.
Didn't care for Bob Dole or John McCain that much. They lost. Still voted for them, but didn't even stay up to watch the results. Didn't really care that much.
Liked Bush's dad in 1988, but had lost confidence in him by 1992. (Still voted for him because Perot was crazy and Clinton was slimy.)
Romney would be a candidate I would be outright hostile to. So he'll probably lose.