Newt is correct on this
history suggests that the party out of power gains, on average, 35 House seats and 2 Senate seats
but in the 2018 midterms you can bank on Republicans actually picking up AT LEAST 2 seats in the Senate; just because of the way the map lies for elections
dems have to defend 25 seats, 10 of which are in red states that Trump won - republicans have only 8 seats up this time
my prediction is that we gain 4 seats in the Senate
the House? like I said, Newt is correct; things are shaping up favorably for Republicans
primaries did not go well for democrats; especially in California, which was key to their hopes of taking over the House
the economy is strong, and democrats have insisted in damaging their own chances at every turn (support for MS 13 and Hamas; NFL kneeling - watch for protests this fall; no agenda other than WE HATE TRUMP; etc...)
dems did get good news in PA where they were able to redraw district lines based on a court order
but almost everywhere else; congressional districts are mostly favorable to the GOP; efforts to win State Houses right ahead of the last census were mostly successful and give republicans a built in advantage
my prediction for the House is that dems pick up between 12 - 14 seats; well short of the 24 they need to win control of the chamber
Newt Gingrich: The red wave is growing
quote:
Over the past few days, four building blocks have fallen into place that strengthen the case for a red wave of Republican victories in the November midterm elections, wiping out Democratic hopes for a blue wave.
Three of these building blocks are Republican-favoring political developments in what would normally be considered safe, blue states.
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quote:
First, New Jersey’s U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez is a Democrat who has been deeply weakened by charges of corruption. He was tried in a long, highly-publicized trial that ended in mistrial. The government decided not to prosecute again, but the news reports about the case had already shed light on some of Menendez’s actions, which were pretty indefensible.
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quote:
Second, the California primary put Republican John Cox in the general election for governor running against Democratic Lt. Gov. (and former mayor of San Francisco) Gavin Newsom.
The difference in statewide Republican turnout with a GOP candidate on the ballot for governor has been estimated at 23 percent. This turnout will make the governor’s race competitive and could be the difference between winning and losing a number of House seats.
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quote:
Third, Minnesota Democrats went crazy last Saturday, and their state convention was taken over by the hard left (yes, there are Minnesota activists to the left of the already liberal state’s Democratic Party). The result was that the repudiated Attorney General decided to run for governor in the primary. That created a vacuum that ultra-left-wing Rep. Keith Ellison decided he would try to fill.
This combination of personality-driven bitterness and ideological extremism has suddenly made Minnesota Democrats vulnerable. Long-time Minnesota analyst Barry Casselman has written shrewdly that former Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty is now likely to be the next governor and that two Democratic House seats are now likely to go Republican (making the possibility of a Democratic House this fall more unlikely).
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TL;DR - muh blue wave ain't happening
Republicans SKRONG
history suggests that the party out of power gains, on average, 35 House seats and 2 Senate seats
but in the 2018 midterms you can bank on Republicans actually picking up AT LEAST 2 seats in the Senate; just because of the way the map lies for elections
dems have to defend 25 seats, 10 of which are in red states that Trump won - republicans have only 8 seats up this time
my prediction is that we gain 4 seats in the Senate
the House? like I said, Newt is correct; things are shaping up favorably for Republicans
primaries did not go well for democrats; especially in California, which was key to their hopes of taking over the House
the economy is strong, and democrats have insisted in damaging their own chances at every turn (support for MS 13 and Hamas; NFL kneeling - watch for protests this fall; no agenda other than WE HATE TRUMP; etc...)
dems did get good news in PA where they were able to redraw district lines based on a court order
but almost everywhere else; congressional districts are mostly favorable to the GOP; efforts to win State Houses right ahead of the last census were mostly successful and give republicans a built in advantage
my prediction for the House is that dems pick up between 12 - 14 seats; well short of the 24 they need to win control of the chamber
Newt Gingrich: The red wave is growing
quote:
Over the past few days, four building blocks have fallen into place that strengthen the case for a red wave of Republican victories in the November midterm elections, wiping out Democratic hopes for a blue wave.
Three of these building blocks are Republican-favoring political developments in what would normally be considered safe, blue states.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
quote:
First, New Jersey’s U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez is a Democrat who has been deeply weakened by charges of corruption. He was tried in a long, highly-publicized trial that ended in mistrial. The government decided not to prosecute again, but the news reports about the case had already shed light on some of Menendez’s actions, which were pretty indefensible.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
quote:
Second, the California primary put Republican John Cox in the general election for governor running against Democratic Lt. Gov. (and former mayor of San Francisco) Gavin Newsom.
The difference in statewide Republican turnout with a GOP candidate on the ballot for governor has been estimated at 23 percent. This turnout will make the governor’s race competitive and could be the difference between winning and losing a number of House seats.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
quote:
Third, Minnesota Democrats went crazy last Saturday, and their state convention was taken over by the hard left (yes, there are Minnesota activists to the left of the already liberal state’s Democratic Party). The result was that the repudiated Attorney General decided to run for governor in the primary. That created a vacuum that ultra-left-wing Rep. Keith Ellison decided he would try to fill.
This combination of personality-driven bitterness and ideological extremism has suddenly made Minnesota Democrats vulnerable. Long-time Minnesota analyst Barry Casselman has written shrewdly that former Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty is now likely to be the next governor and that two Democratic House seats are now likely to go Republican (making the possibility of a Democratic House this fall more unlikely).
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TL;DR - muh blue wave ain't happening
Republicans SKRONG
