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Never-fail prediction system shows 2012 win for Obama

CaféAuLait

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Never-fail prediction system shows 2012 win for Obama

American University professor Allan Lichtman is on a winning streak spanning nearly three decades — one that President Barack Obama might have an interest in seeing Lichtman extend.

Lichtman created a formula that has correctly predicted the winner of each election since 1984, beginning with the reelection of President Ronald Reagan, U.S. News and World Report reported. The formula that predicted Obama's 2008 win is again showing that the incumbent president will win the election, despite the term-low approval rating Obama has been maintaining for past weeks.

“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” Lichtman said.

His model, described in his book The Keys to the White House, relies on 13 "keys" that gauge the performance of the sitting president's party. If six or more of these aspects are in the party's favor, the candidate they present will win.



Never-fail prediction system shows 2012 win for Obama | The Raw Story
 

8537

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With the exception of 2000, a simple system called "using your brain" could probably have successfully determined the winning party for the executive branch since 1984
 

Two Thumbs

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CaféAuLait;4073074 said:
Six trials hardly makes any system "never fail". :lol:

6 in a row is nothing to scoff at.

Apparently it has been six since he made the formula. But it the formula is applied to each presidency prior, it still works.

No scandals?


yeah

What about his family members that are here illegally?

joking it up about 'shovel ready not being so shovel ready'?

A fucking Peace Prize and we are bombing more places the Bush ever considered?
 
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CaféAuLait

CaféAuLait

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CaféAuLait;4073074 said:
6 in a row is nothing to scoff at.

Apparently it has been six since he made the formula. But it the formula is applied to each presidency prior, it still works.

No scandals?


yeah

What about his family members that are here illegally?

joking it up about 'shovel ready not being so shovel ready'?

A fucking Peace Prize and we are bombing more places the Bush ever considered?

That's what I was saying about the scandals. I guess this guy does not think handing weapons to drug cartels is scandal worthy.
 

RDD_1210

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CaféAuLait;4073074 said:
6 in a row is nothing to scoff at.

Apparently it has been six since he made the formula. But it the formula is applied to each presidency prior, it still works.

No scandals?


yeah

What about his family members that are here illegally?

joking it up about 'shovel ready not being so shovel ready'?

A fucking Peace Prize and we are bombing more places the Bush ever considered?

There is a difference between things you want to complain about and a scandal.
 

CrusaderFrank

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Obama's only chance at staying in the WH is to declare martial law
 
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CrusaderFrank

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Love to watch the debate when the topic is illegal immigration and the Republican Candidate turns to Obama and declares that Obama has first hand knowledge of the problem because his Aunt and Uncle have been living here illegally, the Uncle a felon defrauding Social Security and the Aunt jumping ahead of tens of thousands of people to get public housing in Boston.

You think Russert had Obama stuttering?
 

Conservative

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it seems the author did not even wait for the entire term, or even most of it, to be completed before calling it for Obama...

Election 2012: The

Allan Lichtman called the 2012 election for Obama nearly a year ago, with some caveats about how some keys might change.

The 13 Keys to the Presidency

After the midterm election, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the preceding midterm election. (FALSE)

The incumbent-party nominee gets at least two-thirds of the vote on the first ballot at the nominating convention. (TRUE)
Has the official nominating convention for 2012 already taken place, or is he referring to the last one?

The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. (TRUE)

There is no third-party or independent candidacy that wins at least five percent of the vote. (TRUE)
True, but bogus. There never is.

The economy is not in recession during the campaign. (Probably TRUE)
I call bogus and FALSE. We're certainly not recovered enough to truly call the recession over, regardless of what the administrations lackies said.

Real (constant-dollar) per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth for the preceding two terms. (FALSE)

The administration achieves a major policy change during the term, on the order of the New Deal or the first-term Reagan “revolution.” (TRUE)
Major policy change that the vast majority of the voters are not in favor of at this point. I call bogus again, and FALSE.

There has been no major social unrest during the term, sufficient to cause deep concerns about the unraveling of society. (TRUE)
The recent ATF fiasco, in which the head of the ATF has now been 're-assigned'. I rate this one FALSE

There is no broad recognition of a scandal that directly touches the president. (TRUE)

There has been no military or foreign policy failure during the term, substantial enough that it appears to undermine America’s national interests significantly or threaten its standing in the world. (UNCERTAIN)

There has been a military or foreign policy success during the term substantial enough to advance America’s national interests or improve its standing in the world. (FALSE)

The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or is a national hero. (FALSE)

The challenger is not charismatic and is not a national hero. (TRUE)
How can you rate this when there is no set challenger? I call bogus, and UNCERTAIN.

If six or more of these statements are false, the incumbent party loses.

I have 7 false.

See? Two can play nonsense games like this.
 
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uscitizen

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so the republicans are just wasting money running.
I thought conservatives did not waste money?
 

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