My Final Election Prediction

There was no need for links, you laid out a cogent thought-process as to why.

It's not like you're making things up.

The link thing is a cop out most of the time.

We don't need it, when we're talking about facts we can all see.

That said, I agree that Harris will win, as I made my prediction last night on here.

She'll win due to the silent vote, women.

That's why MAGATS like Charlie Kirk lost their crap over that ad featuring women voting not according to their husband's wishes. Angry because it resonates. Resonates because it's true.

As you stated, Republicans have EFFED around and found out w/the ROE thing. Trump's on camera bragging about it. Even if he didn't, he'd still be responsible as he's the one who brought in those rabid MAGA SCOTUS judges who's sole bidding was to get rid of it. All of them lied about it when asked as well.

As I've stated before, ROEVEMBER IS COMING!
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And it's here now, so prepare yourself for Tuesday.
How sad. You and the multitude of women are voting for the right to kill their unborn because giving birth is an inconvenience. The lousy economy doesn't count. Women and children being murdered and raped because of Cumalla's open border is just fine with you. The wars in Israel and Ukraine along with the escalating threats by China and North Korea are of no concern either. There are no words to describe the depth of your idiocy and the harm you are doing to my country.
 
No. Democracy will survive a little longer, as long as Harris wins.

Harris and the Democrats will just have to tolerate you MAGA Nazis playing with your feces in the House and not passing any legislation.
You said “definitely”. So why now are you back pedaling? Hmmm

Typical lying cowardly gender confused leftist
 
Trump has lost a lot of his voters.
I read this post because it was a reply to me, but if you can't post like a normal person, don't bother.

Maybe you have something worth saying, but I don't even try to read your posts- the random bolding just makes me dizzy...
 
I think this is a pretty accurate assessment. I think Harris will win the popular vote by at least 5% - 6% nationally.

Harris' vote total is being underestimated in the polls. The polling models did not predict that 54% or 55% of the voters in the battleground states would be women. Harris is doing better than the polls suggest.

I think Harris will win PA, MI, and WI. I think she also has the edge in NC, GA, and AZ. I think Harris might lose NV, because female turnout is not as strong in that state and NV does not have a large college-educated population and college-educated voters favor Harris.

I will not be surprised if Harris also wins in places like Iowa, Florida, Texas, and Ohio.

If Cruz loses in Texas or Rick Scott loses in FL, then I think the Democrats have a decent opportunity to keep control of the Senate. But the Democrats will definitely win the House.
Why do you assholes even think Harris is qualified? She clearly is not.
 
You said “definitely”. So why now are you back pedaling? Hmmm
You asked two different questions, lightweight dipshit.

Yes, I believe the Democrats will definitely win the House.

No, I'm not going to leave the forum if I'm wrong.
 
Why do you assholes even think Harris is qualified? She clearly is not.
Trump is qualified...talking about people eating pets?? Constantly talking about Hannibal Lecter or Arnold Palmer's cock?

If Trump wasn't born wealthy, he would be in jail or wandering the streets homeless. The imbecile is a mentally ill sociopath with a 5th grade education.

And Harris completely embarrassed Trump during that debate.
 
Trump is qualified...talking about people eating pets?? Constantly talking about Hannibal Lecter of Arnold Palmer's cock?

If Trump wasn't born wealthy, he would be in jail or wandering the streets homeless. The imbecile is a mentally ill sociopath with a 5th grade education.

And Harris completely embarrassed Trump during that debate.
Trump was the president and America prospered. Why do you think he has such a high minority numbers? Because they were getting ahead under Trump and no one was going off to a new war.
 
One way is the negative personalization of the debate

Nixon and Kennedy mostly debated issues with far less personal attacks

Now its the other way around
What? I don’t even know what that is supposed to mean
 
Trump was the president and America prospered. Why do you think he has such a high minority numbers? Because they were getting ahead under Trump and no one was going off to a new war.
You remember what you want to remember. Two things --

1) Trump inherited Obama's excellent economy...an economy that Obama resurrected after 8 years of horrible Bush and the Great Recession.

2) Trump completely mishandled Covid. This country had the largest unemployment rate since the Great Depression when Trump left office in Jan 2021.

These are facts. You're dishonest, a total imbecile, or both.
 
I am not making definitive statements. I have no idea who is going to win. You made a definitive statement. But when push comes to shove you cower.
I'm not cowering. I'm just not going to leave the forum if I'm wrong.

If you don't like it, tough shit.
 

If you were to go looking for one event that shaped recent American politics more than any other — fueling the anger and contention that now feels endemic, eroding the nation’s faith in its leaders, and elevating radical alternatives in their place — the 2008 financial crisis would be a strong contender. It was the point at which America broke down, political consensus went up in smoke, and long-standing assumptions about how society should be organized, and for whose benefit, came under scrutiny.

The clearest expression of this popular discontent came, of course, on the political right with the election of Donald Trump. But the 2008 financial crisis also produced a new strain of populism on the left. Or, rather, it revived an old strain of economic populism that would have been familiar to Democrats of the New Deal era but had fallen dormant in the decades before the crisis, when enthusiasm for regulating financial markets and suspicion of Wall Street banks was pushed to the margins. The crash brought it roaring back and, in so doing, raised a series of bedrock questions: How had the Democratic Party, traditionally the champion of workers, come to identify so strongly with Wall Street? Who made this happen and why? What could be done to return the party to its working-class roots? And who should lead the transition to a new era?

There is a backstory that illuminates the Democratic Party’s embrace of finance in the years leading up to the crash — a story that begins in 1978. At the time, Democrats were still reliable partisans of the New Deal, but the steady economic progress of the American middle class was coming to a turbulent end. Jimmy Carter was president. He was struggling, without much success, to manage an economy buffeted by inflation, oil shocks and recessions — problems for which his party had no answers. A conservative countermovement of business groups and Republican politicians was beginning to gather force. One of history’s critical inflection points arrived that fall, when Wall Street made its first deep incursion into the Democratic Party in a way that would have lasting significance, although it passed mostly unnoticed at the time.

How 1978 Shifted Power In America And Laid The ...

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Talking Points Memo
https://talkingpointsmemo.com › Cafe




Jan 12, 2024 — Beginning in 1978, Democrats, over Jimmy Carter's objection, embraced Wall Street's idea that encouraging “capital formation” was the surest way ...
Congrats Moonglow, you unexpectedly found an acorn

That link was so good I saved it for future study
 
Trump gained 12 million votes from 2016 to 2020 because he had a track record.

If you think he doesn't have enthusiasm among his supporters, I think you haven't watched a Trump rally. I might be underestimating Harris's popularity- I don't watch her rallies either...

In any case, I'm done with polls. We are in the election now and I'm looking at the big-picture metrics.

2024 turnout is on pace for ~135 Million. If that holds, Trump won't need 74 Million to win the popular vote. He's also picked up with the hispanic voters, and hasn't lost ground with the working-class voters.

Low-propensity voters (which includes younger voters and inner-city black voters) are largely on the sidelines. High-propensity voters (the so-called super voters) are turning out as expected.

States that were already 100% mail-in elections before 2020 are on target to hit about 80% of their 2020 turnout. IOW it's shaping up to look a lot more like 2016 than 2020...
Trump is doing much worse with white voters this election, especially white women. The overturning of Roe vs Wade is going to destroy Trump and the GQP Taliban this election.

White women is the biggest voting bloc and Trump cannot win if he is losing or barely winning this voting bloc.

You want to talk about "low propensity voters", that includes non-college educated white men....that is Trump's biggest group of supporters.
 



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Here are the Top 10 lies of the November 2024 election campaign:
10. The Kamala Harris/Tim Walz ticket are not the first Communists selected by the Democrat Party for President and Vice President of the United States of America.

9. The American Legacy Mainstream Media and Deep State RINOs are not culpable for any of the lies contained in this list.
8. Abortion will be outlawed outright across America Trump wins the Presidency.

7. Unlike MAGA Republicans, Democrats will hand over power peacefully with a Trump Victory.
6. Democrats believe in Biology (i.e. Science), and support Liberty, Veterans, the Military and the Elderly.
5. The Democrat Party wants only confirmed Citizens to vote in America.
4. The November election will not be a repeat of the November 3 2020 Insurrection because the GOP has eliminated the possibility of fraud with election reforms at the Federal Level.
3. Violent crime conducted by illegal aliens (e.g. homicide, rape, assaults) has not increased nearly 300% since January 2021.
2. Trump is Hitler.
And, finally. The Number ONE Lie of the November 2024 election:
1. Stop = End.

 
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