My Final Election Prediction

[noonereal]

Why does Trump do anything? Because he's a narcissist--what politician isn't. The difference is he is a narcissist that gets things done for the country and doesn't waste time and taxpayer $$$ on a bunch of garbage that benefits no one in the US.

Come on. Gets things done for the country? That is a ridiculous statement.

I am not in the mood. Belive and Santa, Jesus and Trump . I just can't care.

 

[Dr. Phosphorous]

He's right as clearly the odds are in Trump's favor.

Well...then I guess Trump didn't win in 2016 against Hillary, since the odds were in her favor.

Fucking idiot.

 

[Concerned American]

I am not in the mood.

Typical democrat to run away when they have no logical response. Put the lime in the coconut and call me in the morning. Moron.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Predictions which are just opinions are as the old saying goes like an ass everyone has one and the vast majority of times they are based on nothing more than what you want it to be. I'm not making a prediction because I don't know which way it will go.

But that doesn't describe the OP. His prediction is a reasoned.conclusion. So your comment is just a copout, really.

 

[Dr. Phosphorous]

Typical democrat to run away when they have no logical response. Put the lime in the coconut and call me in the morning. Moron.

Trump gets things done, alright -- highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression when Trump left office.

Such stupid ass garbage.

 

[noonereal]

Typical democrat to run away when they have no logical response. Put the lime in the coconut and call me in the morning. Moron.

I am a life long Republican who is significantly more gifted intellectually than you.fact

 

[Concerned American]

I am a life long Republican who is significantly more gifted intellectually than you.fact

Too bad, you're the only one who has ever claimed that. You're exactly what your handle says you are.

 

[Carl in Michigan]

I am going to preface this with a warning that I'm not going to tolerate trolling or off topic insults in this thread. If you disagree then explain why and adding some facts or data to support your reasoning would be a plus. If you're just going to come here and sling insults because you're aren't mature enough to hear a difference of opinion you'll be removed from the thread.

I believe Harris will win the election. I think she is going to carry the Big Three Rust Belt states (PA, MI, WI), but not necessarily all of the Sun Belt swing states. While I believe the Iowa poll will turn out to be an outlier, it is a bad signal for the Republican Party. It also coincides with some other recent polls showing Trump only slightly up in Ohio, Kansas, and Alaska, states he should be winning by double digits. While I believe he will win those states by more those margins, it underscores a similar theme and what I've stated before. Trump is losing Republican women to Harris over Roe. Abortion is one of those third rails of politics that Republicans have been warned not to mess with, but they didn't listen.

I think the Democrats will also win control of the House by approximately 15 seats. There were several Republican pickups in the 2022 midterms that were in districts Biden won fairly handily and with Harris surging at the end I think many of those reps will lose their seats as a result.

I think the Senate will flip to the Republicans with a 51-seat majority. Sheehy seems almost certain to defeat Tester in Montana, but I don't think Moreno will prevail in Ohio. I think the same Republican women crossing over for Harris will also stick with Sherrod Brown. The only monkeywrench in this scenario would be if Osborne defeats Fischer in Nebraska and ends up caucusing with the Democrats. That would leave a 50/50 split with Walz as the tiebreaker, hence, a Democratic majority. I think Fischer will end up winning, though, despite how close that race has been.

I'm fine with this scenario. Trumpism needs to die or the Republican Party will continue to suffer losses throughout the country. With a Republican majority in the Senate, we can stave off extremism from the Harris administration and the left and if history is any indicator, the 2026 midterms will favor the Republicans to add to their majority, absent something strange taking place.

More locally, I do think Trump will end up winning Nevada and I'm hoping that carries down to the state legislature. After the 2020 Census, the Democrats gerrymandered themselves into a near supermajority in the State Assembly and State Senate, despite the state beginning to trend to the right. They are one seat shy of achieving this, which would allow them to override the governor's vetoes. This would be bad for the state. If Trump does prevail, I'm hoping his coattails will carry down ballot and thwart their attempt at stealing the reigns. I also wouldn't be surprised if we see one of the three Congressional seats they hold flip to the GOP. NV-03 would be the most likely, but NV-01 or NV-04 are possible.

I do not wish to see Harris as president (I voted for Chase Oliver), but unfortunately, there is no other realistic scenario at this point. If Trump is not removed from politics the division in this country will continue to get worse and the Republican Party will only find it harder to appeal to a broader constituency that they need to be successful and we will see this country move further to the left.

All "I think..."
I think you're wrong. I'll bookmark this thread we'll see .

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

All "I think..."
I think you're wrong

Now use your big boy words and say why. As the OP lays out for the thread.

 

[Mac-7]

And illegals are LESS likely to commit violent crimes that legal citizens

Who gives a shit?

More illegals means more violent crimes than without them

 

[Lesh]

Who gives a shit?

More illegals means more violent crimes than without them

Hey dipshit

We’re safer around illegals than around legal citizens

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

I am going to preface this with a warning that I'm not going to tolerate trolling or off topic insults in this thread. If you disagree then explain why and adding some facts or data to support your reasoning would be a plus. If you're just going to come here and sling insults because you're aren't mature enough to hear a difference of opinion you'll be removed from the thread.

I believe Harris will win the election. I think she is going to carry the Big Three Rust Belt states (PA, MI, WI), but not necessarily all of the Sun Belt swing states. While I believe the Iowa poll will turn out to be an outlier, it is a bad signal for the Republican Party. It also coincides with some other recent polls showing Trump only slightly up in Ohio, Kansas, and Alaska, states he should be winning by double digits. While I believe he will win those states by more those margins, it underscores a similar theme and what I've stated before. Trump is losing Republican women to Harris over Roe. Abortion is one of those third rails of politics that Republicans have been warned not to mess with, but they didn't listen.

I think the Democrats will also win control of the House by approximately 15 seats. There were several Republican pickups in the 2022 midterms that were in districts Biden won fairly handily and with Harris surging at the end I think many of those reps will lose their seats as a result.

I think the Senate will flip to the Republicans with a 51-seat majority. Sheehy seems almost certain to defeat Tester in Montana, but I don't think Moreno will prevail in Ohio. I think the same Republican women crossing over for Harris will also stick with Sherrod Brown. The only monkeywrench in this scenario would be if Osborne defeats Fischer in Nebraska and ends up caucusing with the Democrats. That would leave a 50/50 split with Walz as the tiebreaker, hence, a Democratic majority. I think Fischer will end up winning, though, despite how close that race has been.

I'm fine with this scenario. Trumpism needs to die or the Republican Party will continue to suffer losses throughout the country. With a Republican majority in the Senate, we can stave off extremism from the Harris administration and the left and if history is any indicator, the 2026 midterms will favor the Republicans to add to their majority, absent something strange taking place.

More locally, I do think Trump will end up winning Nevada and I'm hoping that carries down to the state legislature. After the 2020 Census, the Democrats gerrymandered themselves into a near supermajority in the State Assembly and State Senate, despite the state beginning to trend to the right. They are one seat shy of achieving this, which would allow them to override the governor's vetoes. This would be bad for the state. If Trump does prevail, I'm hoping his coattails will carry down ballot and thwart their attempt at stealing the reigns. I also wouldn't be surprised if we see one of the three Congressional seats they hold flip to the GOP. NV-03 would be the most likely, but NV-01 or NV-04 are possible.

I do not wish to see Harris as president (I voted for Chase Oliver), but unfortunately, there is no other realistic scenario at this point. If Trump is not removed from politics the division in this country will continue to get worse and the Republican Party will only find it harder to appeal to a broader constituency that they need to be successful and we will see this country move further to the left.

Well reasoned. Agree with the reasoning.

But the wild card in this close election is which way the polling is "underreporting".

In 2020, it underreported voting support for Trump.

In 2022, it underreported voting support for democrats.

This time...?

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Who gives a shit?

More illegals means more violent crimes than without them

The Alamo of someone who has no argument and is very comfortable considering brown peole to be 'less than'.

1) More people equals more crimes

2) immigrants are people

3) therefore we need fewer immigrants

The blatant stupidity and cruelty of it just comes so easy, to you.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Hey dipshit

We’re safer around illegals than around legal citizens

Well, you have to understand. Mac-7 does not actually care about immigrant crime. It's a red herring, because he knows how he will look and sound, if he is honest.

 

[Mac-7]

Hey dipshit

We’re safer around illegals than around legal citizens

Wrong

If you are surrounded by illegals you MIGHT be safer than on the South Side of Chicago, but you are still in more danger than you are without them

 

[Dr. Phosphorous]

Who gives a shit?

More illegals means more violent crimes than without them

More guns in circulation means more gun deaths, but you MAGAts don't care about that.

You all get such a hard on about illegals because you are racists. That is the ugly truth.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

More guns in circulation means more gun deaths, but you MAGAts don't care about that.

Guns are objects that they love.

Foreign brown people are objects that they hate.

 

[Mac-7]

The Alamo of someone who has no argument and is very comfortable considering brown peole to be 'less than'.

1) More people equals more crimes

2) immigrants are people

3) therefore we need fewer immigrants

The blatant stupidity and cruelty of it just comes so easy, to you.

I think most legal immigrants have been vetted and background checked to a far greater extent than some shoeless peon who swam the river at midnight

Libs want to blend legal immigrants with illegal aliens and thats insane

 

[Mac-7]

More guns in circulation means more gun deaths, but you MAGAts don't care about that.

You all get such a hard on about illegals because you are racists. That is the ugly truth.

Guns are a separate issue that should be debated on its own thread

Try to stick to the topic

 

[Mac-7]

Well, you have to understand. Mac-7 does not actually care about immigrant crime. It's a red herring, because he knows how he will look and sound, if he is honest.

Thats crazy talk

Why would I not care about crime no matter what the source?