My Final Election Prediction

[DigitalDrifter]

I am going to preface this with a warning that I'm not going to tolerate trolling or off topic insults in this thread. If you disagree then explain why and adding some facts or data to support your reasoning would be a plus. If you're just going to come here and sling insults because you're aren't mature enough to hear a difference of opinion you'll be removed from the thread.

I believe Harris will win the election. I think she is going to carry the Big Three Rust Belt states (PA, MI, WI), but not necessarily all of the Sun Belt swing states. While I believe the Iowa poll will turn out to be an outlier, it is a bad signal for the Republican Party. It also coincides with some other recent polls showing Trump only slightly up in Ohio, Kansas, and Alaska, states he should be winning by double digits. While I believe he will win those states by more those margins, it underscores a similar theme and what I've stated before. Trump is losing Republican women to Harris over Roe. Abortion is one of those third rails of politics that Republicans have been warned not to mess with, but they didn't listen.

I think the Democrats will also win control of the House by approximately 15 seats. There were several Republican pickups in the 2022 midterms that were in districts Biden won fairly handily and with Harris surging at the end I think many of those reps will lose their seats as a result.

I think the Senate will flip to the Republicans with a 51-seat majority. Sheehy seems almost certain to defeat Tester in Montana, but I don't think Moreno will prevail in Ohio. I think the same Republican women crossing over for Harris will also stick with Sherrod Brown. The only monkeywrench in this scenario would be if Osborne defeats Fischer in Nebraska and ends up caucusing with the Democrats. That would leave a 50/50 split with Walz as the tiebreaker, hence, a Democratic majority. I think Fischer will end up winning, though, despite how close that race has been.

I'm fine with this scenario. Trumpism needs to die or the Republican Party will continue to suffer losses throughout the country. With a Republican majority in the Senate, we can stave off extremism from the Harris administration and the left and if history is any indicator, the 2026 midterms will favor the Republicans to add to their majority, absent something strange taking place.

More locally, I do think Trump will end up winning Nevada and I'm hoping that carries down to the state legislature. After the 2020 Census, the Democrats gerrymandered themselves into a near supermajority in the State Assembly and State Senate, despite the state beginning to trend to the right. They are one seat shy of achieving this, which would allow them to override the governor's vetoes. This would be bad for the state. If Trump does prevail, I'm hoping his coattails will carry down ballot and thwart their attempt at stealing the reigns. I also wouldn't be surprised if we see one of the three Congressional seats they hold flip to the GOP. NV-03 would be the most likely, but NV-01 or NV-04 are possible.

I do not wish to see Harris as president (I voted for Chase Oliver), but unfortunately, there is no other realistic scenario at this point. If Trump is not removed from politics the division in this country will continue to get worse and the Republican Party will only find it harder to appeal to a broader constituency that they need to be successful and we will see this country move further to the left.

Did you miss the thread that I already had started on this?

Your final prediction

In the end, with the deck so stacked against him, I will be surprised if Trump comes out on top. The entire MSM against him, his legal problems, (deserved or not they are there) the money disadvantage, abortion, etc. On the other hand, Kamala is a terrible candidate, and she would go down in...

www.usmessageboard.com

 

[Moonglow]

When exactly?

1978

 

[Mac-7]

1978

It was a serious question

 

[toobfreak]

Then you should have nominated a better candidate.

Takes a billionaire now to stave off the attacks from the left, from 6 day impeachments leaving office because they roused a protest into an all out riot, to imaginary Russian collusion, to fake J6 hearings, to pretending taking home the presidential records you were given is some sort of national security lapse, to 700 years of criminal charges because you actually think your multi-billion dollar luxury resort home might actually be worth that much, to being shot at by snipers.

No one but Trump could absorb all that and still remain on course and in the race much less be leading it.

THE ONLY THING REALLY WRONG WITH TRUMP is that he is too rich and too stubborn that the deep state can't bankrupt him, scare him or coerce him through bribery to join in to their globalist-totalitarian uniparty.

F A C T.

 

[Moonglow]

It was a serious question

indeed, I answered it.

 

[Mac-7]

Did you miss the thread that I already had started on this?

Your final prediction

In the end, with the deck so stacked against him, I will be surprised if Trump comes out on top. The entire MSM against him, his legal problems, (deserved or not they are there) the money disadvantage, abortion, etc. On the other hand, Kamala is a terrible candidate, and she would go down in...

www.usmessageboard.com

I’m sorry I missed your prediction

It summed up the problem for trump very well

 

[Mac-7]

indeed, I answered it.

I doubt it

Why did you pick 1978?

 

[toobfreak]

I've heard this every election of my adult life.

But isn't that the Left's message? That America is on the line if Trump gets back in office? I mean, the Earth itself might stop spinning on its axis if Trump is reelected!

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

I am going to preface this with a warning that I'm not going to tolerate trolling or off topic insults in this thread. If you disagree then explain why and adding some facts or data to support your reasoning would be a plus. If you're just going to come here and sling insults because you're aren't mature enough to hear a difference of opinion you'll be removed from the thread.

I believe Harris will win the election. I think she is going to carry the Big Three Rust Belt states (PA, MI, WI), but not necessarily all of the Sun Belt swing states. While I believe the Iowa poll will turn out to be an outlier, it is a bad signal for the Republican Party. It also coincides with some other recent polls showing Trump only slightly up in Ohio, Kansas, and Alaska, states he should be winning by double digits. While I believe he will win those states by more those margins, it underscores a similar theme and what I've stated before. Trump is losing Republican women to Harris over Roe. Abortion is one of those third rails of politics that Republicans have been warned not to mess with, but they didn't listen.

I think the Democrats will also win control of the House by approximately 15 seats. There were several Republican pickups in the 2022 midterms that were in districts Biden won fairly handily and with Harris surging at the end I think many of those reps will lose their seats as a result.

I think the Senate will flip to the Republicans with a 51-seat majority. Sheehy seems almost certain to defeat Tester in Montana, but I don't think Moreno will prevail in Ohio. I think the same Republican women crossing over for Harris will also stick with Sherrod Brown. The only monkeywrench in this scenario would be if Osborne defeats Fischer in Nebraska and ends up caucusing with the Democrats. That would leave a 50/50 split with Walz as the tiebreaker, hence, a Democratic majority. I think Fischer will end up winning, though, despite how close that race has been.

I'm fine with this scenario. Trumpism needs to die or the Republican Party will continue to suffer losses throughout the country. With a Republican majority in the Senate, we can stave off extremism from the Harris administration and the left and if history is any indicator, the 2026 midterms will favor the Republicans to add to their majority, absent something strange taking place.

More locally, I do think Trump will end up winning Nevada and I'm hoping that carries down to the state legislature. After the 2020 Census, the Democrats gerrymandered themselves into a near supermajority in the State Assembly and State Senate, despite the state beginning to trend to the right. They are one seat shy of achieving this, which would allow them to override the governor's vetoes. This would be bad for the state. If Trump does prevail, I'm hoping his coattails will carry down ballot and thwart their attempt at stealing the reigns. I also wouldn't be surprised if we see one of the three Congressional seats they hold flip to the GOP. NV-03 would be the most likely, but NV-01 or NV-04 are possible.

I do not wish to see Harris as president (I voted for Chase Oliver), but unfortunately, there is no other realistic scenario at this point. If Trump is not removed from politics the division in this country will continue to get worse and the Republican Party will only find it harder to appeal to a broader constituency that they need to be successful and we will see this country move further to the left.

On a scale of 1-10 what is your level of confidence with this prediction please?

 

[toobfreak]

I agree from a Constitutional perspective that Roe should have been overturned. Politically, it was an incredibly stupid thing to do and the Republicans should have left it alone.

In other words, you are faulting the GOP for following the law and doing the right thing regardless of whether it hurts them personally and should have put party over nation just like the democrats do.

 

[Moonglow]

I doubt it

Why did you pick 1978?

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If you were to go looking for one event that shaped recent American politics more than any other — fueling the anger and contention that now feels endemic, eroding the nation’s faith in its leaders, and elevating radical alternatives in their place — the 2008 financial crisis would be a strong contender. It was the point at which America broke down, political consensus went up in smoke, and long-standing assumptions about how society should be organized, and for whose benefit, came under scrutiny.

The clearest expression of this popular discontent came, of course, on the political right with the election of Donald Trump. But the 2008 financial crisis also produced a new strain of populism on the left. Or, rather, it revived an old strain of economic populism that would have been familiar to Democrats of the New Deal era but had fallen dormant in the decades before the crisis, when enthusiasm for regulating financial markets and suspicion of Wall Street banks was pushed to the margins. The crash brought it roaring back and, in so doing, raised a series of bedrock questions: How had the Democratic Party, traditionally the champion of workers, come to identify so strongly with Wall Street? Who made this happen and why? What could be done to return the party to its working-class roots? And who should lead the transition to a new era?

There is a backstory that illuminates the Democratic Party’s embrace of finance in the years leading up to the crash — a story that begins in 1978. At the time, Democrats were still reliable partisans of the New Deal, but the steady economic progress of the American middle class was coming to a turbulent end. Jimmy Carter was president. He was struggling, without much success, to manage an economy buffeted by inflation, oil shocks and recessions — problems for which his party had no answers. A conservative countermovement of business groups and Republican politicians was beginning to gather force. One of history’s critical inflection points arrived that fall, when Wall Street made its first deep incursion into the Democratic Party in a way that would have lasting significance, although it passed mostly unnoticed at the time.

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How 1978 Shifted Power In America And Laid The ...​

Talking Points Memo
https://talkingpointsmemo.com › Cafe




Jan 12, 2024 — Beginning in 1978, Democrats, over Jimmy Carter's objection, embraced Wall Street's idea that encouraging “capital formation” was the surest way ...

 

[Lastamender]

The Shy Trump Voter Is Alive and Well - Liberty Nation News

However, if the shy Trump voter is real (and there are many reasons to suggest it is), it will mean a big win for former President

www.libertynation.com

 

[Natural Citizen]

I agree from a Constitutional perspective that Roe should have been overturned. Politically, it was an incredibly stupid thing to do and the Republicans should have left it alone.

In other words, you are faulting the GOP for following the law and doing the right thing regardless of whether it hurts them personally and should have put party over nation just like the democrats do.

Good post, toobs.

What you pointed out is precisely why none of these user predictions should be taken seriously.

The terms of controversy in reaching such conclusions seem to revolve solely around compliance with the terms of controversy pertaining to the reality show, combined with a foolish and naive sense of centrality that tends to come with the particular phenomenon, rather than the survival of the fundamentals which define our Republic, while simultaneously trivializing the impact/contribution of those who still do regard those fundamentals as central to the traditional American philosophy of governance.

 

[Moonglow]

In other words, you are faulting the GOP for following the law and doing the right thing regardless of whether it hurts them personally and should have put party over nation just like the democrats do.

Both parties do party over nation.

 

[toobfreak]

On a scale of 1-10 what is your level of confidence with this prediction please?

It should be a 10. Taz already said a couple weeks ago that he knew someone on the inside personally involved who told him that the fix was in for Harris.

 

[Moonglow]

We lose no matter who wins...

 

[Dr. Phosphorous]

I am going to preface this with a warning that I'm not going to tolerate trolling or off topic insults in this thread. If you disagree then explain why and adding some facts or data to support your reasoning would be a plus. If you're just going to come here and sling insults because you're aren't mature enough to hear a difference of opinion you'll be removed from the thread.

I believe Harris will win the election. I think she is going to carry the Big Three Rust Belt states (PA, MI, WI), but not necessarily all of the Sun Belt swing states. While I believe the Iowa poll will turn out to be an outlier, it is a bad signal for the Republican Party. It also coincides with some other recent polls showing Trump only slightly up in Ohio, Kansas, and Alaska, states he should be winning by double digits. While I believe he will win those states by more those margins, it underscores a similar theme and what I've stated before. Trump is losing Republican women to Harris over Roe. Abortion is one of those third rails of politics that Republicans have been warned not to mess with, but they didn't listen.

I think the Democrats will also win control of the House by approximately 15 seats. There were several Republican pickups in the 2022 midterms that were in districts Biden won fairly handily and with Harris surging at the end I think many of those reps will lose their seats as a result.

I think the Senate will flip to the Republicans with a 51-seat majority. Sheehy seems almost certain to defeat Tester in Montana, but I don't think Moreno will prevail in Ohio. I think the same Republican women crossing over for Harris will also stick with Sherrod Brown. The only monkeywrench in this scenario would be if Osborne defeats Fischer in Nebraska and ends up caucusing with the Democrats. That would leave a 50/50 split with Walz as the tiebreaker, hence, a Democratic majority. I think Fischer will end up winning, though, despite how close that race has been.

I'm fine with this scenario. Trumpism needs to die or the Republican Party will continue to suffer losses throughout the country. With a Republican majority in the Senate, we can stave off extremism from the Harris administration and the left and if history is any indicator, the 2026 midterms will favor the Republicans to add to their majority, absent something strange taking place.

More locally, I do think Trump will end up winning Nevada and I'm hoping that carries down to the state legislature. After the 2020 Census, the Democrats gerrymandered themselves into a near supermajority in the State Assembly and State Senate, despite the state beginning to trend to the right. They are one seat shy of achieving this, which would allow them to override the governor's vetoes. This would be bad for the state. If Trump does prevail, I'm hoping his coattails will carry down ballot and thwart their attempt at stealing the reigns. I also wouldn't be surprised if we see one of the three Congressional seats they hold flip to the GOP. NV-03 would be the most likely, but NV-01 or NV-04 are possible.

I do not wish to see Harris as president (I voted for Chase Oliver), but unfortunately, there is no other realistic scenario at this point. If Trump is not removed from politics the division in this country will continue to get worse and the Republican Party will only find it harder to appeal to a broader constituency that they need to be successful and we will see this country move further to the left.

I think this is a pretty accurate assessment. I think Harris will win the popular vote by at least 5% - 6% nationally.

Harris' vote total is being underestimated in the polls. The polling models did not predict that 54% or 55% of the voters in the battleground states would be women. Harris is doing better than the polls suggest.

I think Harris will win PA, MI, and WI. I think she also has the edge in NC, GA, and AZ. I think Harris might lose NV, because female turnout is not as strong in that state and NV does not have a large college-educated population and college-educated voters favor Harris.

I will not be surprised if Harris also wins in places like Iowa, Florida, Texas, and Ohio.

If Cruz loses in Texas or Rick Scott loses in FL, then I think the Democrats have a decent opportunity to keep control of the Senate. But the Democrats will definitely win the House.

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

I think this is a pretty accurate assessment. I think Harris will win the popular vote by at least 5% - 6% nationally.

Harris' vote total is being underestimated in the polls. The polling models did not predict that 54% or 55% of the voters in the battleground states would be women. Harris is doing better than the polls suggest.

I think Harris will win PA, MI, and WI. I think she also has the edge in NC, GA, and AZ. I think Harris might lose NV, because female turnout is not as strong in that state and NV does not have a large college-educated population and college-educated voters favor Harris.

I will not be surprised if Harris also wins in places like Iowa, Florida, Texas, and Ohio.

If Cruz loses in Texas or Rick Scott loses in FL, then I think the Democrats have a decent opportunity to keep control of the Senate. But the Democrats will definitely win the House.

If the Democrats don’t win the House will you leave this site forever? You said “definitely”.

 

[Dr. Phosphorous]

If the Democrats don’t win the House will you leave this site forever? You said “definitely”.

No. Democracy will survive a little longer, as long as Harris wins.

Harris and the Democrats will just have to tolerate you MAGA Nazis playing with your feces in the House and not passing any legislation.

 

[para bellum]

In 2020 thee was really high Trump enthusiasm

I don’t see that this time

It wasn’t enough them and certainly won’t be this time

Trump gained 12 million votes from 2016 to 2020 because he had a track record.

If you think he doesn't have enthusiasm among his supporters, I think you haven't watched a Trump rally. I might be underestimating Harris's popularity- I don't watch her rallies either...

In any case, I'm done with polls. We are in the election now and I'm looking at the big-picture metrics.

2024 turnout is on pace for ~135 Million. If that holds, Trump won't need 74 Million to win the popular vote. He's also picked up with the hispanic voters, and hasn't lost ground with the working-class voters.

Low-propensity voters (which includes younger voters and inner-city black voters) are largely on the sidelines. High-propensity voters (the so-called super voters) are turning out as expected.

States that were already 100% mail-in elections before 2020 are on target to hit about 80% of their 2020 turnout. IOW it's shaping up to look a lot more like 2016 than 2020...