I am going to preface this with a warning that I'm not going to tolerate trolling or off topic insults in this thread. If you disagree then explain why and adding some facts or data to support your reasoning would be a plus. If you're just going to come here and sling insults because you're aren't mature enough to hear a difference of opinion you'll be removed from the thread.
I believe Harris will win the election. I think she is going to carry the Big Three Rust Belt states (PA, MI, WI), but not necessarily all of the Sun Belt swing states. While I believe the Iowa poll will turn out to be an outlier, it is a bad signal for the Republican Party. It also coincides with some other recent polls showing Trump only slightly up in
Ohio,
Kansas, and
Alaska, states he should be winning by double digits. While I believe he will win those states by more those margins, it underscores a similar theme and what I've stated before. Trump is losing Republican women to Harris over Roe. Abortion is one of those third rails of politics that Republicans have been warned not to mess with, but they didn't listen.
I think the Democrats will also win control of the House by approximately 15 seats. There were several Republican pickups in the 2022 midterms that were in districts Biden won fairly handily and with Harris surging at the end I think many of those reps will lose their seats as a result.
I think the Senate will flip to the Republicans with a 51-seat majority. Sheehy seems almost certain to defeat Tester in Montana, but I don't think Moreno will prevail in Ohio. I think the same Republican women crossing over for Harris will also stick with Sherrod Brown. The only monkeywrench in this scenario would be if Osborne defeats Fischer in Nebraska and ends up caucusing with the Democrats. That would leave a 50/50 split with Walz as the tiebreaker, hence, a Democratic majority. I think Fischer will end up winning, though, despite how close that race has been.
I'm fine with this scenario. Trumpism needs to die or the Republican Party will continue to suffer losses throughout the country. With a Republican majority in the Senate, we can stave off extremism from the Harris administration and the left and if history is any indicator, the 2026 midterms will favor the Republicans to add to their majority, absent something strange taking place.
More locally, I do think Trump will end up winning Nevada and I'm hoping that carries down to the state legislature. After the 2020 Census, the Democrats gerrymandered themselves into a near supermajority in the State Assembly and State Senate, despite the state beginning to trend to the right. They are one seat shy of achieving this, which would allow them to override the governor's vetoes. This would be bad for the state. If Trump does prevail, I'm hoping his coattails will carry down ballot and thwart their attempt at stealing the reigns. I also wouldn't be surprised if we see one of the three Congressional seats they hold flip to the GOP. NV-03 would be the most likely, but NV-01 or NV-04 are possible.
I do not wish to see Harris as president (I voted for Chase Oliver), but unfortunately, there is no other realistic scenario at this point. If Trump is not removed from politics the division in this country will continue to get worse and the Republican Party will only find it harder to appeal to a broader constituency that they need to be successful and we will see this country move further to the left.
