"Climate models project an increase in fire risk across the U.S.
by 2050, based on a trend toward drier conditions that favor fire activity and an increase in the frequency of extreme events,"
"Through August of this year, the U.S. burned area topped 2.5 million hectares (6.17 million acres), according to a fire emissions database that incorporates burned area estimates produced from observations by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer instruments on NASA's Aqua and Terra satellites. That is short of the record 3.2 million hectares (7.90 million acres) burned in 2011, but exceeds the area burned during 12 of the 15 years since record keeping began in 1997."
I highlighted "
by 2050" because this is typical of the IPCC and other projections. None of these sources is suggesting that the world is going to blow up next year.
2050 is 37 years away, far enough to not be immediate but still in a lifetime.
The official understanding is that the
half-life of CO2 emissions is roughly 100 years (5 to 200 years: IPCC, 2001)
"Therefore a time scale for CO2 warming potential out as far as 500 years is entirely reasonable"
"The Keeling curve establishes that the atmospheric carbon dioxide ..... I get about forty years for the half-life of the CO2 pulse"
And, we are replenishing the CO2 daily. Whether it is 5 years, 40 years, 100, 200 or 500 years for the half life, the fact that emissions are increasing means that eventually, by 2050, it becomes too late. If we just keep business as usual, by the time 37 years has come and gone, it will suck. The world still won't have exploded, but it will suck. Why would we choose for things to suck?
From what I've seen, the contrarians first exaggerate the risk then argue that it isn't that bad, that the risk is far less than was even realistically proposed. My sense is that this is an emotional problem, an actual mental disability that makes them unable to deal with reality as it is and leaves them underestimating the risk.
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NASA - Climate Models Project Increase in U.S. Wildfire Risk
http://cfpub.epa.gov/eroe/index.cfm...d=0&subtop=342&lv=list.listByChapter&r=239797
CO2 has a short residence time
The bombtest curve and its implications for atmospheric carbon dioxide residency time | Watts Up With That?