Math: Donald Trump has 90-percent chance of winning GOP nomination

[Confounding]

How many Republicans won't vote for Trump if he gets the nomination? I know some of you dislike him a lot, but will you vote for him to keep Bernie/Hillary out of the White House?

Math: Donald Trump has 90-percent chance of winning GOP nomination

New Hampshire, South Carolina and now Nevada: the evidence is mounting that Donald Trump will be the Republican presidential nominee. Those who doubt a Trump victory believe that Republican voters will at some point come to their senses, while others see a narrowing field as one that favors Trump’s competition. We have always been bullish on a Trump nomination. Indeed, in September, we gave Trump a 45 percent chance of being nominated. Today, less than a week before Super Tuesday, we give Trump a 90 percent chance of winning the Republican Party nomination based on the available evidence.

Here’s why.

First, Trump leads in almost all polls — both at the national and state levels. Of the 19 national polls conducted since the Feb. 2 Iowa caucuses, 18 show Trump in the lead. This is very telling; indeed, if we take each of these polls as a proxy for the primary, Trump has a 95 percent chance of winning the nomination.

This simple count holds up when looking at the limited state level polling as well. Take Marco Rubio’s home state of Florida, for instance: to date, all the polls have shown Trump in the lead, with Rubio only a distant second. Of all the state polls conducted since the South Carolina primary (14 by our count), Trump wins in 11 of them, or about an 80 percent chance of winning

This is all very strong evidence of the eventuality of a Trump nomination. Second, contrary to pundit belief, Trump has not lost ground since Jeb Bush bowed out. A recurring argument is that Trump won’t be able to get more than 35 percent of Republican party votes, and that once the weaker candidates exit, stronger names like Rubio and Ted Cruz will only gain ground relative to Trump. However, our data does not bear this out. The polling actually shows the reverse trend — the majority of voters citing Trump as their choice when the list is narrowed down to Trump, Cruz and Rubio.

 

[Stephanie]

lol, the real question should be, how many sheep from the Democrat base will vote for a corrupted liar even while she is under Investigation and put her in as President?

 

[gipper]

lol, the real question should be, how many sheep from the Democrat base will vote for a corrupted liar even while she is under Investigation and put her in as President?

Agreed. All this absurd propaganda and hatred on Trump by the MSM, could be designed to keep the dumb and uninformed in line...and vote for the liar in a pantsuit.

 

[The VOR]

trump is a buffoon, and so is any idiot that would even consider voting for him, PERIOD.

 

[gipper]

trump is a buffoon, and so is any idiot that would even consider voting for him, PERIOD.

see evidence above.

 

[Snouter]

Anti-Trump folks always seem like they are on their period.

 

[Stephanie]

lol, the real question should be, how many sheep from the Democrat base will vote for a corrupted liar even while she is under Investigation and put her in as President?

Agreed. All this absurd propaganda and hatred on Trump by the MSM, could be designed to keep the dumb and uninformed in line...and vote for the liar in a pantsuit.

of course it is. Unfortunately we see many still falls for it. this was from reuter rooters. that rag who is in the back pocket for the DNC

 

[Stephanie]

Anti-Trump folks always seem like they are on their period.

 

[imawhosure]

lol, the real question should be, how many sheep from the Democrat base will vote for a corrupted liar even while she is under Investigation and put her in as President?

Agreed. All this absurd propaganda and hatred on Trump by the MSM, could be designed to keep the dumb and uninformed in line...and vote for the liar in a pantsuit.

Agreed. Notice, they are geniuses for backing Hillary and a devout Socialist, we are all dumb because we want Trump or Cruz. When put that way, a lightbulb goes off in Americans heads-----> DEMOCRATS= party of SOCIALISM-)

 

[Care4all]

lol, the real question should be, how many sheep from the Democrat base will vote for a corrupted liar even while she is under Investigation and put her in as President?

Many....

Because we've seen thru all of the republican lies calling her a liar, and all the "gates" they've put her through over the decades, where not a single one has been proven to be true.....we see how dirty the Repubs have been and how scuzzy they are ...however....

They have cried "wolf" one too many times to ever be believed.

Much like Trump has shown the world about how scuzzy and back stabbing the Republicans are.....

I do not believe Trump should be President with his temperament, lack of Constitutional knowledge, showmanship, ego, and mouth.... but God bless him for exposing the truth about Republicans like the ones closest to him in the debate last night and every previous debate.... he's been great imo and knows exactly the scrum he's having to deal with...

 

[tigerred59]

Uh, just a little history here.....white men overwhelmingly supported and masterbated over Sarah Palin and last I heard, she's selling moose chips on a corner somewhere in Alaska...IN THIS DAY AND AGE....NOBODY GETS TO THE WHITE HOUSE WITH JUST A WHITE MALE VOTE....NOBODY!! YOU ARE NEITHER THE MAJORITY NOR THE DEFINITIVE VOICE OF POLITICS...SORRY FELLA'S!!

 

[gipper]

lol, the real question should be, how many sheep from the Democrat base will vote for a corrupted liar even while she is under Investigation and put her in as President?

Many....

Because we've seen thru all of the republican lies calling her a liar, and all the "gates" they've put her through over the decades, where not a single one has been proven to be true.....we see how dirty the Repubs have been and how scuzzy they are ...however....

They have cried "wolf" one too many times to ever be believed.

Much like Trump has shown the world about how scuzzy and back stabbing the Republicans are.....

I do not believe Trump should be President with his temperament, lack of Constitutional knowledge, showmanship, ego, and mouth.... but God bless him for exposing the truth about Republicans like the ones closest to him in the debate last night and every previous debate.... he's been great imo and knows exactly the scrum he's having to deal with...

I am glad you can see that Republicans lie, but you are so slanted and propagandized that you can't see that Democrats lie just as much, if not more.

How is it possible you can't see the numerous lies of Big Ears and Cankles?

 

[Soggy in NOLA]

lol, the real question should be, how many sheep from the Democrat base will vote for a corrupted liar even while she is under Investigation and put her in as President?

Many....

Because we've seen thru all of the republican lies calling her a liar, and all the "gates" they've put her through over the decades, where not a single one has been proven to be true.....we see how dirty the Repubs have been and how scuzzy they are ...however....

They have cried "wolf" one too many times to ever be believed.

Much like Trump has shown the world about how scuzzy and back stabbing the Republicans are.....

I do not believe Trump should be President with his temperament, lack of Constitutional knowledge, showmanship, ego, and mouth.... but God bless him for exposing the truth about Republicans like the ones closest to him in the debate last night and every previous debate.... he's been great imo and knows exactly the scrum he's having to deal with...

Hillary is a serial liar.. PERIOD.