Lockdown Fans: What Is Your Endgame Plan?

[meaner gene]

I doubt it. People will start setting up shop in their homes and doing nails and hair on the QT. A new nail salon would have a hard time getting market share, in addition to being a very risk enterprise for a bank to loan to or a landlord to rent to. The possibility of a pandemic would make it too risky

I refer to a post vaccine world. How quickly it could be rebuilt. How to rebuild it under the current pandemic is a whole different story.

 

[Polishprince]

People will be able to buy a startup business at a tax auction.

I doubt that many banks would loan the money for such a startup, considering they could lose their whole thing when another pandemic or other event motivates the government to force the firm out of business.

Maybe large companies, your Walmarts and Amazons might be willing to take over the business at a major discount?

 

[meaner gene]

Tens of trillions. Then we'll spend the next 1000 years trying to pay it off.

You're mentally disturbed if you believe that's a viable plan.

Donald Trump in 2015 said that he could pay off the national debt (about $19 trillion) in 8 years. So we're not talking 1,000 years.

 

[Polishprince]

I doubt it. People will start setting up shop in their homes and doing nails and hair on the QT. A new nail salon would have a hard time getting market share, in addition to being a very risk enterprise for a bank to loan to or a landlord to rent to. The possibility of a pandemic would make it too risky

I refer to a post vaccine world. How quickly it could be rebuilt. How to rebuild it under the current pandemic is a whole different story.

All the equipment exists, as well as the staff. That's not the problem. The problem is getting people to make an investment and to attract customers. The customers right now are getting their nails and hair done in friend's basements, places without the overhead of a legit shop.

 

[meaner gene]

The free market has a solution. Banks as primary lenders get first bite of the apple. The landlords will probably get screwed, but then their properties become prime opportunity for somebody to buy them at auction prices.

Actually, both parties will get screwed if there is next to no money. Further, the landlord might be in a better position as leases give them a right to possess the equipment on the premises in case of default. And it is their premises.

You have three parties involved. The banks, the landlords, and the tenants.

The tenants get completely screwed, they'll lose everything unless the government bails them out, and it looks like the government is going to skip out on doing that.

Landlords similarly get screwed, they still have to pay taxes and utilities and unless they have a pile of cash to keep themselves afloat, they'll end up going bankrupt. They can inherit the mechanics of the businesses when the tenants go bankrupt, which would just get passed on to the banks.

This is where the banks come in. Banks as primary secured lenders get first bite of everything. They'll inherit ready to go businesses they'll sell for the balance on the mortgage.

 

[meaner gene]

I doubt that many banks would loan the money for such a startup, considering they could lose their whole thing when another pandemic or other event motivates the government to force the firm out of business.

Maybe large companies, your Walmarts and Amazons might be willing to take over the business at a major discount?

People would be able to buy businesses at 25 cents on the dollar. The real estate market would be depressed by about half. That means real estate would be in recovery mode, and booming like it was in the 1990's. Banks would go sub-prime again.

 

[Polishprince]

The free market has a solution. Banks as primary lenders get first bite of the apple. The landlords will probably get screwed, but then their properties become prime opportunity for somebody to buy them at auction prices.

Actually, both parties will get screwed if there is next to no money. Further, the landlord might be in a better position as leases give them a right to possess the equipment on the premises in case of default. And it is their premises.

You have three parties involved. The banks, the landlords, and the tenants.

The tenants get completely screwed, they'll lose everything unless the government bails them out, and it looks like the government is going to skip out on doing that.

Landlords similarly get screwed, they still have to pay taxes and utilities and unless they have a pile of cash to keep themselves afloat, they'll end up going bankrupt. They can inherit the mechanics of the businesses when the tenants go bankrupt, which would just get passed on to the banks.

This is where the banks come in. Banks as primary secured lenders get first bite of everything. They'll inherit ready to go businesses they'll sell for the balance on the mortgage.

They will try to sell the businesses for as much as they can, not just the balance on the mortgage. But what qualified people are going to be out there, able/willing to buy? Remember that after 8 or 9 months of shutdown, we're talking about 30% unemployment rates or more and the customers will have already found other ways to deal with their hair/nail situation.

 

[Cecilie1200]

Where will people work when 90% of all businesses have gone bankrupt?

The very definition of small business are businesses that people start up to meet a need. If the old nail salon went bankrupt, the new nail salon will take it's place.

Oh, it's that simple, is it? "Hey, we destroyed your business, but we'll just get another one, so fuck you"? And where's this new nail salon going to come from? Someone's just magically going to conjure up the money to open a new nail salon in the middle of a devastated economy, are they?

Do you have any clue how business and economics actually work, or do you just assume that because you've always had whatever you wanted available, that means you always will?

 

[Cecilie1200]

How many months? Six months? 12 months? 24 months? And how will you start back up when this is over?

They should have a working vaccine by the end of the year. That would allow full normal at that point.

Who is "they"? How do you know that? What happens if the reports that the virus is mutating turn out to be true?

 

[meaner gene]

All the equipment exists, as well as the staff. That's not the problem. The problem is getting people to make an investment and to attract customers. The customers right now are getting their nails and hair done in friend's basements, places without the overhead of a legit shop.

You have to wake up. You're still viewing things through the current economics. That will all change. Bankruptcy will be the operative word. Mitch McConnells answer to the states financial problems was "Let them go bankrupt"

Bankruptcy means those who still have or who can attract liquid assets get a huge buying opportunity.

 

[Cecilie1200]

It won't just be the businesses going bankrupt, it will also be the landlords and the banks, who won't be able to stay solvent if the businesses can't pay their rent or the loans without any revenue.

The free market has a solution. Banks as primary lenders get first bite of the apple. The landlords will probably get screwed, but then their properties become prime opportunity for somebody to buy them at auction prices.

What I actually hear you saying is, "I'm going to selfishly demand what I want right now, and I'm SURE someone will come along and do the thinking and hard work of making things be okay for me later. And I'm going to put the blame for all the people's lives that are destroyed on 'the free market' so that I don't have to think about anyone's needs but mine. It's not MY fault that others suffer; it wasn't MY demands that caused it. It's the free market that did it!"

 

[meaner gene]

They will try to sell the businesses for as much as they can, not just the balance on the mortgage. But what qualified people are going to be out there, able/willing to buy? Remember that after 8 or 9 months of shutdown, we're talking about 30% unemployment rates or more and the customers will have already found other ways to deal with their hair/nail situation.

Everybody knows the banks will accept any offer that pays off the balance on the mortgage. Anything above that goes to the mortgagee. So the banks done't care to maximize the price.

 

[Cecilie1200]

How many months? Six months? 12 months? 24 months? And how will you start back up when this is over?

They should have a working vaccine by the end of the year. That would allow full normal at that point.

That would be pretty quick action and it would be doubtable if it would come down that quick, but that would still be more than 9 months of lockdown which would crush a lot of banks, businesses, landlords. And then, of course, the precedent is set. Next year, many a new flu bug that kills people .

Actually pandemics only happen infrequently. Once we have a covid-19 vaccine, we'll be down to the normal seasonal flu's. And if everybody wises up and gets all their shots, things would return to normal.

Actually, viruses recur every year. They mutate up a new strain and come right back. Mostly, we don't pay a lot of attention because they aren't that serious for the vast majority of us. Unless someone comes up with a cure, this one is going to do the same thing. I think we might notice a mutation of Covid-19 turning back up in the winter, don't you?

As for things "returning to normal", you are revealing your naivete about everything involved, first with your assumption that a working vaccine is going to turn up on schedule, and second with your assumption that the world will just snap back to the way things always were right away.

 

[Cecilie1200]

The very definition of small business are businesses that people start up to meet a need. If the old nail salon went bankrupt, the new nail salon will take it's place.

Your compassion is awesome, turd. How long will it take for all these new business to become established do you suppose? Two years? 5 years?

What does compassion have to do with it. It's pure keynesian economics. And the more businesses that go bankrupt, the easier it is to replace them.
People will be able to buy a startup business at a tax auction.

With what money?

 

[Cecilie1200]

How many months? Six months? 12 months? 24 months? And how will you start back up when this is over?

They should have a working vaccine by the end of the year. That would allow full normal at that point.

8 months? You're fucking insane.

They know the development cycle, and people like Bill Gates are working on the production end. So as soon as they have a working vaccine, it will weeks instead of months, to ramp up the numbers.

Who the fuck is this "they" you keep airily asserting is going to pop up and give you whatever you want?

 

[meaner gene]

Oh, it's that simple, is it? "Hey, we destroyed your business, but we'll just get another one, so fuck you"?

If you don't like capitalism, move to Cuba.
If you want socialism, do a write in for Bernie Sanders. Otherwise you have to work with the economic system we chose.

 

[Cecilie1200]

I doubt that many banks would loan the money for such a startup, considering they could lose their whole thing when another pandemic or other event motivates the government to force the firm out of business.

Maybe large companies, your Walmarts and Amazons might be willing to take over the business at a major discount?

People would be able to buy businesses at 25 cents on the dollar. The real estate market would be depressed by about half. That means real estate would be in recovery mode, and booming like it was in the 1990's. Banks would go sub-prime again.

And your source for all of these numbers and assertions is what, exactly?

Real estate was able to "boom" because there were people with money. I don't know if you've noticed, but we've wiped most of that out. This isn't a matter of one group of people going broke through their own mistakes, and another group of people having done well and being able to swoop in. Most of the country is being wiped out all at once.

 

[Care4all]

How many months? Six months? 12 months? 24 months? And how will you start back up when this is over?

They should have a working vaccine by the end of the year. That would allow full normal at that point.

Who is "they"? How do you know that? What happens if the reports that the virus is mutating turn out to be true?

if they find a vaccine that works on the present mutation spreading, then the following years... people get a booster shot, that includes the latest mutation as well.... it means there will not be a one shot, protected for a lifetime vaccine.... but vaccines/boosters will be needed each year.....

which is what I heard some doctor explain on a news segment about a week ago....?

 

[meaner gene]

They should have a working vaccine by the end of the year. That would allow full normal at that point.

Who is "they"? How do you know that? What happens if the reports that the virus is mutating turn out to be true?

The economics are based on a vaccine in 12 (to 18) months. If the virus mutates, or a new pandemic pops up, then it's time to execute "plan B"

And nobody has come up with a plan B for a multi-year global pandemic.

Cue planet of the apes (new series)

But in War of the Planet of the Apes, the simian flu flares up again, mutating to quietly spread through the last surviving people. Immunity against the original plague is no protection against the latest form of the virus, which causes a degenerative disease that leaves humans mute and animalistic.

The Simian Flu Pandemic is a major event in the film Rise of the Planet of the Apes which determined the fate of mankind. At the company Gen-Sys Laboratories, scientist Will Rodman created a supposed cure for Alzheimer's Disease, the ALZ-112. He tested it on a female chimpanzee nicknamed Bright Eyes.

 

[Cecilie1200]

All the equipment exists, as well as the staff. That's not the problem. The problem is getting people to make an investment and to attract customers. The customers right now are getting their nails and hair done in friend's basements, places without the overhead of a legit shop.

You have to wake up. You're still viewing things through the current economics. That will all change. Bankruptcy will be the operative word. Mitch McConnells answer to the states financial problems was "Let them go bankrupt"

Bankruptcy means those who still have or who can attract liquid assets get a huge buying opportunity.

YOU have to wake up, because you're still viewing things through the half-assed, using-jargon-makes-me-an-expert lens of previous economic situations, and totally missing the unique facts of THIS economic situation. Only an utter selfish, juvenile dumbass thinks, "Oh, it's okay if everyone goes bankrupt, so long as I have what I need" is any kind of strategy.

I have a newsflash for you, Einstein: anyone who has any money at the end of your timeframe is going to have no interest whatsoever in opening nail salons or the vast majority of small business types. Small businesses are started by individuals who get together their own savings and borrow on their good credit in order to work long hours on a shoestring budget with virtually no profits - often in the red - for years so that they can FINALLY build up a narrow profit margin that allows the business to pay for itself instead of living off of the owner's credit rating.

If we reopened right now, we'd be hard-pressed to find people willing to replace the small businesses that will have closed for good, let alone people who also have the financial position necessary to do so. And if we follow YOUR imbecilic, pie-in-the-sky plan of "Oh, let's just stay closed until the vaccine - which I'm just SURE the sky fairies will drop off soon - and it'll be fine", then it's going to be a near-impossibility.